Texas Winter 2021-2022

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jaguars_22
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4461 Postby jaguars_22 » Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:50 am

I believe you guys up north will be iced in like WXMAN said. But I also believe that us down south are in for at least some freezing rain too after Thursday through Saturday. We could even see some sleet and snow possibly south of San Antonio.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4462 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:55 am

Winter storm watch here just got upgraded to a warning to take effect at 9pm tonight. Says 3-5 inches expected across the area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4463 Postby wxman22 » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:07 pm

For those along the coast, were not out of the woods yet, as models are starting to pick up on the Subtropical jet bringing more moisture overnight Thursday.I don't like how a aggressive the WRF models are either with the freezing line...

Image

Image

Image
Last edited by wxman22 on Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4464 Postby lukem » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:I always say, "look at the source region of the airmass". Well, looking at the source region I don't really see any bitterly-cold Arctic air. I see "normal" Canadian air. There's a cold front extending from northern Wisconsin southwest through Kansas City and Wichita to south of Lubbock, but the temperature drop behind it is not very significant. 41 in Amarillo and 29 in southern Nebraska? Only mid-teens in south Dakota. One below-zero temp in northwestern North Dakota and -10 to -15 in Alberta and Saskatchewan isn't extreme cold (well, for me it is). This is one of the reasons the ice storm will be so bad. The air won't be so cold that moisture will be limited. Plenty of moisture in sub-freezing air makes for a bad ice storm. Be careful up there.

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

Not saying you are wrong because you are a pro met and I am an amateur, but the GFS and NAM match the temps you quoted above for this time period. They don’t have the frigid arctic air entering North Dakota until tomorrow morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4465 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:10 pm

12z GEFS has 6-8 inches of snowfall for Central Oklahoma & 7-9 inches in Tulsa, & that's only the 10:1 Ratio snowfall
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4466 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:13 pm

Might be in the long range, but Mid-February might rival February 2021 with a HUGE Storm! Major Sleet Storm along & South of I-20 all the way to Southern Texas, north of I-20 is a major snowstorm up to I-40.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4467 Postby jaguars_22 » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:14 pm

Wxman22 that upper low that hangs back on some models could bring more precip to south texas as well. Everything is up in the air at this point until it happens.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4468 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:19 pm

Winter Storm Warning here 4-6 locally up to 8 along and north of 44
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4469 Postby Quixotic » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:20 pm

It doesn't have to be crosspolar cold. The cold I'm seeing is more than enough.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4470 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:21 pm

I could obviously end up wrong, but I think there's going to be several areas here in OK that end up with several inches more than the 3-5 range. Just seems like all the models are showing more than that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4471 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:26 pm

lukem wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I always say, "look at the source region of the airmass". Well, looking at the source region I don't really see any bitterly-cold Arctic air. I see "normal" Canadian air. There's a cold front extending from northern Wisconsin southwest through Kansas City and Wichita to south of Lubbock, but the temperature drop behind it is not very significant. 41 in Amarillo and 29 in southern Nebraska? Only mid-teens in south Dakota. One below-zero temp in northwestern North Dakota and -10 to -15 in Alberta and Saskatchewan isn't extreme cold (well, for me it is). This is one of the reasons the ice storm will be so bad. The air won't be so cold that moisture will be limited. Plenty of moisture in sub-freezing air makes for a bad ice storm. Be careful up there.

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

Not saying you are wrong because you are a pro met and I am an amateur, but the GFS and NAM match the temps you quoted above for this time period. They don’t have the frigid arctic air entering North Dakota until tomorrow morning.


I'm just making an observation of the current temperatures. Of course, the temperature discontinuity along the front will tighten up over the next 24 hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4472 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:29 pm

wxman22 wrote:For those along the coast, were not out of the woods yet, as models are starting to pick up on the Subtropical jet bringing more moisture overnight Thursday.I don't like how a aggressive the WRF models are either with the freezing line...

https://i.ibb.co/SQrHB6B/gem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-11.png

https://i.ibb.co/qM8H9hF/gem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-12.png

https://i.ibb.co/H2G8f72/icon-2022-02-01-12-Z-072-32-389-261-133-27-333-268-333-Rain-Snow-Radar-highways.png


The ICON is one of the colder models, similar to the Canadian. Can't absolutely rule it out, but I think it's too cold with our temps. Time to plot all the 12Z model forecasts for Houston temps...
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4473 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:33 pm

12Z GFS keeping North Texas below freezing for over 100 hrs starting Wednesday night....as wxman57 has mentioned, plan to be stuck wherever you end up until Monday particularly where frz rn/sleet occurs

Image

Showing over 1/2" ice, 1" sleet and 3" snow for DFW. If that comes anywhere close to verifying, the metroplex is basically shut down for several days

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4474 Postby dhweather » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:38 pm

From the 12Z GFS - Looks like we're in for a period of 4-5 days below freezing.

As wxman57 noted, be prepared to be stuck at home for a few days, and be prepared for power outages.

Image
Last edited by dhweather on Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4475 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:40 pm

Looking at 850mb obs this morning. The 'colder' GFS was a little too slow a few days ago with it compared to real time. This is air above. I think that warm nose modeled is going to shrink/erode quickly.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4476 Postby Tammie » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:44 pm

Ntxw wrote:Looking at 850mb obs this morning. The 'colder' GFS was a little too slow a few days ago with it compared to real time. This is air above. I think that warm nose modeled is going to shrink/erode quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/VtOe2qY.png

https://i.imgur.com/bzH07qh.png


Which will mean higher precipitation totals if that happens?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4477 Postby Quixotic » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:45 pm

Initial front is making it's way through Panhandle now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4478 Postby dhweather » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:46 pm

12Z GFS Meteogram for the big airport


Image
Last edited by dhweather on Tue Feb 01, 2022 1:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4479 Postby Quixotic » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:47 pm

Starting with my first freezing line observation in Northwestern Kansas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4480 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:I always say, "look at the source region of the airmass". Well, looking at the source region I don't really see any bitterly-cold Arctic air. I see "normal" Canadian air. There's a cold front extending from northern Wisconsin southwest through Kansas City and Wichita to south of Lubbock, but the temperature drop behind it is not very significant. 41 in Amarillo and 29 in southern Nebraska? Only mid-teens in south Dakota. One below-zero temp in northwestern North Dakota and -10 to -15 in Alberta and Saskatchewan isn't extreme cold (well, for me it is). This is one of the reasons the ice storm will be so bad. The air won't be so cold that moisture will be limited. Plenty of moisture in sub-freezing air makes for a bad ice storm. Be careful up there.

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG



Reminds me of a classic Nino ice storm.
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