SIO : BATSIRAI - Post-Tropical
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
I haven't checked in on the tropics that much recently so I'm not 100% sure what's going on rn but did the JTWC kept being really late or something?? Because I feel like some of the estimates make sense but at the wrong time. Like, the 100kt should be around the RI phase. Unless they changed it because I haven't checked the best track.
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- mrbagyo
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
Batsirai seems to be intensifying again. I'd say a new peak will be attained within the next 24 hrs.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE BATSIRAI
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 130 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 185 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 973 hPa.
Position on January 31 at 4 p.m. local Reunion: 16.2 South / 63.0 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 940 km to the EAST-NORTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 1960 km to the EAST-SOUTH-EAST sector
Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.
- BATSIRAI is currently transiting North-North-West of Rodrigues Island with an influence
marginal. The peripheral bands of the system, on the other hand, begin to approach the island of
Saint Brandon.
- BATSIRAI has therefore begun a west-southwest turn, bringing it closer to Mauritius and La
Reunion, remaining a very dangerous system (potentially at the stage of Tropical Cyclone
Intense). It should circulate in the North/North-West of Mauritius on Wednesday morning then in
North/North-West of Reunion Wednesday evening and the following night at a distance which remains to be specified:
change to 200-250 km more or less 100-150 km given the uncertainty about the position of the
system at these times.
- The extent of the deterioration in conditions, which should start on Tuesday for Mauritius and Tuesday evening
for Reunion, will depend on the final trajectory. If the current scenario continues, conditions
extremes at the heart of the system should not directly concern the sister islands. The
inhabitants of Mauritius and Reunion are however invited to keep abreast of the evolution of the
situation.
- At the end of the week, BATSIRAI should approach the eastern coasts of Madagascar,
potentially still at a dangerous stage, but the area of possible impact and the timeline of
his arrival are still very uncertain.
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 130 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 185 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 973 hPa.
Position on January 31 at 4 p.m. local Reunion: 16.2 South / 63.0 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 940 km to the EAST-NORTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 1960 km to the EAST-SOUTH-EAST sector
Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.
- BATSIRAI is currently transiting North-North-West of Rodrigues Island with an influence
marginal. The peripheral bands of the system, on the other hand, begin to approach the island of
Saint Brandon.
- BATSIRAI has therefore begun a west-southwest turn, bringing it closer to Mauritius and La
Reunion, remaining a very dangerous system (potentially at the stage of Tropical Cyclone
Intense). It should circulate in the North/North-West of Mauritius on Wednesday morning then in
North/North-West of Reunion Wednesday evening and the following night at a distance which remains to be specified:
change to 200-250 km more or less 100-150 km given the uncertainty about the position of the
system at these times.
- The extent of the deterioration in conditions, which should start on Tuesday for Mauritius and Tuesday evening
for Reunion, will depend on the final trajectory. If the current scenario continues, conditions
extremes at the heart of the system should not directly concern the sister islands. The
inhabitants of Mauritius and Reunion are however invited to keep abreast of the evolution of the
situation.
- At the end of the week, BATSIRAI should approach the eastern coasts of Madagascar,
potentially still at a dangerous stage, but the area of possible impact and the timeline of
his arrival are still very uncertain.
http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activ ... e/BATSIRAI
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
latest good MW pass
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
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- cycloneye
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
Eyewall is now within Mauritius radar range
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
TPXS11 PGTW 011756
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI)
B. 01/1730Z
C. 17.58S
D. 59.40E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDED IN CMG YIELDS A
DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ABRAHAM
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI)
B. 01/1730Z
C. 17.58S
D. 59.40E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDED IN CMG YIELDS A
DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ABRAHAM
What?
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
Yellow Evan wrote:TPXS11 PGTW 011756
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI)
B. 01/1730Z
C. 17.58S
D. 59.40E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDED IN CMG YIELDS A
DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ABRAHAM
What?
At least it’s not as bad as a 100kt sheared storm with no eye and a partially exposed LLC, but the bar is pretty low for this storm.
Speaking of eyes, Batsirai’s is still trying to clear out. It has a decent shot at Cat 4 intensity if it clears.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
At the time, this was pretty good, maybe could go with 5.5 but 5.0 is in the range at that time. What you would have called it? I will say that as of 21Z it's at least a 6.0, maybe more.
Yellow Evan wrote:TPXS11 PGTW 011756
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI)
B. 01/1730Z
C. 17.58S
D. 59.40E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDED IN CMG YIELDS A
DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ABRAHAM
What?
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
The eye is quickly clearing now. Unless the JTWC makes an even worse call than anything else they’ve done with this storm, Batsirai will be a major at 00z.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
The cyclone is currently passing near/just south of St. Brandon, a largely uninhabited island belonging to Mauritius.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
120 kt.
08S BATSIRAI 220202 0000 18.1S 58.3E SHEM 120 940
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
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