Texas Winter 2021-2022

[gpsnowman]

Big increase in QPF for me on the Ukie. From 0.1 to 0.6" It's now lined up with most other guidance.

Love the ukie just for fact it puts stuff in wxman57's house.

https://i.imgur.com/lX9g1N6.png

Heat Miser won’t like that too much. I’ll happily take those 4 inches of snow here in SA

Amen. I'll take my 7 and call it a winter.

[Cerlin]

Big increase in QPF for me on the Ukie. From 0.1 to 0.6" It's now lined up with most other guidance.

Love the ukie just for fact it puts stuff in wxman57's house.

https://i.imgur.com/lX9g1N6.png

Heat Miser won’t like that too much. I’ll happily take those 4 inches of snow here in SA

I think you guys are forgetting that 57 enjoys snow. That’s the only time it can be cold and tolerable for him. I’m sure he thinks if it’s going to be below 50 it might as well snow.

[Brent]

Big increase in QPF for me on the Ukie. From 0.1 to 0.6" It's now lined up with most other guidance.

Love the ukie just for fact it puts stuff in wxman57's house.

https://i.imgur.com/lX9g1N6.png

I'm becoming a fan of the ukmet for many reasons

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Love the ukie just for fact it puts stuff in wxman57's house.

https://i.imgur.com/lX9g1N6.png

Heat Miser won’t like that too much. I’ll happily take those 4 inches of snow here in SA

Amen. I'll take my 7 and call it a winter.

I hope it’s the powdery fluffy snow too like we got last year. Not that slushy “Texas Snow”

[Ntxw]

0z Euro has DFW go below freezing about 10am Thursday and freezing rain for about 6-8 hour period. Snow in West Texas and Oklahoma. Looks a lot like it's 18z run.

[EnnisTx]

0z Euro has DFW go below freezing about 10am Thursday and freezing rain for about 6-8 hour period. Snow in West Texas and Oklahoma. Looks a lot like it's 18z run.

Anyone buying what the Euro is selling?

[Haris]

0z Euro has DFW go below freezing about 10am Thursday and freezing rain for about 6-8 hour period. Snow in West Texas and Oklahoma. Looks a lot like it's 18z run.

Anyone buying what the Euro is selling?

Not a nickel

[EnnisTx]

0z Euro has DFW go below freezing about 10am Thursday and freezing rain for about 6-8 hour period. Snow in West Texas and Oklahoma. Looks a lot like it's 18z run.

Anyone buying what the Euro is selling?

[url]https://i.ibb.co/djCxYMf/83-C88387-BE37-4-A4-D-B1-DC-AEAF1-EFB4672.jpg [/url]

Not a nickel

That’s what I was thinking, not even in the same neighborhood. That’s what most folks would refer to as pathetic.

[dpep4]

So how are we looking on the power outage risk for Plano/Richardson?

Right now NWS is showing 10-20 mph winds with gusts to 30 mph as the max for the storm. If so, we can probably handle, what, .25 inches of ice before major outages based on the chart? Odds of getting .25 or more?

I've got to make a decision tomorrow about heading down to Houston pre-storm or riding it out, and my hotel room is top floor, northwest corner. Long outage and I'm sleeping in my car with the heat on and the windows cracked, and the leave or stay requires a month long commitment and painful rescheduling if leaving.

[Brent]

Tulsa AFD. This warm nose better be wrong so much potential will be wasted

The biggest change in the data today is a significant warm nose that
will be slow to erode from northwest to southeast Wednesday night.
This will result in a prolonged period of freezing rain and sleet,
and less in the way of snow, especially for areas to the south and
east of Interstate 44.

[Ralph's Weather]

We will know a lot more tomorrow. I don't expect models to lock in before then.

[orangeblood]

We will know a lot more tomorrow. I don't expect models to lock in before then.

Except for the GFS, it’s been locked and becoming more loaded each run. Has almost unanimous support from its Ensembles as well

[texas1836]

So how are we looking on the power outage risk for Plano/Richardson?

Right now NWS is showing 10-20 mph winds with gusts to 30 mph as the max for the storm. If so, we can probably handle, what, .25 inches of ice before major outages based on the chart? Odds of getting .25 or more?

I've got to make a decision tomorrow about heading down to Houston pre-storm or riding it out, and my hotel room is top floor, northwest corner. Long outage and I'm sleeping in my car with the heat on and the windows cracked, and the leave or stay requires a month long commitment and painful rescheduling if leaving.

The more ice the greater the chance. Best to be ready before it hits with generators, wood, water and such. There are many variables when it comes to power outages and ice. My neighbors hood is a 100 years old, so we have no buried lines and monster trees.

[Ralph's Weather]

We will know a lot more tomorrow. I don't expect models to lock in before then.

Except for the GFS, it’s been locked and becoming more loaded each run. Has almost unanimous support from its Ensembles as well

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643608800/1643911200-Ue4U7sZ3RAY.png

I do agree there, it's consistentency is wild. I think it has the best handle but I wonder if even it is underdoing cold progression Wednesday and Wednesday night.

[DallasAg]

DFW finishes January with an average low of 32.2. Coldest January avg low since 2011.

A far cry from December's average low of 50.0.

[orangeblood]

We will know a lot more tomorrow. I don't expect models to lock in before then.

Except for the GFS, it’s been locked and becoming more loaded each run. Has almost unanimous support from its Ensembles as well

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643608800/1643911200-Ue4U7sZ3RAY.png

I do agree there, it's consistentency is wild. I think it has the best handle but I wonder if even it is underdoing cold progression Wednesday and Wednesday night.

06Z Euro now going to GFS solution, I’d imagine NAM should begin trending this direction over next few runs

[HockeyTx82]

Speaking of cold, I don't see wxman57 doing this anytime soon.

https://youtu.be/8MqbdX6n6yY

In an odd way I would like to try it but

[Ralph's Weather]

DFW finishes January with an average low of 32.2. Coldest January avg low since 2011.

A far cry from December's average low of 50.0.

Jan did not have any especially cold periods but it was consistently cold in the mornings because it was such a dry month.
December was very mild, Jan dry but chilly and Feb looks cold and wet.

[JDawg512]

Meanwhile a flood watch has been issued for the Austin metro and points east today. The rain this morning has been heavy enough to awake me from my long slumber.

[Ralph's Weather]

ICON went cold with freeze line into DFW at 9pm and Tyler by midnight. GFS is around midnight for DFW and 6am for Tyler. Canadian is midnight for DFW and noon for Tyler. NAM is noon for DFW. Oz Euro was 6am for DFW and 3pm for Tyler, awaiting 06Z to load on TT.