Texas Winter 2021-2022

[GeauxTigers]

Just heard NBC5 DFW Rick Mitchell say he thinks 1-3”. Thought DFW was supposed to get more. I’m hour north of that on border of north Denton county & Grayson county.

[Ntxw]

Can confirm freezing rain here in Frisco. Trees and cars right now.

If that doesn't change to sleet soon, you guys may be in for some hefty ZR accretion. That's what the guidance was showing, heavier qpf than anything out west saw earlier to really rack it up.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 0112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Wed Feb 02 2022

Areas affected...much of central Oklahoma

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 030025Z - 030430Z

SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and moderate snow is
expected to continue across central Oklahoma into the evening hours.
A gradual change over to snow is expected to happen across central
into eastern Oklahoma as low to mid-level temperatures continue to
cool from west to east.

DISCUSSION...An embedded mid-level impulse is pivoting around the
broader upper trough and is ejecting into the southern Plains,
contributing to an uptick in more widespread moderate to heavy
wintry precipitation. Instances of freezing rain and sleet have been
reported across northern TX into eastern OK, with northern OK
experiencing brief occasions of moderate snow. The 21Z and 00Z OUN
observed soundings showed 0-1C temperatures just above 850 mb
(1500-1700 meters above ground level), with KTLX/KFDR
dual-polarimetric radar data depicting a band of higher ZDR/lower
correlation-coefficient values from Cotton/Jefferson to Creek
Counties in OK, indicating the location of the wintry precipitation
transition zone. However, some of the last few radar scans show an
eastward propagation of the transition zone.

While wintry mixed precipitation is expected to persist, a gradual
transition to mostly snow is possible from western to eastern OK as
the 850 mb temperatures continue to slowly cool. However, despite
the near-saturated troposphere, temperatures above 850 mb hovering
near the freezing mark may reduce efficiency in dendrite production,
with snow rates expected to be moderate, perhaps reaching 1
inch/hour rates on a brief basis. Wintry mixed precipitation should
persist the longest across eastern OK.

..Squitieri.. 02/03/2022

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

[Iceresistance]

It's now full-blown snow! And it's piling up outside! 22°F

[Ralph's Weather]

Freeze line is basically from Junction to South of DFW (though Dallas itself is holding at 34) to Paris. Here it is holding about 40 with mid 30s just NW of here.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just heard NBC5 DFW Rick Mitchell say he thinks 1-3”. Thought DFW was supposed to get more. I’m hour north of that on border of north Denton county & Grayson county.

Thats the official accumulation forecast from the NWS. Given the model runs seen today I think they're all going to be playing catchup while the event is underway.

[DFWLady]

I'm sitting at 33 degrees and a steady heavy rain in Rockwall for about the last 2 hours! Waiting for my groceries outside Walmart and so far nothing but liquid! Here we go everyone! Cheers!

[gboudx]

I'm sitting at 33 degrees and a steady heavy rain in Rockwall for about the last 2 hours! Waiting for my groceries outside Walmart and so far nothing but liquid! Here we go everyone! Cheers!

I’m in northern part of the county and it’s 32. 3 area PWSs show that temp. Plus my laser temp reader shows 31.

USA and Honduras are playing a World Cup qualifying match in St. Paul, MN. 5 degrees.

[Portastorm]

For giggles.

Euro from 0z last Thursday yikes.

https://i.imgur.com/hQWFUTb.png

GFS not perfect but way closer to reality.

https://i.imgur.com/Ac2W4gC.png

King Euroff Vs GFS the new King.

King Euro lost its crown long ago, maybe time for it to look into some assisted living centers

King Euro is like Theoden in Lord of the Rings when he was under the influence of Wormtongue.

Surprisingly the NAM has been miserable for this event too. But yes, I’ll hand it to you guys touting the GFS (and the ICON). They did pretty well.

[EnnisTx]

Texans watching records get shattered the next 24 hours

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e9/75/a0/e975a0235d684ae577d7d893b02aebce.gif

I don't know, looks more like an Oklahoman to me. Notice the size of the mouth!

[chickypez]

32 and freezing rain in Allen.

[WinterMax]

Freeze line is basically from Junction to South of DFW (though Dallas itself is holding at 34) to Paris. Here it is holding about 40 with mid 30s just NW of here.

It's been at 33 here in Paris for the last hour, the difference is the rain has picked up, light to moderate steady rain now. The longer it stays at 33 the better here, because i don't really see the sleet, snow line approaching anytime time soon.

Edit: it just hit 32. Probably no big problems until it hits 28, but no way out of this.

[AubreyStorm]

[Ntxw]

Maybe HRRR/RAP will score the snow totals given some of the happenings upstream.

[DW5522]

29 and just changed over from freezing rain to a pretty heavy sleet in Pottsboro north of Sherman.

[txtwister78]

King Euroff Vs GFS the new King.

King Euro lost its crown long ago, maybe time for it to look into some assisted living centers

King Euro is like Theoden in Lord of the Rings when he was under the influence of Wormtongue.

Surprisingly the NAM has been miserable for this event too. But yes, I’ll hand it to you guys touting the GFS (and the ICON). They did pretty well.

Euro still has its moments of glory, but down here in our region it's definitely struggled with the arctic airmasses no question about it. Agreed about NAM...it's also struggled based on current trends. RAP and some of the WRF members are handling this well I think (particularly with temps).

[DW5522]

Everything has a solid coating of ice from about an hour of light freezing rain.

[GeauxTigers]

29 and just changed over from freezing rain to a pretty heavy sleet in Pottsboro north of Sherman.

I might be close then!

[LearnedHat]

Just raining in Keller for the last few hours. Says it is 32 outside but nothing falling is frozen and nothing that has fallen is frozen (trees, fences, etc.) - 0.25inches so far maybe gotta lotta of liquid thermal mass outside right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Maybe HRRR/RAP will score the snow totals given some of the happenings upstream.

https://i.imgur.com/q9bKJJS.png

HRRR seems to be going back and forth on the transition time between sleet and snow, the RAP has been more consistent. I’m thinking we’ll end up somewhere between the two.