Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

Not a lot of change from 12z ICON. Lots of qpf below freezing duration for nearly all of Thursday. Smidge slower at 500mb which has been trend lately across all models.

[EnnisTx]

Temp Profile and QPF wise, the December 2013 "Cobblestone Event" is about as close of an analog to this one as I've found...probably best to prepare for something similar and potentially worse

I'll be setting right here in my recliner with computer in lap and a hot cup of coffee, so I'm prepared to watch this unfold. Once it starts, if people will just stay off the roads unless it's an emergency, that would greatly help those trying to mitigate the situation as best as possible to do their dangerous jobs on the roads.

I'll be doing the same thing too.

(Also KWTV once said that there is a chance the Roads may have to be shut down because of the storm Yesterday)

But i will be doing it in style! Retirement style that is... Looks like you have a few years left to get there.

[TheProfessor]

Not a lot of change from 12z ICON. Lots of qpf below freezing duration for nearly all of Thursday. Smidge slower at 500mb which has been trend lately across all models.

I'm just hoping I don't have to deal with mixing issue the ICON has for me. Especially by 9z Wednesday. Think it should be all snow here by then. Otherwise that's going to greatly reduce my snow.

[Ntxw]

I've noticed a very heavy area of snow across Missouri & into Illinois that could trend SW if the ULL that generates the snowfall is further SW.

EDIT: I don't know where that system has to be for the heavy snow to trend SW

Send the upper energy deeper into the baja initially. Slow it down some more and allow the cold to infiltrate deeper before precip breaks out. Detach from the northern branch and cut off the ULL deformation band wraps it all up tightly.

[Brent]

Brent, what is the snowfall showing on the TWC?

Hasn't changed in 2 days other than more snow on Thursday 5-8 Wednesday night 1-3 Thursday even 1-3 Thursday night. It has nothing mixed after Wednesday during the day

NWS graphic

[orangeblood]

I've noticed a very heavy area of snow across Missouri & into Illinois that could trend SW if the ULL that generates the snowfall is further SW.

EDIT: I don't know where that system has to be for the heavy snow to trend SW

Send the upper energy deeper into the baja initially. Slow it down some more and allow the cold to infiltrate deeper before precip breaks out. Detach from the northern branch and cut off the ULL deformation band wraps it all up tightly.

2nd precip band is much more juiced up Thursday morning, Major Ice/Sleet Storm criteria on ICON

[Iceresistance]

Brent, what is the snowfall showing on the TWC?

Hasn't changed in 2 days other than more snow on Thursday 5-8 Wednesday night 1-3 Thursday even 1-3 Thursday night. It has nothing mixed after Wednesday during the day

NWS graphic

https://i.ibb.co/gr23fKc/Storm-Snow-Amt-1.png

Combine all 3 things, & it will be 7-14 inches of snow possible for the entire system for Tulsa, still, the ceiling for this storm is still yet to be known.

[Brent]

I wonder what extreme means

[Cerlin]

Ever so slightly worried about whatever dry air the models seem to be showing over Western Oklahoma. Don’t want that to shift towards OKC/Norman, we’ve been dry slotted enough.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS ever so slightly faster with freeze line. Smidge slower with trof.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm out skiing and donmt have time to cath up on the 42 pages, but i smiled when i saw the precip chart today. Now our dallas folks can stop crying!!! Hahahahaha. I'll check in on you guys soon.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS ever so slightly faster with freeze line. Smidge slower with trof.

These trends may seem subtle but it only increases qpf as it taps into deeper subtropical moisture and lasting longer. Notice the difference it makes for the same time late into Thursday. Oklahoma and parts of NTX may snow up until Friday morning.

[EnnisTx]

:spam:

I wonder what extreme means

https://i.ibb.co/Hgwv3br/FB-IMG-1643643546102.jpg

Maybe you don't have to chase it this year or move again?

[Brent]

GFS absolutely buries OKC and Tulsa verbatim this would be record setting

[orangeblood]

Ice Storm Bullseye going directly through the Metroplex....with 30-40 mph wind gusts, this could become a devastating storm from a power perspective. Also note: a foot of snow up towards the Falls

[CaptinCrunch]

GFS absolutely buries OKC and Tulsa verbatim this would be record setting

https://i.ibb.co/D8VBNLh/snku-acc-us-c-1.png

GFS fantasy land for sure

[Ntxw]

Barring something drastic from the Euro which my growing distrust with it only ever increasing, with Oklahoma WFOs already with winter storm watches and the wording from the AFDs, the Texas WFOs I think will pull the trigger today on the watches as well.

[rwfromkansas]

12z GFS ever so slightly faster with freeze line. Smidge slower with trof.

These trends may seem subtle but it only increases qpf as it taps into deeper subtropical moisture and lasting longer. Notice the difference it makes for the same time late into Thursday. Oklahoma and parts of NTX may snow up until Friday morning.

https://i.imgur.com/5ncgpuA.gif

https://i.imgur.com/eNQAprY.gif

It looks like the low is further north in northern NM, or am I reading that wrong?

I would think we would like that south, but it does show good precip anyway.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS ever so slightly faster with freeze line. Smidge slower with trof.

These trends may seem subtle but it only increases qpf as it taps into deeper subtropical moisture and lasting longer. Notice the difference it makes for the same time late into Thursday. Oklahoma and parts of NTX may snow up until Friday morning.

https://i.imgur.com/5ncgpuA.gif

https://i.imgur.com/eNQAprY.gif

It looks like the low is further north in northern NM, or am I reading that wrong?

I would think we would like that south, but it does show good precip anyway.

Key is the lead wave down in Mexico at the base of the trof, not the northern stream. Northern stream ejection is a dry one but the southern part is where the STJ branch is attached. The longer, slower it takes for that to come out the better. The Euro with it's terrible runs kick out the southern part fast and makes the northern branch dominant.

[rwfromkansas]

These trends may seem subtle but it only increases qpf as it taps into deeper subtropical moisture and lasting longer. Notice the difference it makes for the same time late into Thursday. Oklahoma and parts of NTX may snow up until Friday morning.

https://i.imgur.com/5ncgpuA.gif

https://i.imgur.com/eNQAprY.gif

It looks like the low is further north in northern NM, or am I reading that wrong?

I would think we would like that south, but it does show good precip anyway.

Key is the lead wave down in Mexico at the base of the trof, not the northern stream. Northern stream ejection is a dry one but the southern part is where the STJ branch is attached. The longer, slower it takes for that to come out the better. The Euro with it's terrible runs kick out the southern part fast and makes the northern branch dominant.

Ah, I get it I think. The yellow/orange vort is still ejecting out into TX and far enough south, correct?