Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman57]

Less cold air and no snow for the DFW area in the 12Z GFS. Lots of freezing rain and sleet, though. The model flip-flopping probably won't stop until the 12Z Wednesday runs. We'll be able to "see" the cold air in the Northern Plains on Tuesday. That'll help. Best not to believe any one model yet. I like how the GFS keeps Houston above freezing. My secondary Red River Arctic air diverter appears to be doing its job.

[Ntxw]

Barring something drastic from the Euro which my growing distrust with it only ever increasing, with Oklahoma WFOs already with winter storm watches and the wording from the AFDs, the Texas WFOs I think will pull the trigger today on the watches as well.

This is from this mornings FWD AFD regarding watches. Sounds like they are just trying to pinpoint where to draw the map.

We have decided to hold off on the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch until we are more confident of which locations will/won`t see major disruptions or impacts.

Hey they're the pros but I'm going to make a strong guess with very high confidence all of North Texas will see major disruptions . In the end they'll likely have to put everyone under WSW except perhaps the extreme southeastern counties of the WFO due to later passage of 32F. QPF is high for this.

[cstrunk]

Is it “moving” further south, or “expanding” further south?

Don't worry, further South would be good for the DFW area.

Model trends confirming my fears that I am in for a major ice storm. Only hope is for the cold to push further SE and get me more into sleet and snow, but I think the Ouachita Mountains will hinder much more of a SE trend into E TX. Here I am thinking the midnight Wed night to Thu afternoon period could feature near continuous freezing rain and sleet with some snow late Thu.

These are my thoughts exactly, it's going to be a very close call in the Longview/Tyler area. If the surface winds are more out of the NW vs. due N, the blocking effect from the Ouachita's won't help as much and the colder air would arrive sooner. Or if the winds are stronger than forecast it could arrive earlier as well.

Will need to continue monitoring the trend for the movement of the freezing line...

[txtwister78]

Less cold air and no snow for the DFW area in the 12Z GFS. Lots of freezing rain and sleet, though. The model flip-flopping probably won't stop until the 12Z Wednesday runs. We'll be able to "see" the cold air in the Northern Plains on Tuesday. That'll help. Best not to believe any one model yet. I like how the GFS keeps Houston above freezing. My secondary Red River Arctic air diverter appears to be doing its job.

IDK looks pretty cold to me and the 850mb temp looks extremely close to a changeover there on the 12z with some decent sleet falling which could help speed that up, but Houston is being "saved" by the Ouachitas and the Ozarks. You can literally see the arctic air being "blocked". Takes longer for that to drain into East TX and Houston metro as a result. Interesting phenomenon and something that we've seen before.

[Portastorm]

Less cold air and no snow for the DFW area in the 12Z GFS. Lots of freezing rain and sleet, though. The model flip-flopping probably won't stop until the 12Z Wednesday runs. We'll be able to "see" the cold air in the Northern Plains on Tuesday. That'll help. Best not to believe any one model yet. I like how the GFS keeps Houston above freezing. My secondary Red River Arctic air diverter appears to be doing its job.

It's a good thing you fixed your electric blanket, sir. You will need it later this week.

And please keep the freezing rain away from Austin if you can.

[txtwister78]

Wow...seeing some reports on social media of an earthquake (4.9) that just hit near Enid Oklahoma?

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1488202958923878400

[Ntxw]

Less cold air and no snow for the DFW area in the 12Z GFS. Lots of freezing rain and sleet, though. The model flip-flopping probably won't stop until the 12Z Wednesday runs. We'll be able to "see" the cold air in the Northern Plains on Tuesday. That'll help. Best not to believe any one model yet. I like how the GFS keeps Houston above freezing. My secondary Red River Arctic air diverter appears to be doing its job.

