Texas Winter 2021-2022

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CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4761 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:57 am

rwfromkansas wrote:I missed this in the morning. They do seem to say that this would probably mean deeper cold would also come sooner:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
610 AM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The cold front is moving into far Western North Texas at this hour
and is outperforming guidance by coming in colder than previously
thought. Freezing rain is currently being reported as far south as
Fort Sill, OK. Expect the cold air to barrel south through the day.
The forecast was adjusted to reflect this change by moving up the
onset of winter precipitation. We now have sleet and freezing rain
starting over Montague/Young/Jack Counties as early as 10-11 AM.
The tail-end of the evening rush hour over the far NW of the
Metroplex is now likely to be impacted by winter precip late this
afternoon. The other result of the cooler temperatures is that
less ice is forecast over Western North Texas. While there will be
less ice, there will be more snow and have increased our high end
snow forecast to range between 4-6 inches. We remain confident of
a significant ice storm occurring tonight, although there may be
more sleet than we previously thought due to the cooler temps. The
remainder of the forecast discussion below still applies.


That's funny because at 5:50am the wind was from the NW @ 8 mph, enough to make the wind chimes on my front porch to sing, and there was a noticeable chill as well, got out of gym 7:30am and it was much colder then when I went in @ 6am.

It was 43 at Meachem Airport an hour ago, and I would say it's about 39 now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4762 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:58 am

Chris Robbins mentions thundersleet now:

"DFW/N TX (Wed 2/2/22 at 8:30 am)
...Arctic air moving in...
...Temperatures falling today...
...Heavy rain/a few Tstorms late today...
...Freezing rain/sleet tonight...
...Winter Storm Warning...
➤ A few days ago I mentioned that very cold/dense Arctic airmasses tend to accelerate as they move down the Plains and often arrive in North Texas earlier than the numerical models indicate. This is exactly what has happened. I now expect temperatures to fall to freezing at DFW by 5-6 pm today (earlier NW counties).
➤ Rain will overspread North Texas by late afternoon. A few thunderstorms will be possible. The rain may be heavy at times.
➤ As temperatures fall below freezing, the rain will change to freezing rain and sleet this evening/overnight. Even with freezing rain/sleet, some thunder will be possible.
➤ Freezing rain may cause power outages in some areas. I expect roads to become hazardous overnight, particularly where sleet becomes predominant since sleet tends to accumulate faster on roadways due to ice microphysics.
➤ The sleet/freezing rain should change to snow Thursday morning, mainly over the northwestern half of North Texas. 1-2 inches of snow in the metroplex and adjacent counties, 2-4 inches (locally higher) in the northwestern counties.
➤ Low temperatures tonight in the upper teens to lower 20s. Highs tomorrow (Thursday) holding in the lower to middle 20s.
➤ The Winter Storm Warning has been expanded to include all of North Texas.
—————
Chris Robbins, Meteorologist, M.S., iWeatherNet"
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4763 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:59 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Hope the cold continues to trend more.

If you take the conservative NAM that is a heck of a freezing rain event, especially the eastern counties. .75-1"+ ZR is ugly. Eastplexers would likely get the worst of it.

This would be a very bad situation.

https://i.imgur.com/2vbOn4f.png

Agreed but I’m still of the opinion that most of that will fall as sleet in the immediate metro and northwest. The NAM has been slow to catch up surface temp depictions and it’s probably lagging aloft too. East Texas is in for a ride though.


I do hope so. The thing about colder faster, at the surface, it could make the earlier 'warm rain' discussion from awhile ago to a freezing rain before the deeper cold catches up. May end up with more sleet, snow later on but at the same time the knife is more ZR early on when the heavy heavy qpf hits. This is the risk especially in the east/northeastern counties. 12z GFS does reflect some of that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4764 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:00 am

KFOR now has 6-10+ inches of snow for my area, OKC is expected to get 4-8 inches with 2 Foot Snowdrifts
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4765 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:00 am

rwfromkansas wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Hope the cold continues to trend more.

If you take the conservative NAM that is a heck of a freezing rain event, especially the eastern counties. .75-1"+ ZR is ugly. Eastplexers would likely get the worst of it.

This would be a very bad situation.

https://i.imgur.com/2vbOn4f.png

Agreed but I’m still of the opinion that most of that will fall as sleet in the immediate metro and northwest. The NAM has been slow to catch up surface temp depictions and it’s probably lagging aloft too. East Texas is in for a ride though.


This brings up a good point. The initial surface front is definitely running ahead of schedule. But, is the deeper cold behind doing the same? If not, that would increase freezing rain potential for sure.

