Very bad weather for the Virgin islands and the leewards

[cycloneye]

http://storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw3.cg ... &Submit=GO

Those members of storm2k who live in the Virgin islands,ST Thomas,ST John and ST Croix and also in ST Marteen,Antigua and Guadaloupe can expect very bad weather from this slow moving system.For Puerto Rico we haved been spared I think the worst of it because the low pressure is just south of Ponce and moving slowly NE and all the bulk of the bad weather is east of the low due to the upper level winds that continue to be fairly strong not allowing the system to consolidate around the low pressure.However for eastern Puerto Rico,Vieques and Culebra there will be bands of showers and thunderstorms depending where the low moves.If the low moves more to the east of Puerto Rico to the VI then the east half of the island will be spared the worst but if that low moves more north than NE then we can expect bad weather in the eastern half of the island.So all residents of Puerto Rico,the Virgin Islands and the leewards let's watch this system very closely and especially watch where that low is moving and if it is organizing as it moves thru the area.Pressures are very low in the area as San Juan airport is at 1007 mbs as I type this and other stations in the area have also low pressures.

[caribepr]

Thanks Cycloneye, I've been waiting for your take on it. And now, back to watching my yard wash into Ensenada Honda...

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

16.1n-65.9w is where the low pressure is now south of Guayama as the dvorak sat estimates where it is.And that is good news for Puerto Rico because the bulk of the weather is east of the low and as it moves NE the worst weather will be at the VI and the northern Leewards so msbee stay dry there in ST Marteen,Eyelees in Antigua too and HUC in Guadeloupe.

[wxman57]

Early morning visible imagery shows no indication of an LLC, so for now it's still a big rain event. It's possible an LLC could develop on Wed/Thu.

[cycloneye]

Then 57 what is that position 16.1n-65.9w that dvorak is estimating maybe a mid-level circulation instead of a LLC?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Update form Guaynabo Puerto Rico-

Yesterday I measured 2.23 inches of rain. I want to point out that in less than 2 hours I measured 1.81 inches. I also want to point that the slow movement of the system is what worries us most. That's why we got yesterday more than 1.50 in less than 2 hours. And this make flooding a very BIG problem! Today we can also expect more of the same or even more as the core of the system approaches our island. People in Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Islands can expect this severe weather pattern until next Thursday.

[HUC]

Cycloneye,here in Guadeloupe,we got a lot of rain since Saturday,with totals over 150mm;gusts to 97 kh registered in the island of Desirada(just to the east of Guadeloupe).
We are waiting for a rain band wich is drifting from the SSO to the NNE
This situation is rather similar to November 1984 when hurricane Kate forms from the same situation(upper level disturbance aids to strengthening a low level circulation,then a TD forming south of Puerto-Rico,moving NNE,and causing heavy seas,rains and strong winds over the NE Carribean).
Realy,the same situation...
But things cannot reply the same???

[cycloneye]

Well HUC I dont think that this system will be a hurricane however with the slow movement that it is going the biggest threat is the copious amounts of rain that the islands will have and as I said in another thread if conditions are very favorable it well may be a 45-50 mph storm.But my friend stay dry over there and when you can update us here of how are things going in Guadeloupe.

[Josephine96]

Stay safe everyone in harms' way..

[msbee]

I posted this under another thread but just FYI
St. Maarten received officially 150.6 mm ( about 6 inches) of rain yesterday at the airport and more over some parts of the island. and it is still raining lightly this morning.
We had some mudslides and rocks falling onto the roads with minor flooding.
Our local Met Office is watching this one closely.

[JCT777]

That sounds like an awful lot of rain for the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands. I hope things dry out there soon!

[ColdFront77]

[size=12This situation is rather similar to November 1984 when hurricane Kate forms from the same situation (upper level disturbance aids to strengthening a low level circulation,then a TD forming south of Puerto-Rico, moving NNE, and causing heavy seas,rains and strong winds over the NE Carribean).[/size]

Hurricane Kate was in November 1985, not 1984:

[HUC]

Coldfront 77,you are right.It was not Kate,but KLAUSS.Sorry for this error.
I'am very confused for this mistake,especially for a man that is traking hurricanes since 1956(Betsy,was my first...). Again thank's for your correction.

[abajan]

Yeah, we got a much appreciated all day soaking out of that on Sunday but (to the best of my knowledge) no flooding.

We could do with more of the same, spread over many days.

[ColdFront77]

Coldfront 77,you are right.It was not Kate,but KLAUSS.Sorry for this error.
I'am very confused for this mistake,especially for a man that is traking hurricanes since 1956(Betsy,was my first...). Again thank's for your correction.

You're welcome, HUC. Thank you, too.

HURRICANE KLAUS: