Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

ICON holds steady and now trying to put down a significant icing event across southern HC into C/NE TX. The uncertainty continues.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2022013018/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_30.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2022013018/icon_T2m_scus_31.png

If you take a look across the model's various profiles and ignore the qpf for a second there is a pretty good standing that there is an area just east and south of DFW (through central Texas and the HC) that 700mb 0c doesn't cross until 18z Thursday. Warm nose is thicker there while most models gets the surface to freezing beforehand. That's the area I would definitely highlight for greatest odds of freezing rain.

Using GFS as example but you can plug the times in any guidance and generally get a similar look.

[orangeblood]

The ULL is going to eject out and follow along the Arctic Frontal Boundary, you can see it on every model iteration….If anyone believes the Euro depiction of the front than by all means that’s your horse but if recent history is any indication, the odds are definitely against you

[Ralph's Weather]

ICON holds steady and now trying to put down a significant icing event across southern HC into C/NE TX. The uncertainty continues.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2022013018/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_30.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2022013018/icon_T2m_scus_31.png

If you take a look across the model's various profiles and ignore the qpf for a second there is a pretty good standing that there is an area just east and south of DFW (through central Texas and the HC) that 700mb 0c doesn't cross until 18z Thursday. Warm nose is thicker there while most models gets the surface to freezing beforehand. That's the area I would definitely highlight for greatest odds of freezing rain.

Using GFS as example but you can plug the times in any guidance and generally get a similar look.

https://i.imgur.com/OEDaLD1.png

There likely will be a 50 to 100 mile wide swath of major freezing rain impacts. My initial guess for it is centered around a Del Rio to Paris line. North of I-20 and west of I-35 could see heavy snow that begins as sleet closer to I-35. Heavy rain ending as freezing rain south of that line. Maybe an area of light snow later in day Thursday along and north of I-20.

[cheezyWXguy]

Although it’s been a little shaky watching the euro and nam push back a bit, but I feel like I have to go with the icon. It’s consistency has been remarkable in both temp progression and precip. We’ve seen time and time again in winter weather events where other models will deviate and eventually conform to the icon

[Ntxw]

Although it’s been a little shaky watching the euro and nam push back a bit, but I feel like I have to go with the icon. It’s consistency has been remarkable in both temp progression and precip. We’ve seen time and time again in winter weather events where other models will deviate and eventually conform to the icon

They pushed back because they are amped. Strong SW/Southerly flow aloft they hold up the cold air. ICON does the same thing but it has the surface cold bleeding. By conventional logic that we know what's likely to happen? 1050HP to the north. It doesn't mean the Euro and NAM can't be correct, this is what separates a good forecaster from modelology to figure that out.

[Portastorm]

Something else to keep in mind. I just saw a report from a trusted local meteorologist who says there were no upper air soundings from Mexico fed into any of the 12z models. That certainly will have an impact.

What does this mean, if you don’t mind me asking?

Of course I don’t mind!

In order for computer models to be most accurate, one has to assume that the model includes all the relevant data sets. In this case all of the upper air data collected from reporting sites in Mexico were missing from the 12z models. So the models in that cycle run didn’t have a complete picture of what was going on in the atmosphere at the upper levels (500 mb, 250 mb … 20,000 feet, 34,000 feet, etc.) down in Mexico.

I guess the best analogy I can think of at the moment is having a football scouting report on an opponent but missing information about their tight ends.

[dhweather]

TXDOT is out today with the salt brine. Could this be a jinxing by our State boys? Maybe, mabey not, but I passed two full size tanker trucks on my way back from the Abilene area on 20 between Ranger Hill and Aledo.

NTTA did it a few weeks ago over a slight chance of icing. Nothing happened, and no idea how much that costs to do, but I'm sure its not cheap.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Something else to keep in mind. I just saw a report from a trusted local meteorologist who says there were no upper air soundings from Mexico fed into any of the 12z models. That certainly will have an impact.

What does this mean, if you don’t mind me asking?

Of course I don’t mind!

In order for computer models to be most accurate, one has to assume that the model includes all the relevant data sets. In this case all of the upper air data collected from reporting sites in Mexico were missing from the 12z models. So the models in that cycle run didn’t have a complete picture of what was going on in the atmosphere at the upper levels (500 mb, 250 mb … 20,000 feet, 34,000 feet, etc.) down in Mexico.

I guess the best analogy I can think of at the moment is having a football scouting report on an opponent but missing information about their tight ends.

Thanks for the detailed breakdown!!! And oof, looks like 18z might be quite interesting

[Texas Snow]

18z GFS ain’t budging

[Ntxw]

18z GFS ain’t budging

It's happy hour we toss .

[snowballzzz]

18z GFS still on board. Not much change from the 12z. We always go through this same thing, every year. Give it a couple more days and the models will all *mostly* be in agreeance again.

[Cerlin]

uh…is that a Euro-like dry slot on the 18z GFS over OKC? (I know it reestablished precipitation but I’d like to not have less snow than everyone else)

[dhweather]

This looks like all kinds of fun. I opted to perform routine maintenance on our generator today, doing it in freezing weather would not be fun.

[Quixotic]

Bleeding cold is a harbinger of good things. Means the upper storm is holding back. The cold will get here and it will be faster and colder than predicted.

[Iceresistance]

uh…is that a Euro-like snow hole on the 18z GFS over OKC? (I know it reestablished precipitation but I’d like to not have less snow than everyone else)

No, the dry slot is in Western Oklahoma & Panhandle Texas

[snowballzzz]

uh…is that a Euro-like dry slot on the 18z GFS over OKC? (I know it reestablished precipitation but I’d like to not have less snow than everyone else)

looks like it nails OKC and even has a second round on the back end come through most of OK by Thurs night/Fri.

[Cerlin]

uh…is that a Euro-like dry slot on the 18z GFS over OKC? (I know it reestablished precipitation but I’d like to not have less snow than everyone else)

Yeah I think my models are bugging because the snow map looks fine. Whoops!

[orangeblood]

Bleeding cold is a harbinger of good things. Means the upper storm is holding back. The cold will get here and it will be faster and colder than predicted.

Yep, this forum is akin to an historical archive of all our learning lessons over the years….this setup is textbook for bleeding cold outrunning every model’s output

[Iceresistance]

This also includes Sleet totals, & I'm having a very hard time believing this.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_21.png

[Brent]

This also includes Sleet totals, & I'm having a very hard time believing this.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_21.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_21.png

Seems to have more sleet here than the previous runs