Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TheProfessor]

And we may be doing this all over again by Valentines Day

Any models to post for those runs?

Both GEFS and EPS digs a trough in the same place we are seeing now with PV lobe Valentines week. Look for a similar set up to appear on the guidance. We've had slow hints but the ensembles are now zoning in on it.

https://i.imgur.com/LJu3kCp.png

I'd say y'all can have it, but then I'd still have to deal with the cold. Can't we just have a bowling ball move over DFW and give me some cool weather and rain?

[CaptinCrunch]

Now on the back edge of snow shield, things are slowly coming to a end. I would say 1.5" of snow fell in that hour.

Models pretty much nailed this system, warm nose held on longer than models showed, but all in all pretty good winter event. .2"-.3" of ZR, .5"-1.5" of sleet, 1" - 3" of snow on average for DFW area.

[gpsnowman]

I would say a little over an inch now.

For sure. Just got back from a little walk in the snow with the daughter. Damn I love the snow.

[Ntxw]

One thing not talked about is how resilient that NE Pac ridge has been. Probably not since 2013-2014 (persistent chill since the new year). Amazing how a little shift in the placement of the Pacific ridge can have vastly different outcomes.

[cstrunk]

The freezing line has just made it to my house. Currently 32.2F (close enough). Hopefully most of the precipitation is gone by the time the temps drop below 30F. I still expect a lot of slick roads by later this afternoon and especially overnight on any roads that remain wet. Black ice will likely be a big issue.

[Tireman4]

Any models to post for those runs?

Both GEFS and EPS digs a trough in the same place we are seeing now with PV lobe Valentines week. Look for a similar set up to appear on the guidance. We've had slow hints but the ensembles are now zoning in on it.

https://i.imgur.com/LJu3kCp.png

I'd say y'all can have it, but then I'd still have to deal with the cold. Can't we just have a bowling ball move over DFW and give me some cool weather and rain?

Mother Nature to the Professor, "No, you cannot. Thank you for asking"

[TexasStorm]

Now on the back edge of snow shield, things are slowly coming to a end. I would say 1.5" of snow fell in that hour.

Models pretty much nailed this system, warm nose held on longer than models showed, but all in all pretty good winter event. .2"-.3" of ZR, .5"-1.5" of sleet, 1" - 3" of snow on average for DFW area.

Its a pretty steep drop-off just east of DFW. I am in northern Kaufman and we only got about .10 - .15 of ZR, .5 sleet, 0 snow (still few sleet pellets falling)(assume it may be something to do with being close to Lake Ray Hubbard keeping the warm nose intact)

[Ntxw]

Now on the back edge of snow shield, things are slowly coming to a end. I would say 1.5" of snow fell in that hour.

Models pretty much nailed this system, warm nose held on longer than models showed, but all in all pretty good winter event. .2"-.3" of ZR, .5"-1.5" of sleet, 1" - 3" of snow on average for DFW area.

Its a pretty steep drop-off just east of DFW. I am in northern Kaufman and we only got about .10 - .15 of ZR, .5 sleet, 0 snow (still few sleet pellets falling)(assume it may be something to do with being close to Lake Ray Hubbard keeping the warm nose intact)

Yeah, the snow has been a little bit of a bonus. It really didn't show up that much until we got closer into the Hi Res range. That warm nose gave us all that qpf but living on the edge.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the airport got about 1" for snow depth. Not sure about that hourly qpf though.

[iorange55]

Just because I feel left out, here's a photo I took of the snow in Oregon for Christmas. Gf's mom rented out a cabin and it snowed pretty much the entire time. First White Christmas! And while I enjoyed it and it was ridiculously pretty, the power also went out (along with no cell service) and we had to boil the water before drinking it, lol.

[Cerlin]

DFW SNOW!!! I’m happy for you metroplexers! Hopefully this event means the snow drought is officially officially over and we can move into a more active pattern to more routinely hit the average snowfall per year. I hope no one has lost power too bad—checked with my relatives and they’re all good in Frisco. We’ve got about 4.5-5 inches here as of now with another 2 likely on the way today. I’m excited, I love snow, and thank you to everyone here for your continual amazing analysis to help us all prepare and enjoy nature’s wonders.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

And we may be doing this all over again by Valentines Day

Any models to post for those runs?

Both GEFS and EPS digs a trough in the same place we are seeing now with PV lobe Valentines week. Look for a similar set up to appear on the guidance. We've had slow hints but the ensembles are now zoning in on it.

https://i.imgur.com/LJu3kCp.png

If this ends up happening, hopefully it sends snow to the Austin-San Antonio Corridor (my nickname for the area) and Houston. DFW & Oklahoma had enough this time around. Then again, that would mean bitter cold would happen in DFW…

[utpmg]

Moderate to maybe kinda heavy sleet going on right now in east-central Austin. I don't *think* there's any freezing rain along with it.

[Quixotic]

It’s difficult to say but all in all I’d say 2” of ice, sleet and snow as the flurries dwindle. Not what I was hoping but I’ll take it.

Did see some goober towing their kids behind their truck earlier.

[bubba hotep]

Big flakes mixing in! Pics coming soon.

Never fully transitioned to snow and ended with mostly sleet. This is by far the most sleet I've ever seen, so I guess that is something... Rain gauge looks like 2.5 frozen liquid with a bunch of sleet on top, so some very much needed rain.

[gboudx]

Now on the back edge of snow shield, things are slowly coming to a end. I would say 1.5" of snow fell in that hour.

Models pretty much nailed this system, warm nose held on longer than models showed, but all in all pretty good winter event. .2"-.3" of ZR, .5"-1.5" of sleet, 1" - 3" of snow on average for DFW area.

Its a pretty steep drop-off just east of DFW. I am in northern Kaufman and we only got about .10 - .15 of ZR, .5 sleet, 0 snow (still few sleet pellets falling)(assume it may be something to do with being close to Lake Ray Hubbard keeping the warm nose intact)

I have doubts Ray Hubbard is large enough to have that kind of impact. I live about 300 yards east of it for perspective. I think it would need to be much larger to have an atmospheric affect. I also grew up in NOLA and the temp differences between the northshore and southshore can be quite different. But Ponchartrain is 629 sq miles, whereas Ray Hubbard is only about 35 sq miles.

[Iceresistance]

So we might do it again?


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_63.png

[SoupBone]

Looks like Houston is back with the freezing rain threat. Hmmm...

[Ralph's Weather]

25 here with mixed drizzle. I'd expect it to end with a 30 minute burst of half an inch of snow in a couple hours. Very little accumulation of anything here. Elevated surfaces have a dusting to 1/4" of snow and sleet. Light glaze of ice. Roads don't look bad but at at 25 I'm sure there are bad spots.

[jaguars_22]

Soupbone- I know that the models were showing ice yesterday but I think most of those don’t today… idk looks dry