Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

Let's do a little bit of verification with the Euro. I took 12z run from Saturday and max high pressure up in northwest Canada the model depicted 1043mb forecast for this morning 12z. Analysis from WPC real time sits at 1050hp. This is roughly a 3 day forecast that shouldn't be that hard. That is a drastic difference. There is something wrong with it and these recent upgrades the past few years has made it struggle with Arctic blasts in these parts.

[TropicalTundra]

Love how the WRF-ARW's are polar opposite twins. WRF-ARW gives me probably a dusting, and WRF-ARW2 gives 6+ inches of snow or more for me and the Metroplex folks. Hi-Res models are still in disagreement on how fast the warm nose deteriorates. With heavy rain, freezing rain and sleet falling it won't take long for it to erode, which the models are still trying to see better.

[orangeblood]

Let's do a little bit of verification with the Euro. I took 12z run from Saturday and max high pressure up in northwest Canada the model depicted 1043mb forecast for this morning 12z. Analysis from WPC real time sits at 1050hp. This is roughly a 3 day forecast that shouldn't be that hard. That is a drastic difference. There is something wrong with it and these recent upgrades the past few years has made it struggle with Arctic blasts in these parts.

https://i.imgur.com/8LSH4MS.png

https://i.imgur.com/EKWU1LF.gif

Major flaws for Euro in winter months, GFS is king of Ops and has been since it’s upgrade….this forum has documented that quite well over the years

[Ralph's Weather]

I see that SHV pulled the trigger on a watch for their western their of counties. I could see them adding one more tier of counties or maybe just wait and tonight put them into an advisory when the decision is made on a warning vs advisory for far western areas, which includes Tyler.

[TheProfessor]

We need Lubbock to issue something to make the map look pretty

[Portastorm]

It's not publicly accessible but the Tech WRF model is followed by (at least) some NWS offices. I just checked out the latest run (6z) and the freezing line at the surface it shows for Thursday. Seems it's fairly aggressive as compared to the other models. By 5-6 am Thursday, the freezing line runs from near Texarkana down to San Antonio and west to Del Rio. Interesting.

[rwfromkansas]

Let's do a little bit of verification with the Euro. I took 12z run from Saturday and max high pressure up in northwest Canada the model depicted 1043mb forecast for this morning 12z. Analysis from WPC real time sits at 1050hp. This is roughly a 3 day forecast that shouldn't be that hard. That is a drastic difference. There is something wrong with it and these recent upgrades the past few years has made it struggle with Arctic blasts in these parts.

https://i.imgur.com/8LSH4MS.png

https://i.imgur.com/EKWU1LF.gif

Trying to learn how to read these maps better. The surface analysis seems to show the high further north than the model, which might be bad news, or is it really? It is more powerful as well. The low is slightly stronger in Canada north of MN, and the cold is definitely funneling down well up north.

[Ralph's Weather]

It's not publicly accessible but the Tech WRF model is followed by (at least) some NWS offices. I just checked out the latest run (6z) and the freezing line at the surface it shows for Thursday. Seems it's fairly aggressive as compared to the other models. By 5-6 am Thursday, the freezing line runs from near Texarkana down to San Antonio and west to Del Rio. Interesting.

WRF is very aggressive with freeze line in East Texas brining itin before midnight here. That would mean almost no liquid rain.

[rwfromkansas]

Love how the WRF-ARW's are polar opposite twins. WRF-ARW gives me probably a dusting, and WRF-ARW2 gives 6+ inches of snow or more for me and the Metroplex folks. Hi-Res models are still in disagreement on how fast the warm nose deteriorates. With heavy rain, freezing rain and sleet falling it won't take long for it to erode, which the models are still trying to see better.

What's funny is I just checked that model after hearing about it. Definitely a fan of its solution and faster timing. Crazy fast freezing line.

I do miss the free Tech WRF, so glad that was mentioned.

[Ntxw]

Let's do a little bit of verification with the Euro. I took 12z run from Saturday and max high pressure up in northwest Canada the model depicted 1043mb forecast for this morning 12z. Analysis from WPC real time sits at 1050hp. This is roughly a 3 day forecast that shouldn't be that hard. That is a drastic difference. There is something wrong with it and these recent upgrades the past few years has made it struggle with Arctic blasts in these parts.

https://i.imgur.com/8LSH4MS.png

https://i.imgur.com/EKWU1LF.gif

Trying to learn how to read these maps better. The surface analysis seems to show the high further north than the model, which might be bad news, or is it really? It is more powerful as well. The low is slightly stronger in Canada north of MN, and the cold is definitely funneling down well up north.

