Texas Winter 2021-2022

[HockeyTx82]

Alright. Now the real fun begins. The emotional highs and lows. The freak outs when you get 6” and the guy down the road got 7.

Today was a good day to step away, storm is coming but the hi-res output was still at the fringes of usability. Tomorrow is when the fun starts lol

Someone has to post it!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022020106/gfs_asnow_scus_17.png

However, as wxman57 posted above its a lot more complicated than just posting clown maps when it comes to forecasting winter wx. However, however, clown maps have been known to come true lol

Honk honk!!!

[wxman57]

Alright. Now the real fun begins. The emotional highs and lows. The freak outs when you get 6” and the guy down the road got 7.

Today was a good day to step away, storm is coming but the hi-res output was still at the fringes of usability. Tomorrow is when the fun starts lol

Someone has to post it!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022020106/gfs_asnow_scus_17.png

However, as wxman57 posted above its a lot more complicated than just posting clown maps when it comes to forecasting winter wx. However, however, clown maps have been known to come true lol

That map would be true if all the freezing rain and sleet fell as snow. Keep hoping...

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV is still very conservative which I guess is understandable given that only the western fringe of their area should see significant impacts. I expect to be placed into a watch after 12z runs are analyzed. With warnings coming out tonight, maybe SHV watis on warnings until tomorrow morning.

[cstrunk]

SHV is still very conservative which I guess is understandable given that only the western fringe of their area should see significant impacts. I expect to be placed into a watch after 12z runs are analyzed. With warnings coming out tonight, maybe SHV watis on warnings until tomorrow morning.

I would also expect Smith and Wood counties to be placed under a watch/warning at some point.

The 06z GFS images that wxman57 posted a bit ago have edged frozen precip even further SE for our area. The transition looks to happen closer to noon Thursday instead of later in the afternoon. That run gives Longview 0.19" freezing rain.

The SE trend continues...

[ROCK]

Didn’t see it mentioned earlier … Winter Storm Watch in effect here in the Austin area for Thursday. NWS says up to 1/4” ice accumulation possible. I I have seen 0.08” paralyze this town when it froze all the bridges and overpasses.

1/4 is huge and probably will shut down Austin, Dallas and FTW. I am frozen from 11pm tomorrow until 5pm Saturday with a low of 7 Thursday night. Might take a while to evap.

Rewrapping water well pipes today and brining in some fire wood. Just going to hunker down for next 3 days and hope I don’t lose power.

[Iceresistance]

I'm trying to help out at my school on when to be Virtual due to the weather conditions. Right now, it appears that Wednesday might be out.

[Iceresistance]

GEFS has 6 inches of snow mostly along I-44, & that's the 10:1 ratio snowfall.

[cheezyWXguy]

The FWD forecast discussion states they believe the metro will hit freezing around 9pm now, and that they believe the models showing a tapering of precip in the middle of the event are underdoing qpf. If they continue these thoughts, I think accumulation forecasts are going to increase for the area.

[gboudx]

Didn’t see it mentioned earlier … Winter Storm Watch in effect here in the Austin area for Thursday. NWS says up to 1/4” ice accumulation possible. I I have seen 0.08” paralyze this town when it froze all the bridges and overpasses.

1/4 is huge and probably will shut down Austin, Dallas and FTW. I am frozen from 11pm tomorrow until 5pm Saturday with a low of 7 Thursday night. Might take a while to evap.

Rewrapping water well pipes today and brining in some fire wood. Just going to hunker down for next 3 days and hope I don’t lose power.

Is your location still Kemah? Confused by the location and comment about being frozen from 11pm tomorrow.

[orangeblood]

The FWD forecast discussion states they believe the metro will hit freezing around 9pm now, and that they believe the models showing a tapering of precip in the middle of the event are underdoing qpf. If they continue these thoughts, I think accumulation forecasts are going to increase for the area.

Just look at the latest NBM comp ref forecast, just as Frz line begins moving through North Texas….

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV is still very conservative which I guess is understandable given that only the western fringe of their area should see significant impacts. I expect to be placed into a watch after 12z runs are analyzed. With warnings coming out tonight, maybe SHV watis on warnings until tomorrow morning.

I would also expect Smith and Wood counties to be placed under a watch/warning at some point.

The 06z GFS images that wxman57 posted a bit ago have edged frozen precip even further SE for our area. The transition looks to happen closer to noon Thursday instead of later in the afternoon. That run gives Longview 0.19" freezing rain.

The SE trend continues...

Yep Longview is on the edge but I'd lean towards at least advisory level ice for Gregg Co.

[bubba hotep]

At 48hr, 12z HRRR is colder than 06z 3k NAM but not as cold as 06z GFS.

At 14hr, 12z 3k NAM is moving cold air south faster with areas in the northern Panhandles (leading edge of freezing line) about 5F cooler than 00z.

[rwfromkansas]

I'm trying to help out at my school on when to be Virtual due to the weather conditions. Right now, it appears that Wednesday might be out.

Stinks you have to do virtual. Am glad here they declare bad weather days are just days off.

[Iceresistance]

I'm trying to help out at my school on when to be Virtual due to the weather conditions. Right now, it appears that Wednesday might be out.

Stinks you have to do virtual. Am glad here they declare bad weather days are just days off.

I do thrive on Virtual Learning, even though that I had 3 snow days during the 2020 October Ice Storm.

[Iceresistance]

Me & Brent got absolutely NAMed on the 12z run

[ROCK]

Didn’t see it mentioned earlier … Winter Storm Watch in effect here in the Austin area for Thursday. NWS says up to 1/4” ice accumulation possible. I I have seen 0.08” paralyze this town when it froze all the bridges and overpasses.

1/4 is huge and probably will shut down Austin, Dallas and FTW. I am frozen from 11pm tomorrow until 5pm Saturday with a low of 7 Thursday night. Might take a while to evap.

Rewrapping water well pipes today and brining in some fire wood. Just going to hunker down for next 3 days and hope I don’t lose power.

Is your location still Kemah? Confused by the location and comment about being frozen from 11pm tomorrow.

Nah I am up in Brownwood Central Texas as you can get. lol. Decided go country life lol…Didn’t realize it’s gets this cold up here.

[Brent]

Me & Brent got absolutely NAMed on the 12z run

Double digits showing up it's not impossible if we skip a lot of the sleet

[bubba hotep]

At 48hr, 12z HRRR is colder than 06z 3k NAM but not as cold as 06z GFS.

At 14hr, 12z 3k NAM is moving cold air south faster with areas in the northern Panhandles (leading edge of freezing line) about 5F cooler than 00z.

Freezing line is running about 1 row of counties faster than 06z. The 3K NAM is trending towards getting DFW (at least northern portions) below freezing before the onset of significant precipitation.

[Iceresistance]

I found this sounding on the 6z ICON, the Warm Nose is already gone, but the DGZ, jeez.

Also Heavy Snow at 15°F (-9.4°C), the Snowfall Ratio is much higher than 10:1, it's likely closer to 15:1 to 17:1


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/icon_06_048_85129909_skewt_weathernerds.png

[dhweather]

SHV is still very conservative which I guess is understandable given that only the western fringe of their area should see significant impacts. I expect to be placed into a watch after 12z runs are analyzed. With warnings coming out tonight, maybe SHV watis on warnings until tomorrow morning.

There's likely going to be a line of sadness somewhere along a line from San Antonio to Texarkana - at or above freezing. Sunday I thought that might happen along the I-35 corridor, maybe the 0Z moves it further east?