Texas Winter 2021-2022

[txtwister78]

It's all semantics at this point. North and Central Texas are at the crosshairs of highest qpf and below freezing temps (especially NTX) so issue it now or issue it later doesn't make much of a difference. Plenty of maps seen.

One beef I need to take is even at the NWS and some in public 'this is not as bad as 2021'. We need to stop downplaying this and comparing it to 2021. For about 2-3 days it's going look and feel just as bad. Roads will be even worse.

In my opinion they've done a good job of ramping this up without going full apocalypse which this event is not I believe (even in DFW). I honestly think a lot of the "not as bad as 2021" commentary is coming from social media responses. So, messaging wise I think they're doing enough. Again, just my .02. That's not saying folks shouldn't be prepared for a significant event Thursday in DFW but creating "panic" and flooding stores probably not helpful either especially when you have strain from ongoing distribution issues as it is (but that's another subject for a different forum).

Agree though about semantics. Probably waiting to decide between ice storm warning or winter storm warning.

I agree with most of your points. I just can't tell you how many times I've seen and heard this, and NWS FW had the comparison too albeit they did note the effects. A lot of the general public is very simple minded. You say not as bad as 2021 and they think back when they could drive around because many were successful in the snow after their power went out. The roads may become nearly impassible in this situation where sleet is plentiful. This may not compare to 2021 but likely as bad as any event since 2000, potentially, up here. This is the kind of storm you see trucks and cars stuck and backed up for miles in the sleet and ice.

Oh yeah, we've had them down here too (ice storm in 2007 for example) and we got 500 accidents in a span of three hours, but I think with 2021 being so fresh in everyone's mind, I do think they have a responsibility to at least stress that even if the storm upcoming is significant in its own right, it's not on that level. Ice is ice and so you're always going to have foolish behavior from the public no matter how many times you stress "stay off the roads", but again take 2021 out of the equation (particularly the recent experience) and this is a significant event on its own for sure. Just don't think they should be called out for acknowledging the "differences" is all.

Edit last thing.... I think the people focusing on the "it's not going to be worse than 2021" sentence are on the other hand ignoring the other things they are in fact saying. It's not downplaying it in my opinion just because you acknowledge that.

[cheezyWXguy]

RAP snowfall (this does not include sleet/freezing rain) and is after the changeover. Something I've been seeing across models is during the changeover there is a strong band of qpf from SW to NE, it kicks up snowfall totals where the transition is (likely enhanced by the heavy qpf) so something to watch.

https://i.imgur.com/SPqzM2L.png

Dang, 5+ inches of snow in addition to the ice and sleet? One of the more aggressive models I’ve seen

[Ntxw]

RAP snowfall (this does not include sleet/freezing rain) and is after the changeover. Something I've been seeing across models is during the changeover there is a strong band of qpf from SW to NE, it kicks up snowfall totals where the transition is (likely enhanced by the heavy qpf) so something to watch.

https://i.imgur.com/SPqzM2L.png

Dang, 5+ inches of snow in addition to the ice and sleet? One of the more aggressive models I’ve seen

Even the GFS/Euro is 1-3" (assuming 10:1 ratio, but it will be plenty cold). If the transition occurs sooner during that heavy qpf period in the morning I don't see why it's not a plausible scenario. Mesoscale banding features will play a role.

[cheezyWXguy]

RAP snowfall (this does not include sleet/freezing rain) and is after the changeover. Something I've been seeing across models is during the changeover there is a strong band of qpf from SW to NE, it kicks up snowfall totals where the transition is (likely enhanced by the heavy qpf) so something to watch.

https://i.imgur.com/SPqzM2L.png

Dang, 5+ inches of snow in addition to the ice and sleet? One of the more aggressive models I’ve seen

Even the GFS/Euro is 1-3" (assuming 10:1 ratio, but it will be plenty cold). If the transition occurs sooner during that heavy qpf period in the morning I don't see why it's not a plausible scenario. Mesoscale banding features will play a role.

Sign me up

[Ntxw]

While we're on the subject just fyi last year at DFW the grand total qpf from the 3-4 day event was 0.37" of qpf. This system will be 2-3x more than that. Temps were the player last year, the storm precipitation now is going to be the bigger the player.

[txtwister78]

While we're on the subject just fyi last year at DFW the grand total qpf from the 3-4 day event was 0.37" of qpf. This system will be 2-3x more than that. Temps were the player last year, the storm precipitation now is going to be the bigger the player.

Not to beat a dead horse here, but what else could they say at this point that they're not. It just seems to me that folks are too ramped up over one sentence. I mean it's not as if this is the state's first significant ice storm right? We do tend to get those down here from time to time and so again respectfully I'm just trying to see where the "downplaying" narrative is coming from? I could see your point if this was a repeated narrative by them in future winter storms/events, but I just think being that this is the first real major winter event post Feb 2021, I really don't see the harm in acknowledging the "differences". They're definitely not saying "hey everyone no big deal" are they Lol?

[Ntxw]

While we're on the subject just fyi last year at DFW the grand total qpf from the 3-4 day event was 0.37" of qpf. This system will be 2-3x more than that. Temps were the player last year, the storm precipitation now is going to be the bigger the player.

