Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Texas Snow]

The NAM does not want to move that freezing line into Dallas County. It doesn’t get to Love Field until 6am.

[Ntxw]

The NAM does not want to move that freezing line into Dallas County. It doesn’t get to Love Field until 6am.

It has been consistently wanting to slow the cold for sure, despite speeding up here and there from prior runs.

[Iceresistance]

The NAM does not want to move that freezing line into Dallas County. It doesn’t get to Love Field until 6am.

It has been consistently wanting to slow the cold for sure, despite speeding up here and there.

Also one of the driest of all the Mesoscale models, does not like the snow very much compared to the Operationals & Ensembles.

[bigddstranny]

Where are the Austin folks? Is Portastorm still around?

I'm thinking we end up with an ice storm. Thoughts?

[Ntxw]

The NAM does not want to move that freezing line into Dallas County. It doesn’t get to Love Field until 6am.

It has been consistently wanting to slow the cold for sure, despite speeding up here and there.

Also one of the driest of all the Mesoscale models, does not like the snow very much compared to the Operationals & Ensembles.

3km Nam is looking better than its counterpart. Anyone know why there's difference? Aware of the resolution challenges but isn't it run off the same data?

[Brent]

The NAM does not want to move that freezing line into Dallas County. It doesn’t get to Love Field until 6am.

It has been consistently wanting to slow the cold for sure, despite speeding up here and there.

Also one of the driest of all the Mesoscale models, does not like the snow very much compared to the Operationals & Ensembles.

Definitely on the low end of the models here. Very odd

[TropicalTundra]

Schools wise to cancel since kids probably won't be able to get there anyway. Even two or three hours of freezing rain could easily get us above the dreaded .25 inch mark unfortunately. This precip will be heavier than most north texas winter storms.

Apparently I'm supposed to have 10 hours of FRZ rain from 1 am - 11 am Thursday. TWC hourly chart is CRAZY. This won't be good.

[cheezyWXguy]

It has been consistently wanting to slow the cold for sure, despite speeding up here and there.

Also one of the driest of all the Mesoscale models, does not like the snow very much compared to the Operationals & Ensembles.

Definitely on the low end of the models here. Very odd

It has been all over the place since this storm came into range. It’s not usually great at handling winter storms, but has been especially bad with this one. Granted, temp wise it is a bit of a step in the right direction from the 18z

[txtwister78]

One thing I've noticed with HI-RES models tonight is they're really bringing in drier air from the north and cutting off precip much faster than globals are. Something to watch tomorrow.

[rwfromkansas]

The regular NAM has changed a lot today, weird.

The 3km NAM has been consistent with speed and precip location/amounts today vs. the lower-res model, so I buy that.

It has been reducing snow amounts as well across OK and parts of TX and shows basically none for DFW. Not sure why. Precip amounts the same, cold the same. I assume differing warm layer thicknesses?

[DallasAg]

The NAM does not want to move that freezing line into Dallas County. It doesn’t get to Love Field until 6am.

Seems like that happened to us in the 2013 storm. Most points north and west of Dallas County changed over to sleet by mid/late evening, but Dallas County stubbornly sloshed around on either side of freezing for a good part of the night. When the heaviest rain moved through and sleet was piling up in buckets elsewhere, we just had the steady flash of power lines arcing under the weight of the ice. It finally dropped back down below freezing early morning the next day, but by then most of the heavy precip had moved out and we got a light coating of sleet on top of the ice.

If heavier rain moves in tomorrow night when the temp is still at or above 32, do we just hover there at 32-34 until there's a break in the action and then we drop below 32? IIRC that's sorta what happened in the January 12-15, 2007 storm. Heavy rain and 31-34 degrees most of the weekend, and only dropped below freezing at the tail end and got a light coating of sleet. Oklahoma got clobbered.

[TheProfessor]

We started mixing 2 hours early. Ground is completely covered in ice now. We didn't even start our warning until 9 PM CST so that's kinda bad. Looks like we will be ahead of schedule for transitioning to snow too. Everything is about 2-3 hours early. Wichita is elevated quite a bit more than the north Texas cities and Tulsa (by 600-900 feet). OKC may actually see some magic due to their elevation.

[rwfromkansas]

One thing I've noticed with HI-RES models tonight is they're really bringing in drier air from the north and cutting off precip much faster than globals are. Something to watch tomorrow.

Hmmm....that's somewhat concerning. Often, something throws a wrench in these things at the last minute, but I thought this was pretty rock solid. Don't think it will come to pass this time. It's pretty juiced up north.

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

TXZ093>095-103>107-118>121-130>134-141>145-156-157-021200-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0001.220203T0000Z-220204T0000Z/
Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Denton-Collin-Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Tarrant-
Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Ellis-
Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Lampasas-Coryell-
Including the cities of Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris,
Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney,
Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores,
Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian,
Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, Clifton,
Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Lampasas, Copperas Cove,
and Gatesville
858 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...A transition from rain to freezing rain then to sleet and
snow. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice
accumulations of two tenths to half an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be dangerous. The hazardous conditions
will impact the morning and evening commute on Thursday. The
cold wind chills as low as zero could result in hypothermia if
precautions are not taken. Power outages and tree damage are
likely due to ice.

[JDawg512]

Where are the Austin folks? Is Portastorm still around?

I'm thinking we end up with an ice storm. Thoughts?

Hello from the southside of Austin. Yea it's looking like it. Don't want it. Would rather it just rain with no freezing temps.

[Quixotic]

Boom goes the dynamite

[Iceresistance]

We started mixing 2 hours early. Ground is completely covered in ice now. We didn't even start our warning until 9 PM CST so that's kinda bad. Looks like we will be ahead of schedule for transitioning to snow too. Everything is about 2-3 hours early. Wichita is elevated quite a bit more than the north Texas cities and Tulsa (by 600-900 feet). OKC may actually see some magic due to their elevation.

The snow line is already rapidly approaching Wichita, & it's already snowing in Kansas City.

[Iceresistance]

Well, that escalated quickly. (Also, I really love the new Screenshot features compared to previously)


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-02-01-9.08.56-PM.png

[Portastorm]

Where are the Austin folks? Is Portastorm still around?

I'm thinking we end up with an ice storm. Thoughts?

I’ve been around … lol … been posting mostly earlier in the days. I’m concerned but still not convinced we see a significant amount of icing. I want to see the 0z suite which come out in a few hours. I’m thinking right now we see .10 to .15 which in itself can be bad enough. I’m just not buying into the heavier precip totals yet.

Ice storms suck. I’d prefer sleet or snow. But Mother Nature hasn’t asked me.

[South Texas Storms]

The threat of freezing rain really looks to be increasing for San Antonio. 0z high-res models are in general agreement of the freezing line reaching into Bexar county before the precip ends there on Thursday.