Edit to add: Bubba brings up the same point, but it appears we would need good balloon data to really sample the atmosphere to see if this is the case.


The tricky aspect is the initial heavy band moving through later this evening...initially the bulk of that was going to be rain but that maybe changing by the hour, doubt that initial heavy qpf band will be mostly sleet but hopefully, like you said, aloft cools much quicker!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4766 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:06 am

12z GFS run definitely picking up the faster transition up around DFW...puts more sleet down and a nice band of snow across FW. Not so much Dallas yet but some wiggle room with trends.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4767 Postby funster » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:08 am

Looks like we are going to be toast from the freezing rain. No power for several days in many areas. Maybe some nice snow accumulation after the sleet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4768 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:08 am

The Snow line on radar is going further south & faster than expected right now, if the snow line gets past me before the first big wave comes in, I could get DUMPED with a LOT of snow!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4769 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:09 am

Iceresistance wrote:The Snow line on radar is going further south & faster than expected right now, if the snow line gets past me before the first big wave comes in, I could get DUMPED with a LOT of snow!

.
Someone is getting buried around here
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4770 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:11 am

I'm also on board with DFW area being @ freezing by rush hour with some precip in the area. I think getting to freezing earlier will help in a quicker transition from ZR to sleet across Tarrant Co first and a higher ZR amount over Dallas Co before the transition there. This would also bold well for Tarrant Co and counties west and NW with a bigger snow totals. It wouldn't surprise me to see Fort Worth to Denton in a 3"-5" range for snow and 1"-3" snow total Dallas and NE of there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4771 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:19 am

Definitely love that snow band over me on the 12Z GFS. With maybe an inch or two of sleet and I pray not more than .25 an inch of ZR, that would be epic.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4772 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:22 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Definitely love that snow band over me on the 12Z GFS. With maybe an inch or two of sleet and I pray not more than .25 an inch of ZR, that would be epic.


Yeah based on trends you're definitely sitting pretty good for a faster transition to snow than Dallas (stuck in sleet longer which may not be bad either in terms of "less" freezing rain).
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4773 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:23 am

Here's the latest HRRR upper level temp forecast at 6pm when initial band begins moving through....it's the 850 MB level (5,000 ft) that's the warm layer, just above and below that level (925mb & 700mb) are below freezing @ DFW during that time. Typically you need temps at 3 deg C or lower for sleet, as you can see the model is forecasting 4-6 C at 850mb and stays that warm through midnight

925mb
Image
850mb
Image
700mb
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4774 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:26 am

News just did a stream here and their in house model had an 11 inch total very close to me :double: :double: :double: it's clearly picking up an extreme band in the area with 6-8 around that
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4775 Postby opticsguy » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:29 am

12Z GFS has a foot of snow in Collin County (plus sleet) and has it sticking around for a week (shows a cold area at 12Z every morning).
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4776 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:33 am

opticsguy wrote:12Z GFS has a foot of snow in Collin County (plus sleet) and has it sticking around for a week (shows a cold area at 12Z every morning).


Most of that is freezing rain on GFS for Collin co. ~1 inch qpf zr.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4777 Postby Shoshana » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:37 am

Ntxw wrote:
opticsguy wrote:12Z GFS has a foot of snow in Collin County (plus sleet) and has it sticking around for a week (shows a cold area at 12Z every morning).


Most of that is freezing rain on GFS for Collin co. ~1 inch qpf zr.


Oh lovely. I am currently supposed to drive back to Austin Friday from Plano. This could be an interesting situation…
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4778 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:40 am

Pretty strong consensus this morning from all the 12z guidance the northeastern DFW counties are the highest risk of heavy freezing rain early on. This is because of their early onset of freezing along with heavy rain moving in this evening.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4779 Postby EnnisTx » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:42 am

Shoshana wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
opticsguy wrote:12Z GFS has a foot of snow in Collin County (plus sleet) and has it sticking around for a week (shows a cold area at 12Z every morning).


Most of that is freezing rain on GFS for Collin co. ~1 inch qpf zr.


Oh lovely. I am currently supposed to drive back to Austin Friday from Plano. This could be an interesting situation…


I would make other plans for sure.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#4780 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:46 am

Ntxw wrote:Pretty strong consensus this morning from all the 12z guidance the northeastern DFW counties are the highest risk of heavy freezing rain early on. This is because of their early onset of freezing along with heavy rain moving in this evening.


850mb begins cooling on HRRR around 2-3am right as 2nd heavy band moves through....hopefully just really heavy sleet/snow (Thundersleet ??) by then but if that warm nose doesn't erode quick enough, lookout!! some will double their FRZ RN totals with that 2nd band!!
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