Not to beat a dead horse here, but what else could they say at this point that they're not. It just seems to me that folks are too ramped up over one sentence. I mean it's not as if this is the state's first significant ice storm right? We do tend to get those down here from time to time and so again respectfully I'm just trying to see where the "downplaying" narrative is coming from? I could see your point if this was a repeated narrative by them in future winter storms/events, but I just think being that this is the first real major winter event post Feb 2021, I really don't see the harm in acknowledging the "differences". They're definitely not saying "hey everyone no big deal" are they Lol?

We don't need to hash this out anymore. It is what is, I have disagreements with it and lets get back on topic.

[orangeblood]

While we're on the subject just fyi last year at DFW the grand total qpf from the 3-4 day event was 0.37" of qpf. This system will be 2-3x more than that. Temps were the player last year, the storm precipitation now is going to be the bigger the player.

Has all the makings to big more impactful than last year, particularly for North Texas….hope communities are prepared

[txtwister78]

While we're on the subject just fyi last year at DFW the grand total qpf from the 3-4 day event was 0.37" of qpf. This system will be 2-3x more than that. Temps were the player last year, the storm precipitation now is going to be the bigger the player.

Not to beat a dead horse here, but what else could they say at this point that they're not. It just seems to me that folks are too ramped up over one sentence. I mean it's not as if this is the state's first significant ice storm right? We do tend to get those down here from time to time and so again respectfully I'm just trying to see where the "downplaying" narrative is coming from? I could see your point if this was a repeated narrative by them in future winter storms/events, but I just think being that this is the first real major winter event post Feb 2021, I really don't see the harm in acknowledging the "differences". They're definitely not saying "hey everyone no big deal" are they Lol?

We don't need to hash this out anymore. It is what is, I have disagreements with it and lets get back on topic.

Got it. Lol

[Golf7270]

I just got put under a winter storm warning starting 6pm tomorrow running through midnight Friday. Ice and sleet are our main concerns. Also, to briefly change the subject from this winter storm the next few days. Moving forward I believe we keep the cold pattern through at least mid February, maybe longer. The 12z eps was cold but does anyone have an update on 12z gefs from today? Just curious if it matched the eps.

[Ntxw]

I just got put under a winter storm warning starting 6pm tomorrow running through midnight Friday. Ice and sleet are our main concerns. Also, to briefly change the subject from this winter storm the next few days. Moving forward I believe we keep the cold pattern through at least mid February, maybe longer. The 12z eps was cold but does anyone have an update on 12z gefs from today? Just curious if it matched the eps.

12z GEFS keeps the similar pattern we are currently in using weathermodels. Trough does shift east some but then retros back. The high pressure over the Northeast Pacific looks fairly stable, one could argue pretty strong consensus for that range way out there.

[Iceresistance]

State of Emergency Declared for Oklahoma

[EnnisTx]

State of Emergency Declared for Oklahoma

Did Someone just realize Lincoln Riley left OU?

[Iceresistance]

State of Emergency Declared for Oklahoma

Someone just realize Lincoln Riley left OU?

No, it's for the Storm

[txtwister78]

State of Emergency Declared for Oklahoma

Someone just realize Lincoln Riley left OU?

Lol! Now that's funny.

[Cpv17]

I just got put under a winter storm warning starting 6pm tomorrow running through midnight Friday. Ice and sleet are our main concerns. Also, to briefly change the subject from this winter storm the next few days. Moving forward I believe we keep the cold pattern through at least mid February, maybe longer. The 12z eps was cold but does anyone have an update on 12z gefs from today? Just curious if it matched the eps.

12z GEFS keeps the similar pattern we are currently in using weathermodels. Trough does shift east some but then retros back. The high pressure over the Northeast Pacific looks fairly stable, one could argue pretty strong consensus for that range way out there.

Sometime over the next few days, I’m expecting some pretty crazy runs of the GFS for the mid February timeframe.

[dhweather]

Seems like people are kinda excited

[EnnisTx]

State of Emergency Declared for Oklahoma

Someone just realize Lincoln Riley left OU?

No, it's for the Storm

I know, was giving you a hard time.

[SouthernMet]

While we're on the subject just fyi last year at DFW the grand total qpf from the 3-4 day event was 0.37" of qpf. This system will be 2-3x more than that. Temps were the player last year, the storm precipitation now is going to be the bigger the player.

Has all the makings to big more impactful than last year, particularly for North Texas….hope communities are prepared

100% agree. The “this won’t be as bad as last year” messaging is dangerous and irresponsible at this point.

[Ntxw]

I just got put under a winter storm warning starting 6pm tomorrow running through midnight Friday. Ice and sleet are our main concerns. Also, to briefly change the subject from this winter storm the next few days. Moving forward I believe we keep the cold pattern through at least mid February, maybe longer. The 12z eps was cold but does anyone have an update on 12z gefs from today? Just curious if it matched the eps.

12z GEFS keeps the similar pattern we are currently in using weathermodels. Trough does shift east some but then retros back. The high pressure over the Northeast Pacific looks fairly stable, one could argue pretty strong consensus for that range way out there.

Sometime over the next few days, I’m expecting some pretty crazy runs of the GFS for the mid February timeframe.

I hope so! Not gonna lie, been looking to see if we can get some more snow out of this system and give the metroplexers satisfaction to the insatiable need. Then we can look for something to get the southern half of the state an event and get on spring . There's about a 3 week window still to take advantage of the ridge near Alaska.