Texas Winter 2021-2022

[bubba hotep]

Will the Happy Hour runs deliver? 12K NAM will run out to 90hrs which will be capturing the system. 18z GFS is notorious for cranking things up

[Iceresistance]

Will the Happy Hour runs deliver? 12K NAM will run out to 90hrs which will be capturing the system. 18z GFS is notorious for cranking things up

Especially what happened Yesterday, it was Insane. (Also could have been the ceiling? It has the highest totals so far on the storm)

[SoupBone]

So I'm really late to this thread. What's it looking like for Houston with this system? Freezing rain?

[txtwister78]

Models really cranking out some impressive rainfall totals for tomorrow across SCTX from SAT/AUS points east and SE.

[Iceresistance]

Brent got NAMed on the 18z run.

(I did too, but he's the winner)

[South Texas Storms]

So I'm really late to this thread. What's it looking like for Houston with this system? Freezing rain?

Cold rain looks most likely right now, but can't rule out the precipitation ending as freezing rain if the cold air arrives a bit earlier than expected.

[txtwister78]

Brent got NAMed on the 18z run.

(I did too, but he's the winner)

One thing I'll say about the 18z NAM (still early) but it's definitely "warmer" than the 12z GFS. Core of the cold confined to the panhandle as the heavier precip begins over N TX (would be all rain initially at least). Something to watch tomorrow to see how that unfolds.

[Haris]

Brent got NAMed on the 18z run.

(I did too, but he's the winner)

One thing I'll say about the 18z NAM (still early) but it's definitely "warmer" than the 12z GFS. Core of the cold confined to the panhandle as the heavier precip begins over N TX (would be all rain initially at least). Something to watch tomorrow to see how that unfolds.

I think More so because upper low is up in Colorado. Way N of Euro too.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Something else to keep in mind. I just saw a report from a trusted local meteorologist who says there were no upper air soundings from Mexico fed into any of the 12z models. That certainly will have an impact.

What does this mean, if you don’t mind me asking?

[Ntxw]

The trough trend is deeper. Regardless of the surface I'm getting big blizzard vibes from the classics in southern plains. They all come with big trowal.

[Brent]

The trough trend is deeper. Regardless of the surface I'm getting big blizzard vibes from the classics in southern plains. They all come with big trowal.

Everything I'm reading here today it sure sounds like bringing up the B word is inevitable

definitely got NAM'ed

[Iceresistance]

The trough trend is deeper. Regardless of the surface I'm getting big blizzard vibes from the classics in southern plains. They all come with big trowal.

I haven't had a Blizzard Warning since 2011, this could break it

[txtwister78]

Brent got NAMed on the 18z run.

(I did too, but he's the winner)

One thing I'll say about the 18z NAM (still early) but it's definitely "warmer" than the 12z GFS. Core of the cold confined to the panhandle as the heavier precip begins over N TX (would be all rain initially at least). Something to watch tomorrow to see how that unfolds.

I think More so because upper low is up in Colorado. Way N of Euro too.

Yup...which means it's going to dry slot the heck out of W TX "if" true and cut precip off faster. Can already see that on its 500mb (humidity levels/moisture feed at hour 84) across the SW/Baja region compared to the GFS due to that low placement.

NAM can do crazy things with its surface features though.....so not ready to buy that this far out.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, guess today is a bad trend day. With Euro ensembles and NAM on board, a little problematic. But, a day like this is normal, so far.

[txtwister78]

[Iceresistance]

18z ICON is trending SE Again, Higher QPF closer to the snow line

Waiting for final verdict once again from WeatherNerds

[Brent]

The trough trend is deeper. Regardless of the surface I'm getting big blizzard vibes from the classics in southern plains. They all come with big trowal.

I haven't had a Blizzard Warning since 2011, this could break it

Just watched a stream from a met here at NBC he mentioned a blizzard possible somewhere

But he's also not convinced the metro won't mix with sleet at the biggest concern time

[txtwister78]

ICON holds steady and now trying to put down a significant icing event across southern HC into C/NE TX. The uncertainty continues.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Sunday series of events:
-Wake up and check the forum; “dang, this is crazy. Time to start preparations”.
-Head to Home Depot and get new heat tape for the water wells. Also head to tractor supply and get new livestock water trough de-icers.
-Head to feed store and stock up on cattle and chicken feed.
-Spend the majority of the day getting animals and everything else prepared for the insane Weather the models are showing.
-Get 50% of everything done for the day and come in to check the forum.
-Euro model comes out and winter has now been canceled by the forum.

-Me after hours and hours of hard work and prep…

[Iceresistance]

18z ICON dumps a foot of snow over OKC on the 10:1 Snowfall Ratio, jeez.