Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

One beef I need to take is even at the NWS and some in public 'this is not as bad as 2021'. We need to stop downplaying this and comparing it to 2021. For about 2-3 days it's going look and feel just as bad. Roads will be even worse.

[bubba hotep]

I'm all in! Seriously, what this does show is a large are of North Texas getting 1"+ of qpf with temps below freezing. Looking across the afternoon data, the "best" crossover of subfreezing temps and qpf will probably be from the northern burbs and off to the NE.

[EnnisTx]

I would like to thank Mother Nature for providing me a new Travel Trailer and generator to stay in if the power actually goes out due to downed power lines or whatever. Was planning on buying one for our new property out in Albany Texas, but talked the old ball and chain into it a little earlier than planned.

[bubba hotep]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

One beef I need to take is even at the NWS and some in public 'this is not as bad as 2021'. We need to stop downplaying this and comparing it to 2021. For about 2-3 days it's going look and feel just as bad. Roads will be even worse.

Yea, the societal impact occurred with the issuing of the Watch. The Milk and Bread is already gone but if know where to look you can still get whiskey and beer

[rwfromkansas]

ERCOT is still crickets on social media about their preparations. Last post was Jan. 18.

As for the FWD graphic, that is great. I have been really concerned seeing so many DFW mets saying "this won't be last year" almost downplaying it. Just because we won't be below zero and in single digits for days does not mean it's not a significant event. It will still get very cold so anything will freeze well. This isn't our usual bordering 32-degree event where everything that falls melts. The roads will be incredibly dangerous, and any ice that does fall will go on trees and powerlines.

This graphic does a great job of explaining this without saying "this isn't 2021, don't worry" like some people.

Maybe they are so busy that the social media person got pulled to utility repairs and is not posting.....

Fair point. I was just making the point about communication really helping ease any fears of the public, not saying this year will be a repeat of last year. I am sure we will not have widespread issues aside from tree branches hitting lines etc.

[Quixotic]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

I'm with you one hundo. It's about as no brainer as it gets, especially because it looks like the freezing line is arriving earlier than expected. My point forecast is pretty much brief freezing rain, then sleet, then all snow by 9 am Thursday. QPF? 1.4". Yeah, it could be sleet. Could be Snow. Could be freezing rain but looking at it all together, I don't see how we don't exceed criteria because if I assume 0.5" of freezing rain, 1.5" of sleet and 2-3" of snow, I'm in the 5" category of total accumulation.

[gpsnowman]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

One beef I need to take is even at the NWS and some in public 'this is not as bad as 2021'. We need to stop downplaying this and comparing it to 2021. For about 2-3 days it's going look and feel just as bad. Roads will be even worse.

Yea, the societal impact occurred with the issuing of the Watch. The Milk and Bread is already gone but if know where to look you can still get whiskey and beer

Bubba, can I get an Amen!!! Headed to Total Wine just a few minutes!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

One beef I need to take is even at the NWS and some in public 'this is not as bad as 2021'. We need to stop downplaying this and comparing it to 2021. For about 2-3 days it's going look and feel just as bad. Roads will be even worse.

I have been emphasizing this in my posts on other platforms. It's different but impact wise could be similar.
Roads will be impassable in some areas for 4 or 5 days. The impact on the power grid will be far worse with some losing power for a week or more due to downed lines and poles. And though not quite as long lasting the cold will be close to as cold.

[Iceresistance]

My school is Fully closed Tomorrow, I did not expect that! But then again, there is a higher risk of Power Outages due to Ice

[Ntxw]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

One beef I need to take is even at the NWS and some in public 'this is not as bad as 2021'. We need to stop downplaying this and comparing it to 2021. For about 2-3 days it's going look and feel just as bad. Roads will be even worse.

I have been emphasizing this in my posts on other platforms. It's different but impact wise could be similar.
Roads will be impassable in some areas for 4 or 5 days. The impact on the power grid will be far worse with some losing power for a week or more due to downed lines and poles. And though not quite as long lasting the cold will be close to as cold.

Yeah it's all about IMBY . Sure it may not be as bad for the state as a whole but for someone who lives on 1 main street in Rockwall (made that up) it could be just as bad for a few days!

[Brent]

Pete Delkus has apparently started cancelling school on social media it's real now he still cracks me up and I don't even live in Dallas anymore

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Norman has typoed 'Dangerous WInd Chills' on their thing.

[cheezyWXguy]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

Agreed, they clearly played this package cautiously, which explains why they followed the NAM which I believe is the slowest of all models at progressing the freezing line. Assuming no major changes in the 0z suite, I am betting we will see a more aggressive forecast overnight

[LearnedHat]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

I'm with you one hundo. It's about as no brainer as it gets, especially because it looks like the freezing line is arriving earlier than expected. My point forecast is pretty much brief freezing rain, then sleet, then all snow by 9 am Thursday. QPF? 1.4". Yeah, it could be sleet. Could be Snow. Could be freezing rain but looking at it all together, I don't see how we don't exceed criteria because if I assume 0.5" of freezing rain, 1.5" of sleet and 2-3" of snow, I'm in the 5" category of total accumulation.

1/2 inch of freezing rain is bad news for trees and related power issues - roads too but sleet and snow on too will give some traction. Hoping it’s 1/4 or less of freezing rain.

[LearnedHat]

Pete Delkus has apparently started cancelling school on social media it's real now he still cracks me up and I don't even live in Dallas anymore

It isnt official until you hear from Michael Irvin on the matter.

[gpsnowman]

Dallas and Garland ISD's cancelled Thursday and Friday. Here they come.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Pete Delkus has apparently started cancelling school on social media it's real now he still cracks me up and I don't even live in Dallas anymore

Doesn't count until Michael Irvin announces the closure.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Pete Delkus has apparently started cancelling school on social media it's real now he still cracks me up and I don't even live in Dallas anymore

It isnt official until you hear from Michael Irvin on the matter.

Beat me to it. This topic is CLOSED!!!!

[Quixotic]

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

I'm with you one hundo. It's about as no brainer as it gets, especially because it looks like the freezing line is arriving earlier than expected. My point forecast is pretty much brief freezing rain, then sleet, then all snow by 9 am Thursday. QPF? 1.4". Yeah, it could be sleet. Could be Snow. Could be freezing rain but looking at it all together, I don't see how we don't exceed criteria because if I assume 0.5" of freezing rain, 1.5" of sleet and 2-3" of snow, I'm in the 5" category of total accumulation.

1/2 inch of freezing rain is bad news for trees and related power issues - roads too but sleet and snow on too will give some traction. Hoping it’s 1/4 or less of freezing rain.

Yeah, of the three types, freezing rain is the most unmanageable. Meant to take my car in for service this week before smashup derby starts tomorrow night.

I was around for the epic 1978 NYE ice storm. Holy moly. Couldn't even go outside because there were snarls of sparking powerlines everywhere. 6 days with no power and everybody getting on each other's nerves.

[Ntxw]

RAP snowfall (this does not include sleet/freezing rain) and is after the changeover. Something I've been seeing across models is during the changeover there is a strong band of qpf from SW to NE, it kicks up snowfall totals where the transition is (likely enhanced by the heavy qpf) so something to watch.