Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

I just got NAM'ed

So did I, but you're the winner.

[jaguars_22]

Who knows by this time tomorrow we may have a gulf low develop and steal the show… how much further south can this track? Larry cosgrove thinks all the way to the gulf

[Portastorm]

I don't know which model will be closest to right for later this week ... but I sure do see some authoritative comments in this thread on model depictions of an upper trough that hasn't even been sampled yet by U.S. upper air data stations. As 57 has pointed out, until that data is collected and the models include that data ... you're not going to get a very accurate depiction of the "real weather" down the road.

[rwfromkansas]

Back north in KS, they used both salt brine and salt pellets plus sand. That was much more effective than the "treatment" they do in Texas.

Texas pre treats with brine to lower the freezing point of the water/precipitation and then uses Magnesium Chloride to melt the ice that forms and it works well. They also use sand as conditions warrant. I was a part of this process for many years.

Ah, good to know. I guess I only have ever noticed the brine.

[Tammie]

I don't know which model will be closest to right for later this week ... but I sure do see some authoritative comments in this thread on model depictions of an upper trough that hasn't even been sampled yet by U.S. upper air data stations. As 57 has pointed out, until that data is collected and the models include that data ... you're not going to get a very accurate depiction of the "real weather" down the road.

When do you think they will do that?

[Portastorm]

I don't know which model will be closest to right for later this week ... but I sure do see some authoritative comments in this thread on model depictions of an upper trough that hasn't even been sampled yet by U.S. upper air data stations. As 57 has pointed out, until that data is collected and the models include that data ... you're not going to get a very accurate depiction of the "real weather" down the road.

When do you think they will do that?

Probably the 0z cycle from tomorrow night. So when the model runs start rolling out tomorrow night 9-10 pm onward ... I think those will start to really hone in on things. Some here may disagree but that's my take.

[Ntxw]

18z icon, already one of the faster cold passages, gets more of DFW below freezing sooner. While we talk about the airport center, places like Denton co, parker co, Collin co etc will get there before that.

[Tammie]

18z icon, already one of the faster cold passages, gets more of DFW below freezing sooner. While we talk about the airport center, places like Denton co, parker co, Collin co etc will get there before that.

Where’s the front now?

[wxman57]

I just got NAM'ed

https://i.ibb.co/rmH4RJ0/namconus-asnow-scus-29-3.png

Keep in mind that the graphic "includes sleet". Since most of it will be sleet and freezing rain in the DFW Metroplex, don't expect 8" of snow there. You're kind of on the edge in Tulsa. Can't be confident about the sleet/snow line so far out.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't know which model will be closest to right for later this week ... but I sure do see some authoritative comments in this thread on model depictions of an upper trough that hasn't even been sampled yet by U.S. upper air data stations. As 57 has pointed out, until that data is collected and the models include that data ... you're not going to get a very accurate depiction of the "real weather" down the road.

When do you think they will do that?

I think the system moves onshore tomorrow afternoon. We should get that much needed data for the 0z runs tomorrow evening.

On another note, seems like a continued uptick in qpf on the nam, that green spot in Collin county sure is pretty. Once these models get a handle on the freezing line progression I imagine the sub freezing qpf will catch up in the SE portions of the metro - main question then is what form it will fall in

[orangeblood]

I don't know which model will be closest to right for later this week ... but I sure do see some authoritative comments in this thread on model depictions of an upper trough that hasn't even been sampled yet by U.S. upper air data stations. As 57 has pointed out, until that data is collected and the models include that data ... you're not going to get a very accurate depiction of the "real weather" down the road.

?? Assuming this is directed at me....This system is already on land/entered the Pacific Northwest so there should be plenty of data. I'm frankly just pointing out observations made after analyzing modeled data/pointing out biases in certain models that have been documented on here, is that not welcomed on this forum ? Opinions ? Just want to clarify moving forward

[wxman57]

18z icon, already one of the faster cold passages, gets more of DFW below freezing sooner. While we talk about the airport center, places like Denton co, parker co, Collin co etc will get there before that.

Where’s the front now?

It doesn't really exist yet. There is a boundary in British Columbia & Alberta, but the air behind it is not particularly cold (single digits and teens).

[gboudx]

Back north in KS, they used both salt brine and salt pellets plus sand. That was much more effective than the "treatment" they do in Texas.

Texas pre treats with brine to lower the freezing point of the water/precipitation and then uses Magnesium Chloride to melt the ice that forms and it works well. They also use sand as conditions warrant. I was a part of this process for many years.

We have the right person on the forum to answer these questions.

Thanks to all that replied. Was just curious, we'll have no reason to venture out on the roads if it gets bad. We're fortunate to not have that need. Assuming schools are closed.

[WacoWx]

WSW's extended south of Wichita Falls to include Abilene and Brownwood.

[Ntxw]

WSW's extended south of Wichita Falls to include Abilene and Brownwood.