IDK looks pretty cold to me and the 850mb temp looks extremely close to a changeover there on the 12z with some decent sleet falling which could help speed that up, but Houston is being "saved" by the Ouachitas and the Ozarks. You can literally see the arctic air being "blocked". Takes longer for that to drain into East TX and Houston metro as a result. Interesting phenomenon and something that we've seen before.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1643630400/1643954400-iXhuBjkT8uA.png

FW had a good discussion about rain freezing at 30-32 vs the typical 28 for max accretion due to the winds in this event. I think this will play a role in east and central TX Thursday.

[orangeblood]

Look at that moisture feed coming right into TX as the arctic air surges in from the north. Wow. High impact event for millions of people.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1488195165374324739

Yeah, this is about the worst case from a population and infrastructure stand point....Major Ice Storm from DFW Little Rock Memphis DC Philly to NYC Yikes!!

[gboudx]

Think my friends are going to have a big surprise. Most of them are not buying into any thing happening because of previous events that were built up and then nothing happened.

Where were these friends last Feb?

I grew in NOLA and understand the "oh it won't happen" mindset that used to set in after a few hurricanes threatened but didn't pan out. But then the K storm hit and mindsets changed.

[dhweather]

FWD - remembering the 2013 "Cobblestone Ice" event.

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/december72013

[Ntxw]

12z euro is coming in a little slower and more emphasis on the base of the trough to the south.

[Texas Snow]

12z euro is coming in a little slower and more emphasis on the base of the trough to the south.

front coming through DFW a little earlier as well, compared to prior Euros

Edit: but Freeze line hitting DFW only slightly sooner. maybe an hour so really not big change since its this far out.

[HockeyTx82]

12z euro is coming in a little slower and more emphasis on the base of the trough to the south.

Not to complain but with all of the guests and still some new people around could we perhaps explain what this means in terms of impact you are seeing. I'm still learning and I've been around for 10 years. Haha.

Perhaps going forward it might benefit the board as a whole if we all do that. I'm guilty of posting back to you all meaning what on posts. Does that make sense what I am saying?

Like a map post and just Wow! What does wow mean, good or bad. Big time or game over.

[Haris]

12z euro is coming in a little slower and more emphasis on the base of the trough to the south.

Drier though since it moved N a little. Still too fast

[funster]

FWD - remembering the 2013 "Cobblestone Ice" event.

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/december72013

If it happens again this week we will need a new name for it like Cobblestone 2: The Cobbling

[Ntxw]

12z euro is coming in a little slower and more emphasis on the base of the trough to the south.

Drier though since it moved N a little. Still too fast

Yeah later in the run it makes that hard turn relative to the other guidance.

[SoupBone]

Less cold air and no snow for the DFW area in the 12Z GFS. Lots of freezing rain and sleet, though. The model flip-flopping probably won't stop until the 12Z Wednesday runs. We'll be able to "see" the cold air in the Northern Plains on Tuesday. That'll help. Best not to believe any one model yet. I like how the GFS keeps Houston above freezing. My secondary Red River Arctic air diverter appears to be doing its job.

I used to hate you for these posts, but after last year, I'm over these kinds of events.

[Tammie]

12z euro is coming in a little slower and more emphasis on the base of the trough to the south.

And about 3-5 deg warmer across the Metroplex by Thursday evening. I use the word "warmer" loosely, as 19-20 vs 23-24 is not warm.

Which metroplex?

[Cerlin]

12z euro is coming in a little slower and more emphasis on the base of the trough to the south.

And about 3-5 deg warmer across the Metroplex by Thursday evening. I use the word "warmer" loosely, as 19-20 vs 23-24 is not warm.

Which metroplex?

DFW is usually referred to as the Metroplex, so I think he's referring to DFW.

[wxman57]

And about 3-5 deg warmer across the Metroplex by Thursday evening. I use the word "warmer" loosely, as 19-20 vs 23-24 is not warm.

Which metroplex?

DFW is usually referred to as the Metroplex, so I think he's referring to DFW.

Yeah, but I was looking at the 06Z EC not the 12Z. Too early for 12Z. Never mind.