#4856 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:16 pm
NWS definitely is buying sleet/snow being predominant over DFW. Glad.
"Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
126 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Thursday afternoon/
Impacts from the highly anticipated winter weather event will
begin this afternoon and become more widespread this evening as
temperatures continue to drop behind the cold front. Winds have
turned out of the north across all of the forecast area as of
noon, with the strong cold push having yet reached the last few
Brazos Valley counties. Meanwhile, the first couple of readings at
or below freezing have shown up across western North Texas. Falling
temperatures will continue into the overnight hours, with sub-freezing
temperatures expanding to the DFW Metroplex between 7 and 9 pm,
Waco by 3 am, and the far southeast counties around daybreak
Thursday.
Rain currently to the west of the forecast area will shift eastward
with the associated lift throughout the afternoon. Simultaneously,
showers are beginning to develop across Central Texas and will
expand in coverage and continue advecting NNE. Intermittent
moderate to heavy rain will be possible at times, with the
potential for a few rumbles of thunder as well.
As temperatures drop and the warm nose erodes, precipitation will
transition from rain to freezing rain, then sleet and finally snow.
After midnight, 850 to 700 mb frontogenesis will dominate as the
primary source of lift and resultantly shift the heaviest
precipitation to the east of the Metroplex. As dry air filters in,
precip chances will end from west to east gradually Thursday,
coming to an end for the entire area by Thursday night. In terms
of accumulations, not much has changed from the overnight forecast
update. Accumulations of sleet/snow will be greatest along the
northwest, where anywhere up to 4 inches is expected through
tomorrow and will mostly fall as snow. A gradient of a mixture of
sleet and snow will set up over the DFW Metro and parts of
Central Texas, while just sleet is expected across southern and
eastern Central Texas.
For ice accumulations, some of the more recent guidance has
pointed to a faster transition to sleet rather than freezing rain,
so ice totals have been adjusted to account for this across the
area. Widespread ice amounts of a tenth of an inch to two tenths
of an inch are expected across most of North and Central Texas
through Thursday evening. The exception to this will be where
localized, heavier bands of freezing rain develop tonight and also
across the northeast where amounts upwards of three tenths of an
inch are expected.
Wind chill values overnight will bottom out near zero in north
and west, and low teens across the south and east, while high
temperatures Thursday will fail to reach above freezing. Overall,
the key takeaways from the short term forecast should be that:
1) Hazardous travel conditions will begin across the northwest
this afternoon and continue to spread southeast throughout the
evening and overnight. AVOID travel if at all possible tonight
and Thursday.
2) MUCH colder temperatures with dangerous wind chill values
arrive today/tonight and will stick around through the end of
the work week. Protect the 4 P`s: People, Pets, Plants, and
Pipes.
3) In addition to roads being impacted, icing to infrastructure such
as utility lines and tree branches will likely create sporadic
power outages across the area. Now is the last chance to ensure
you have emergency supplies prepared before travel becomes
dangerous.
Gordon"
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