Yeah San Angelo put out their counties. I know we have some posters out that way.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
248 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-154-
155-011100-
/O.NEW.KSJT.WS.A.0001.220202T1800Z-220204T0000Z/
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-Haskell-
Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-
McCulloch-San Saba-
Including the cities of Gannon, Sweetwater, Broome,
Sterling City, Robert Lee, Sanco, Silver, Bronte, Tennyson,
Ballinger, Benoit, Hatchel, Rowena, Crews, Winters, Pumphrey,
Barnhart, Arden, Mertzon, Sherwood, Carlsbad, San Angelo, Wall,
Eden, Live Oak, Lowake, Irby, Haskell, Throckmorton, Woodson,
Stamford, Stith, Anson, Funston, Truby, Tuxedo, Hamlin, Albany,
Abilene, Clyde, Eula, Dudley, Baird, Cross Plains, Coleman, Echo,
Fisk, Valera, Voss, Trickham, Brownwood, Indian Creek, Brady,
Fife, Lohn, Rochelle, Voca, Chappel, Cherokee, Harkeyville,
and San Saba
248 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of a light
glaze possible.

* WHERE...Along and north of I-20 starting Wednesday afternoon,
then expanding further south through the Concho Valley Wednesday
evening.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. In
addition, cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero could result
in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

[Portastorm]

I don't know which model will be closest to right for later this week ... but I sure do see some authoritative comments in this thread on model depictions of an upper trough that hasn't even been sampled yet by U.S. upper air data stations. As 57 has pointed out, until that data is collected and the models include that data ... you're not going to get a very accurate depiction of the "real weather" down the road.

?? Assuming this is directed at me....This system is already on land/entered the Pacific Northwest so there should be plenty of data. I'm frankly just pointing out observations made after analyzing modeled data/pointing out biases in certain models that have been documented on here, is that not welcomed on this forum ? Opinions ? Just want to clarify moving forward

It's not directed at you, specifically. No question that the models in play here all have biases. No question that the Euro, for example, has been the most inconsistent and seemingly clueless. Your comments about the models have not violated our rules IMO, so as far as I'm concerned they're as welcomed as any other comment. My point is that I just don't think anyone can dismiss any of the major models at this point. A lot of you guys think this whole deal is a slam dunk. I don't think so. It probably is a slam dunk that you Metroplexers are going to see a nasty wintry mix. But for the rest of us, there are a lot more questions.

I don't agree with you about the location of the upper level system in question which will be the upper level trough that digs south. In my opinion it is here (yellow circled area):

[wxman57]

Here's a current weather map that goes all the way north into northern British Columbia and Alberta. No cold air there yet.

http://wxman57.com/images/wxmap.JPG

[Ntxw]

I don't know which model will be closest to right for later this week ... but I sure do see some authoritative comments in this thread on model depictions of an upper trough that hasn't even been sampled yet by U.S. upper air data stations. As 57 has pointed out, until that data is collected and the models include that data ... you're not going to get a very accurate depiction of the "real weather" down the road.

?? Assuming this is directed at me....This system is already on land/entered the Pacific Northwest so there should be plenty of data. I'm frankly just pointing out observations made after analyzing modeled data/pointing out biases in certain models that have been documented on here, is that not welcomed on this forum ? Opinions ? Just want to clarify moving forward

It's not directed at you, specifically. No question that the models in play here all have biases. No question that the Euro, for example, has been the most inconsistent and seemingly clueless. Your comments about the models have not violated our rules IMO, so as far as I'm concerned they're as welcomed as any other comment. My point is that I just don't think anyone can dismiss any of the major models at this point. A lot of you guys think this whole deal is a slam dunk. I don't think so. It probably is a slam dunk that you Metroplexers are going to see a nasty wintry mix. But for the rest of us, there are a lot more questions.

I don't agree with you about the system in question which will be the upper level trough. In my opinion it is here (yellow circled area):

[url]https://i.ibb.co/2ydPJPd/Screenshot-2022-01-31-151216.png [/url]

You all have to admit this is one of the easier winter storms we have had to predict/look at. I say easier lightheartedly, given how tough it is to forecast winter weather around here, but it's been relatively steady besides a blip here and there. We're usually not blessed with this much consistency from 150-200hr range down to the wire! For the southern half of the state Porta you are right there is more questions than answers specifically temps.

[nathanc1969]

WSW's extended south of Wichita Falls to include Abilene and Brownwood.

Yeah San Angelo put out their counties. I know we have some posters out that way.

[/div]

Yep...looking pretty bad out here for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. And to be honest......after last February, most don't want it. Hopefully, we'll get a pretty blanket of snow that lasts about a day them melts away for a nice weekend.

[Portastorm]

You all have to admit this is one of the easier winter storms we have had to predict/look at. I say easier lightheartedly, given how tough it is to forecast winter weather around here, but it's been relatively steady besides a blip here and there. We're usually not blessed with this much consistency from 150-200hr range down to the wire! For the southern half of the state Porta you are right there is more questions than answers specifically temps.

(I deleted all the other stuff in this thread)

Agreed as it relates to your area. Yes! There's going to be a nasty winter storm in the Metroplex and the only questions at this point IMO are the amounts of freezing rain vs. sleet vs. snow.