Texas Winter 2021-2022

[harp]

I just got put under a winter storm warning starting 6pm tomorrow running through midnight Friday. Ice and sleet are our main concerns. Also, to briefly change the subject from this winter storm the next few days. Moving forward I believe we keep the cold pattern through at least mid February, maybe longer. The 12z eps was cold but does anyone have an update on 12z gefs from today? Just curious if it matched the eps.

12z GEFS keeps the similar pattern we are currently in using weathermodels. Trough does shift east some but then retros back. The high pressure over the Northeast Pacific looks fairly stable, one could argue pretty strong consensus for that range way out there.

Sometime over the next few days, I’m expecting some pretty crazy runs of the GFS for the mid February timeframe.

The 12Z run this morning was nuts late in the run! Of course, it’s gone on the 18Z.

[rwfromkansas]

Latest FWD timeline shows snow possible roughly 9 to 6 Thursday. Earlier graphic had a limited window for some tail-end snow. Now it’s much longer

[Bhow]

RAP with its most aggressive run for Austin yet. Unfortunately still looks like ice

[Cpv17]

12z GEFS keeps the similar pattern we are currently in using weathermodels. Trough does shift east some but then retros back. The high pressure over the Northeast Pacific looks fairly stable, one could argue pretty strong consensus for that range way out there.

Sometime over the next few days, I’m expecting some pretty crazy runs of the GFS for the mid February timeframe.

The 12Z run this morning was nuts late in the run! Of course, it’s gone on the 18Z.

With it being that far out, you’re going to see some significant changes from run to run on the operationals. Best to look at the GEFS and see if it keeps the same signal. When you start seeing that same signal consistently for around the same timeframe then that definitely should raise some eyebrows.

[harp]

Sometime over the next few days, I’m expecting some pretty crazy runs of the GFS for the mid February timeframe.

The 12Z run this morning was nuts late in the run! Of course, it’s gone on the 18Z.

With it being that far out, you’re going to see some significant changes from run to run on the operationals. Best to look at the GEFS and see if it keeps the same signal. When you start seeing that same signal consistently for around the same timeframe then that definitely should raise some eyebrows.

Is that what is currently showing?

[Ntxw]

18z euro has that same rap band over the same regions 2-4" and did go up from 12z.

[wxman57]

Expect the NWS FTW to issue Winter Storm Warning at the 9pm update.

Front is on top of Wichita Falls currently expected into the DFW area by 6am-8am in the morning. Still think the transition will come earlier than forecast like around 6pm tomorrow.

The leading edge of the front is modifying fast around Wichita Falls to the TX Panhandle. Will get a reinforcing shot of cold air overnight to start moving the front. Secondary surge of cold air is over southern Kansas.

[Iceresistance]

I'm getting ENE Winds, I believe the cold front has arrived.

[EnnisTx]

Looks like it's into the Falls.

Current conditions at
Wichita Falls, Sheppard Air Force Base (KSPS)
Lat: 33.98°NLon: 98.49°WElev: 1014ft.

Fair

58°F

14°C

Humidity 28%
Wind Speed NW 8 mph
Barometer 29.76 in (1007.3 mb)
Dewpoint 25°F (-4°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 1 Feb 6:52 pm CST

[orangeblood]

Sometime over the next few days, I’m expecting some pretty crazy runs of the GFS for the mid February timeframe.

The 12Z run this morning was nuts late in the run! Of course, it’s gone on the 18Z.

With it being that far out, you’re going to see some significant changes from run to run on the operationals. Best to look at the GEFS and see if it keeps the same signal. When you start seeing that same signal consistently for around the same timeframe then that definitely should raise some eyebrows.

Latest GEFS now showing what Op has been hinting at for mid month….PV appearance into Minnesota ???

[Iceresistance]

0z HRRR has 9-12 inches of snow from SW Oklahoma to Missouri, especially along I-44

[gpsnowman]

Huge question on my mind currently. Where will JIm Cantore be on Thursday?

[rwfromkansas]

Briefly saw a video from where Prof is in Kansas. They haven’t seen a 8-inch snow since February 2014. Lots of places have needed a big snow and will get it. Happy to see DFW will probably see more snow than thought originally, even if just 1-2 inches.

[Ntxw]

Hrrr gives DFW that big snow band too. Freezing rain down I-35 to Austin and SA.

[Bhow]

Hrrr gives DFW that big snow band too. Freezing rain down I-35 to Austin and SA.

We’ll trade you

[cheezyWXguy]

Hrrr gives DFW that big snow band too. Freezing rain down I-35 to Austin and SA.

Just saw that, an island of 3-4” centered right on the metro, and the sleet isn’t even factored into that total. Good trends!

[Ntxw]

Hrrr gives DFW that big snow band too. Freezing rain down I-35 to Austin and SA.

Just saw that, an island of 3-4” centered right on the metro, and the sleet isn’t even factored into that total. Good trends!

May be looking into it too much, but HRRR does the changeover pretty quick via bursts, might be some dynamics going on to cool the warm layer.

[EnnisTx]

Hrrr gives DFW that big snow band too. Freezing rain down I-35 to Austin and SA.

Just saw that, an island of 3-4” centered right on the metro, and the sleet isn’t even factored into that total. Good trends!

May be looking into it too much, but HRRR does the changeover pretty quick via bursts, might be some dynamics going on to cool the warm layer.

Maybe a little thunder to go along with it.

[JDawg512]

I'm not looking forward to getting ice.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Oy Vey…January of 2018 coming to the 210