Texas Winter 2021-2022

[txtwister78]

Wow...GEFS 100% locking it now with all members and slowly moving impacts further south.

[TexasStorm]

Think my friends are going to have a big surprise. Most of them are not buying into any thing happening because of previous events that were built up and then nothing happened.

[Tammie]

Wow...GEFS 100% locking it now with all members and slowly moving impacts further south.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643630400/1643911200-eAwOZz15gvo.png

Is it “moving” further south, or “expanding” further south?

[Cerlin]

GFS absolutely buries OKC and Tulsa verbatim this would be record setting

https://i.ibb.co/D8VBNLh/snku-acc-us-c-1.png

I am ROOTING for this!!

[rwfromkansas]

I think the GFS still has the snow a bit too far northwest since I think it will be a bit colder faster based upon my past experiences. I would bet it will actually end up being about a county to the southeast or so for the start of accumulations. Will know soon enough. Fascinating storm to watch. I just hope the crippling depictions don't happen with ice.

[Haris]

Wow...GEFS 100% locking it now with all members and slowly moving impacts further south.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643630400/1643911200-eAwOZz15gvo.png

Is it “moving” further south, or “expanding” further south?

Both but more expanding

[Ntxw]

Wow...GEFS 100% locking it now with all members and slowly moving impacts further south.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643630400/1643911200-eAwOZz15gvo.png

Cold air is moving south now along the eastern edge of the Canadian Rockies. Models will likely zone in on it pretty soon, I'm interested in the next couple of run cycles.

[EnnisTx]

Wow...GEFS 100% locking it now with all members and slowly moving impacts further south.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643630400/1643911200-eAwOZz15gvo.png

Is it “moving” further south, or “expanding” further south?

Don't worry, further South would be good for the DFW area.

[rwfromkansas]

Wow...GEFS 100% locking it now with all members and slowly moving impacts further south.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643630400/1643911200-eAwOZz15gvo.png

It appears to have a few more members focusing more heavily on snow in north TX, so I hope this is the case.

[txtwister78]

Wow...GEFS 100% locking it now with all members and slowly moving impacts further south.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643630400/1643911200-eAwOZz15gvo.png

Is it “moving” further south, or “expanding” further south?

Expanding probably better word to describe that output as a significant portion of the state is obviously going to be impacted by winter precip from this event, but the point was the threat of winter precip is now (at least per this output) growing for parts of SCTX and that's clearly a change/growing trend.

[Ntxw]

GEFS

[EnnisTx]

GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/mO6so0b.png

Now that's a beautiful map..

[Ralph's Weather]

Wow...GEFS 100% locking it now with all members and slowly moving impacts further south.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1643630400/1643911200-eAwOZz15gvo.png

Is it “moving” further south, or “expanding” further south?

Don't worry, further South would be good for the DFW area.

Model trends confirming my fears that I am in for a major ice storm. Only hope is for the cold to push further SE and get me more into sleet and snow, but I think the Ouachita Mountains will hinder much more of a SE trend into E TX. Here I am thinking the midnight Wed night to Thu afternoon period could feature near continuous freezing rain and sleet with some snow late Thu.

[Quixotic]

Barring something drastic from the Euro which my growing distrust with it only ever increasing, with Oklahoma WFOs already with winter storm watches and the wording from the AFDs, the Texas WFOs I think will pull the trigger today on the watches as well.

Not sure they'll put out WS Watches so early. They're still going conservative on amounts looking at the AFD. They'll wait until some of the higher resolution stuff is in range.

[Ntxw]

Barring something drastic from the Euro which my growing distrust with it only ever increasing, with Oklahoma WFOs already with winter storm watches and the wording from the AFDs, the Texas WFOs I think will pull the trigger today on the watches as well.

Not sure they'll put out WS Watches so early. They're still going conservative on amounts looking at the AFD. They'll wait until some of the higher resolution stuff is in range.

I thought about that given their conservative nature of late, despite the the arrow pointing towards a high impact event, but they have ramped up their ideas of dangerous travel so I made the guess!

[rwfromkansas]

GEFS just keeps nudging south and east. Amazing to see.

Edit to add so I don't add another post: I would expect a winter storm watch for DFW by morning.

I think ramping up the travel disruption talk helps prepare while still making sure you cross some T's first.

[losf1981]

Think my friends are going to have a big surprise. Most of them are not buying into any thing happening because of previous events that were built up and then nothing happened.

THIS! I've spent way too much time already this morning warning co-workers to be prepared.

[jaguars_22]

What’s the chance of this keeps sinking southward and a gulf low develops after temps are below freezing here in hwy59 corridor?

[Texas Snow]

Barring something drastic from the Euro which my growing distrust with it only ever increasing, with Oklahoma WFOs already with winter storm watches and the wording from the AFDs, the Texas WFOs I think will pull the trigger today on the watches as well.

This is from this mornings FWD AFD regarding watches. Sounds like they are just trying to pinpoint where to draw the map.

We have decided to hold off on the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch until we are more confident of which locations will/won`t see major disruptions or impacts.

[txtwister78]

Look at that moisture feed coming right into TX as the arctic air surges in from the north. Wow. High impact event for millions of people.

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1488195165374324739