Texas Winter 2021-2022

[orangeblood]

Snow sleet and frz rain lines continue to trend southeast on GFS





Austin now getting close to Bullseye for core of frz rain

[bubba hotep]

This also includes Sleet totals, & I'm having a very hard time believing this.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_21.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow_scus_21.png

I actually like this map output better than the ones that try to differentiate b/w winter precip types. While it's obviously not an accurate snowfall map it does pretty clearly show where the best overlap of qpf and freezing temps occur.

[Haris]

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More impressive run yet since the start of the storm. Holy moly

[Ntxw]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/bNvmybR/EF28606-D-AF6-F-40-AF-A962-B9-FC3-CCFF887.png [/url]
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More impressive run yet since the start of the storm. Holy moly

RGEM. Cut it off for a short time and you're in business. Blizzard vibes! I remember the 2009 xmas bliz and 2011. The troughs kept digging and digging and didn't turn when they were expected to.

[orangeblood]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/bNvmybR/EF28606-D-AF6-F-40-AF-A962-B9-FC3-CCFF887.png [/url]
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More impressive run yet since the start of the storm. Holy moly

Making the Euro Op a stand alone outlier

[Ralph's Weather]

These maps are very close to what I expect. Though I think it'll keep trending SE a bit more.

[funster]

Ercot reportedly projecting 74.6GW usage for the upcoming storm. This compares to a 76.8GW peak last winter. :-O

 https://twitter.com/douglewinenergy/status/1487873155532267525

[Brent]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/bNvmybR/EF28606-D-AF6-F-40-AF-A962-B9-FC3-CCFF887.png [/url]
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More impressive run yet since the start of the storm. Holy moly

I'm not sure I've ever seen such agreement at basically day 4!

[rwfromkansas]

Last night, I saw a forecast posted from one of the Midland stations in West TX. Acted like nothing at all was coming...the post literally says "a little rain Wednesday." Based on these maps, they will get something.

[Texas Snow]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/bNvmybR/EF28606-D-AF6-F-40-AF-A962-B9-FC3-CCFF887.png [/url]
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More impressive run yet since the start of the storm. Holy moly

Do you have the similar Euro ensembles, just for fair comparison?

[Ntxw]

GEFS 18z is 6" of "stuff" for DFW. Brent is over a foot.

[Brent]

GEFS 18z is 6" of "stuff" for DFW. Brent is over a foot.

https://i.imgur.com/Pu1p2Yq.png

That keeps going up the foot was in Missouri

[Iceresistance]

GEFS 18z is 6" of "stuff" for DFW. Brent is over a foot.

https://i.imgur.com/Pu1p2Yq.png

I'm at 9-11 inches, this could be huge!

It could be even bigger than the first Snowstorm of February 2021!

[txtwister78]

Ercot reportedly projecting 74.6GW usage for the upcoming storm. This compares to a 76.8GW peak last winter. :-O

https://twitter.com/douglewinenergy/status/1487873155532267525

He updated that forecast already in a later tweet but definitely something to watch.

[Ntxw]

FWIW Euro ENs and GFS ENs long range has trough anomaly squarely over the southern plains. We have a shot at a great February. At least the first half, if it verifies CPC forecast for the month goes up in flames.

[Iceresistance]

FWIW Euro ENs and GFS ENs long range has trough anomaly squarely over the southern plains. We have a shot at a great February. At least the first half, if it verifies CPC forecast for the month goes up in flames.

Just like last February

[Texas Snow]

NWS FWD gaining overall confidence, but totals are much lower than what we are looking at on pure model outputs:


Key messages of the extended forecast: Increasing confidence in
the potential for an impactful winter storm by the middle of this
week. Very well below normal temps through the end of the week or
into the weekend.

The well advertised cold front will begin to work through North
Texas late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, followed by
gusty north winds and increasing precipitation chances.
Temperatures will slowly drop during the afternoon hours as the
front travels south. Afternoon temperatures across North TX will
range from the mid 30s to low 40s, with 50s across Central TX.
Precipitation chances will begin to increase early Wednesday
morning as the upper level energy approaches from the west. Our
thinking is that most of the precipitation during the day will
fall as liquid and will begin to transition to freezing rain/sleet
late afternoon or early evening across the far northwestern
zones. This transition will continue to spread south/east (across
much of the area) Wednesday night as the temperature profile
continues to cool. Eventually, a transition to snow or a
sleet/snow is expected to occur Thursday morning. Still, some
locations across the southeast could still see rain mixed with
wintry precip. One detail we keep noticing from the guidance is
that this system seems to bring a good combination of strong
ascent and rich moisture which support precipitation. However,
uncertainty remains moderate/high on where exactly the transition
will occur and how much ice will accumulate before the transition
to sleet/snow. While it is still a little early to discuss
details about accumulations, median storm snow total could range
from 1-2 inches across the northwest counties and near half an
inch across North TX. While there`s less predictability with the
ice accumulations, we can`t rule out some totals between 0.05-0.1
inches. Here`s the important disclaimer: these will change over
the next few days! All these details will continue to be refined
as we get closer to the event, so make sure to keep up with the
forecast updates. All we can do for now is to begin to prepare for
winter weather and potential travel impacts that could linger
into Friday.

Temperatures on Thursday are expected to remain below freezing
across much of the area with the exception of the far southeastern
zones. Highs will range from the 20s to low 30s across North TX and
low/mid 30s across Central TX. Lows Thursday night and Friday night
will drop into the single digits across the northwest and teens
elsewhere. Additionally, dangerously cold wind chill values are
anticipated each morning. Expect wind chill values in the -5 to 15 F
range Thursday morning and -15 to 5 F Friday morning. Make sure you
also prepare for the cold weather! The good news is that the sun
will return on Friday and with temperatures in the mid 30s we should
begin to see some improvement in the travel conditions. Temperatures
are expected to warm up over the weekend with highs in the 40s on
Saturday and upper 40s to low 50s by Sunday.

[orangeblood]

FWIW Euro ENs and GFS ENs long range has trough anomaly squarely over the southern plains. We have a shot at a great February. At least the first half, if it verifies CPC forecast for the month goes up in flames.

Phenomenal pattern….GFS now consistently showing winter weather events every 3-4 days.

Mother Nature rubber band effect!!

[Iceresistance]

FWIW Euro ENs and GFS ENs long range has trough anomaly squarely over the southern plains. We have a shot at a great February. At least the first half, if it verifies CPC forecast for the month goes up in flames.

Phenomenal pattern….GFS now consistently showing winter weather events every 3-4 days.

Mother Nature rubber band effect!!

Not just that, I have a very hard time getting above freezing for almost the entire run when it gets below freezing!

[Cerlin]

RINSE AND REPEAT!!!