The HP is stronger than what that particular model was showing. The expanse of it is roughly the same just overall more powerful. The stronger the HP more likely it is to push cold, think of it as a bulldozer.

[Brent]

I don't know what to say on NWS-Tulsa. (I'm sure that Brent is going to be very surprised seeing this)

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SNOW24HRTHREAT20220202_1200.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SNOW24HRTHREAT20220202_1200.png

What the heck I just saw that an hour ago and it had 5-6

Lol its back to 5-6 now. Guess it was an "error"

I do see higher potential but I dunno about 15

[wxman57]

Not much change in the precip areas with the 12Z GFS. Looks like you "northerners" are going to get some winter weather. I don't know if this GFS run will verify, but I think it's safe to say that you'll be parking your cars Wednesday afternoon and not driving again until next week. Better get all your supplies now. I have a full bag of Chips Ahoy cookies and my electric blanket. That's all I'll need.

http://wxman57.com/images/TXRN3.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXZR3.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXIP3.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXSN3.png

[Ralph's Weather]

I don't know what to say on NWS-Tulsa. (I'm sure that Brent is going to be very surprised seeing this)

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SNOW24HRTHREAT20220202_1200.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SNOW24HRTHREAT20220202_1200.png

What the heck I just saw that an hour ago and it had 5-6

Lol its back to 5-6 now. Guess it was an "error"

I do see higher potential but I dunno about 15

Looks like someone hit submit on an internal graphic haha.

[Brent]

What the heck I just saw that an hour ago and it had 5-6

Lol its back to 5-6 now. Guess it was an "error"

I do see higher potential but I dunno about 15

Looks like someone hit submit on an internal graphic haha.

I guess

I mean even the clown maps haven't been that high..... Maybe 10-12

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

If you really want to know where the surface cold is start plotting the airports and WSO. Models will show you where the front is, but we know the artic air at the surface will be out ahead of the main front.

Once the surface hits freezing the frz rain will start accumulating on elevated surfaces, trees, power lines and so on.

I was just using Wundermap to do just this. There seems to be a wind shift line along an Amarillo-Wichita-Kansas City-Chicago line, but the sharpest temperature drop seems to be just moving into Nebraska-Iowa. Is that about right?

[txtwister78]

It's not publicly accessible but the Tech WRF model is followed by (at least) some NWS offices. I just checked out the latest run (6z) and the freezing line at the surface it shows for Thursday. Seems it's fairly aggressive as compared to the other models. By 5-6 am Thursday, the freezing line runs from near Texarkana down to San Antonio and west to Del Rio. Interesting.

The 12z ARW's also show this so something to watch with extended HRRR and RAP as well.

[Ntxw]

Jet entrance Baja. Pacific is open for business.

[Yukon Cornelius]

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Accumulating snow and ice expected. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible in northwest,
northern, central, and southwest Oklahoma, and western north
Texas. Ice accumulations of around one quarter of an inch or
more in portions of south central and southeast Oklahoma. Winds
gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northwestern, northern, central, and southern Oklahoma,
and portions of western north Texas

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The
cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in
hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

In Oklahoma, call 8 4 4 4 6 5 4 9 9 7 for road information. In
Texas, call 8 0 0 4 5 2 9 2 9 2 for road information.

&&

$$

[LearnedHat]

Not much change in the precip areas with the 12Z GFS. Looks like you "northerners" are going to get some winter weather. I don't know if this GFS run will verify, but I think it's safe to say that you'll be parking your cars Wednesday afternoon and not driving again until next week. Better get all your supplies now. I have a full bag of Chips Ahoy cookies and my electric blanket. That's all I'll need.

http://wxman57.com/images/TXRN3.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXZR3.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXIP3.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXSN3.png

Ouachitas look to get hammered - that is going to shut southern arkansas down like the opening day of duck season

[wxman57]

I always say, "look at the source region of the airmass". Well, looking at the source region I don't really see any bitterly-cold Arctic air. I see "normal" Canadian air. There's a cold front extending from northern Wisconsin southwest through Kansas City and Wichita to south of Lubbock, but the temperature drop behind it is not very significant. 41 in Amarillo and 29 in southern Nebraska? Only mid-teens in south Dakota. One below-zero temp in northwestern North Dakota and -10 to -15 in Alberta and Saskatchewan isn't extreme cold (well, for me it is). This is one of the reasons the ice storm will be so bad. The air won't be so cold that moisture will be limited. Plenty of moisture in sub-freezing air makes for a bad ice storm. Be careful up there.

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG