Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4201 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:32 pm

Euro snowing in KSAT moving to northeast on Saturday. 2011 the models are trying :D.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4202 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:34 pm

Ntxw wrote:Euro snowing in KSAT moving to northeast on Saturday. 2011 the models are trying :D.

KSAT? San Antonio?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4203 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:35 pm

Ntxw wrote:Euro snowing in KSAT moving to northeast on Saturday. 2011 the models are trying :D.


Yup just saw that...lol. Deepens ULL right over SA.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4204 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:36 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Euro snowing in KSAT moving to northeast on Saturday. 2011 the models are trying :D.

KSAT? San Antonio?


KSAT is SA. Airport code.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4205 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:41 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Euro snowing in KSAT moving to northeast on Saturday. 2011 the models are trying :D.

KSAT? San Antonio?


KSAT is SA. Airport code.

I thought it was just SAT? Not trying to be a smart ass, just thought everything in the US was a 3 letter code.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4206 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:42 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Euro snowing in KSAT moving to northeast on Saturday. 2011 the models are trying :D.


Yup just saw that...lol. Deepens ULL right over SA.

WOOOHOOOO!!! Bring the fluffy stuff!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4207 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:42 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:KSAT? San Antonio?


KSAT is SA. Airport code.

I thought it was just SAT? Not trying to be a smart ass, just thought everything in the US was a 3 letter code.


Identification code used (official weather reporting site) ....SAT is also used.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4208 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:44 pm

I think many of you in the D-FW area may be regretting that you wished for winter weather later this week.

http://wxman57.com/images/TX-ZR.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TX-IP.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TX-SN.png

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4209 Postby ROCK » Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:52 pm

Portastorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Less cold air and no snow for the DFW area in the 12Z GFS. Lots of freezing rain and sleet, though. The model flip-flopping probably won't stop until the 12Z Wednesday runs. We'll be able to "see" the cold air in the Northern Plains on Tuesday. That'll help. Best not to believe any one model yet. I like how the GFS keeps Houston above freezing. My secondary Red River Arctic air diverter appears to be doing its job.


It's a good thing you fixed your electric blanket, sir. You will need it later this week. :wink:

And please keep the freezing rain away from Austin if you can.



Agree!! Glad to see this is not a prolonged event though. Last Feb sleeping in my car has given me a slight case of PTSD.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4210 Postby LearnedHat » Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:I think many of you in the D-FW area may be regretting that you wished for winter weather later this week.


Who would wish for that? Power outages and ruined trees. Also no snow blanket to insulate plants when temps bottom out on Saturday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4211 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:06 pm

Yeah, I certainly didn't request an ice storm. Luckily we have a Fire Dragon Shantung maple that is supposed to just be one of the best trees for ice events.

Liking the slower trends today yet not holding back the cold much, with some speeding it up slightly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4212 Postby EnnisTx » Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:08 pm

LearnedHat wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I think many of you in the D-FW area may be regretting that you wished for winter weather later this week.


Who would wish for that? Power outages and ruined trees. Also no snow blanket to insulate plants when temps bottom out on Saturday.


It's kind of like a car accident, no one really wants to see it or deal with it, but they always slow down to stare. Hopefully we see more snow than ice, but things are changing by the hour.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4213 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:16 pm



Yeah these maps with some frames of colors looks pretty. But in reality that is hours and hours of light to heavy precip in cold air. Reality is a lot more dramatic than maps. DFW will shut down Thursday no doubt. With the forecasted sleet and low 20s, roads, sidewalks will be much worst than last Feb with the snow. A lot probably drove ok on the snow and will think they can brave it again, with a bad outcome.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4214 Postby Quixotic » Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:33 pm

Think the transition from freezing rain to sleet will be quick. Maybe an hour of freezing rain and then all pellets. Again, nothing model wise to support this, but if the freezing line is moving through DFW and expected three hours later in Waco, that's some serious movement and while the warm nose may be there, the cold will deepen enough to cause pingers and not be freezing rain. Remember the supercooled droplets that preceded the December 2013 event? I expect that same kind of process: super cooled drops of rain that cause the warm nose to erode fairly quickly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4215 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:


Yeah these maps with some frames of colors looks pretty. But in reality that is hours and hours of light to heavy precip in cold air. Reality is a lot more dramatic than maps. DFW will shut down Thursday no doubt. With the forecasted sleet and low 20s, roads, sidewalks will be much worst than last Feb with the snow. A lot probably drove ok on the snow and will think they can brave it again, with a bad outcome.


Nobody wishes for an ice storm. I’ve lived through several crippling storms up here in the Red River Valley since I moved here as a kid in 1979 and they are never fun.

I was a news and sports director for two local radio stations back in December 2000 when the Christmas Day ice storm arrived. Worked very long days that next week in the aftermath of a storm that destroyed a sizable portion of our power grid up here. Many big transmission towers collapsed in Grayson County and some were without power for up to three weeks.

But wishing—-removed-—doesn’t make anything happen or not happen. Besides, some of our “-removed-” on this board is nothing more than winter season frustration with a certain bicycle riding Heat Miser and his rubbing in Texas’ tendency to have warm weather! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4216 Postby WeatherNewbie » Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:43 pm

Quixotic wrote:Think the transition from freezing rain to sleet will be quick. Maybe an hour of freezing rain and then all pellets. Again, nothing model wise to support this, but if the freezing line is moving through DFW and expected three hours later in Waco, that's some serious movement and while the warm nose may be there, the cold will deepen enough to cause pingers and not be freezing rain. Remember the supercooled droplets that preceded the December 2013 event? I expect that same kind of process: super cooled drops of rain that cause the warm nose to erode fairly quickly.


from your lips to mother nature's ears
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4217 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:52 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Yeah these maps with some frames of colors looks pretty. But in reality that is hours and hours of light to heavy precip in cold air. Reality is a lot more dramatic than maps. DFW will shut down Thursday no doubt. With the forecasted sleet and low 20s, roads, sidewalks will be much worst than last Feb with the snow. A lot probably drove ok on the snow and will think they can brave it again, with a bad outcome.


Oh, yeah, do not plan on traveling anywhere up there between Wednesday evening and the following week. As of now, it's looking like mostly freezing rain and sleet. Neither matters as far as the roadways because surface temps won't let sleet melt, though it does matter as far as power lines staying up. We may not really be confident in how much of each until Wednesday afternoon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4218 Postby harp » Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:54 pm

I just learned from a friend that the latest Euro does give a little hope to those of us in south Louisiana.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4219 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:55 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Yeah these maps with some frames of colors looks pretty. But in reality that is hours and hours of light to heavy precip in cold air. Reality is a lot more dramatic than maps. DFW will shut down Thursday no doubt. With the forecasted sleet and low 20s, roads, sidewalks will be much worst than last Feb with the snow. A lot probably drove ok on the snow and will think they can brave it again, with a bad outcome.


Oh, yeah, do not plan on traveling anywhere up there between Wednesday evening and the following week. As of now, it's looking like mostly freezing rain and sleet. Neither matters as far as the roadways because surface temps won't let sleet melt, though it does matter as far as power lines staying up. We may not really be confident in how much of each until Wednesday afternoon.


Did you say following week? A little cold mongering there I see!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4220 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:57 pm

harp wrote:I just learned from a friend that the latest Euro does give a little hope to those of us in south Louisiana.


Well, the Euro seems to be performing the worst but I am curious. Which parts of south Louisiana and what is it showing?
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