Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

Here's a current weather map that goes all the way north into northern British Columbia and Alberta. No cold air there yet.

http://wxman57.com/images/wxmap.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/wxmap.JPG

WPC surface maps have 1042 HP along the Alaskan/Yukon border. Temps up there -30C to -40C underneath it. Not terribly cold (expanse wise) but as the HP strengthens on the way down more should build with it. Cold will spread out in all directions but resisted by the Southeast Ridge, except in Texas and lee of the Rockies where the slide is downhill. Air parcels for this even can be traced back to Siberia from cross polar flow.

[EnnisTx]

Back north in KS, they used both salt brine and salt pellets plus sand. That was much more effective than the "treatment" they do in Texas.

Texas pre treats with brine to lower the freezing point of the water/precipitation and then uses Magnesium Chloride to melt the ice that forms and it works well. They also use sand as conditions warrant. I was a part of this process for many years.

We have the right person on the forum to answer these questions.

Thanks to all that replied. Was just curious, we'll have no reason to venture out on the roads if it gets bad. We're fortunate to not have that need. Assuming schools are closed.

Once this starts everyone needs to be off the roads unless it's an emergency. Those crews that are out there are there for a reason and it's not to make sure that people can go for a drive. When it's that bad they do what they can to mitigate issues for first responders, fire, medical emergencies, police etc. also to help those people that didn't listen to the warnings. One thing I would add from personal experience is if the road conditions become so bad that the lanes are not passable, stay in the travel lanes with everyone else that becomes stuck in traffic and do not pull over onto or block the shoulder of the road as that's typically the only place for crews to access the area for treatment and get you and everyone else moving again. Again this is from personal experience during the 2013 cobblestone ice event that left myself and our crews trapped amongst the hundreds of vehicles on I 20 for 13 hours.. and that's not an exaggeration. Stay home, stay safe and stay warm.

[HockeyTx82]

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... lon=-97.18

There it is

[rwfromkansas]

Just got an alert for a WSW in Tarrant on my phone.

[Cerlin]

Watch is out for DFW and some parts south!

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
340 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>145-156-157-010700-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Ellis-
Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Lampasas-Coryell-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano,
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper,
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, Dublin,
Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson,
Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite,
Hamilton, Hico, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro,
Lampasas, Copperas Cove, and Gatesville
340 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed winter precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to
three tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Ice accumulations and
gusty winds on utility lines could cause power disruptions.
Cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if precautions are
not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation

[Quixotic]

ntwx was right. FWD going in early.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW going with that .30" may be on the light side but still enough to shut everything down, and that's before any change over to sleet/Snow.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has less QPF (I hope that's not the trend for me) & the cold is further south again.

EDIT: There's more & less, I don't know what to say.

[EnnisTx]

NWS FTW going with that .30" may be on the light side but still enough to shut everything down, and that's before any change over to sleet/Snow.

And depending on the wind, it's enough to cause numerous power outages from broken power lines and tree limbs.

[TropicalTundra]

Watch is out for DFW and some parts south!

Is there not going to be any frozen precip in Bell County? Lampasas County is under WSW yet Bell doesn't have any watch or warning. A sleet pellet at most?

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has less QPF (I hope that's not the trend for me) & the cold is further south again.

EDIT: There's more & less, I don't know what to say.

There's less Sleet & Snow, I hope that's not the start of a trend.

[orangeblood]

I don't know which model will be closest to right for later this week ... but I sure do see some authoritative comments in this thread on model depictions of an upper trough that hasn't even been sampled yet by U.S. upper air data stations. As 57 has pointed out, until that data is collected and the models include that data ... you're not going to get a very accurate depiction of the "real weather" down the road.

?? Assuming this is directed at me....This system is already on land/entered the Pacific Northwest so there should be plenty of data. I'm frankly just pointing out observations made after analyzing modeled data/pointing out biases in certain models that have been documented on here, is that not welcomed on this forum ? Opinions ? Just want to clarify moving forward

It's not directed at you, specifically. No question that the models in play here all have biases. No question that the Euro, for example, has been the most inconsistent and seemingly clueless. Your comments about the models have not violated our rules IMO, so as far as I'm concerned they're as welcomed as any other comment. My point is that I just don't think anyone can dismiss any of the major models at this point. A lot of you guys think this whole deal is a slam dunk. I don't think so. It probably is a slam dunk that you Metroplexers are going to see a nasty wintry mix. But for the rest of us, there are a lot more questions.

I don't agree with you about the location of the upper level system in question which will be the upper level trough that digs south. In my opinion it is here (yellow circled area):

[url]https://i.ibb.co/2ydPJPd/Screenshot-2022-01-31-151216.png [/url]

Thanks for clarifying/pointing out that and I completely agree, nothing is a slam dunk when it comes to Weather! Model watching is a hell of a roller coaster ride! Side note: love the opinions on here and actually wish people would chime in more with them - the banter helps with the learning process

[Brent]

18z GFS has less QPF (I hope that's not the trend for me) & the cold is further south again.

EDIT: There's more & less, I don't know what to say.

There's less Sleet & Snow, I hope that's not the start of a trend.

It's the 18z though I'm not really concerned about it

If the 0z models then maybe but until then

[HockeyTx82]

18z GFS has less QPF (I hope that's not the trend for me) & the cold is further south again.

EDIT: There's more & less, I don't know what to say.

There's less Sleet & Snow, I hope that's not the start of a trend.

It's the 18z though I'm not really concerned about it

If the 0z models then maybe but until then

Oh boy, here we go........

[CaptinCrunch]

Models will bounce around on amounts and types till they are locked in Wednesday.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Not to be an ass, but I hope Oklahoma lightens up a lot, because that means SETX is in business in this setup.

I won’t feel sorry for Okies missing out. You get plenty each Winter.

No hard feelings y’all.

[Iceresistance]

There's less Sleet & Snow, I hope that's not the start of a trend.

It's the 18z though I'm not really concerned about it

If the 0z models then maybe but until then

Oh boy, here we go........

It could be a bad run, but who knows.

News 9 has less Ice for me.

Less Ice = More Sleet & Snow

[Haris]

Yeah ICON was drier too.

[Portastorm]

Thanks for clarifying/pointing out that and I completely agree, nothing is a slam dunk when it comes to Weather! Model watching is a hell of a roller coaster ride! Side note: love the opinions on here and actually wish people would chime in more with them - the banter helps with the learning process

Absolutely! I couldn't agree more with ya. Healthy dialogue and debate is a good thing.

I hope you Metroplexers get a great winter event later this week without too much damage. Maybe snow will end up being predominant type of precip that falls! Y'all are long overdue.