Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Tireman4]

One thing I notice (with the GFS) is that the current cross-Polar flow indicated at 500mb is gone this weekend, and it doesn't return over the next 16 days. Of course, the GFS can't be trusted beyond 3-5 days, so who knows what's coming? I just hope that the temperature never climbs above freezing. Just got back from a refreshing bike ride. There are icicles hanging down from my eyebrows.

Huh? Who is this? Did the Propane Heater go out on you?

[orangeblood]

Mid-month not looking great unless we can get the NE Pacific Ridge to pop back into Alaska...too much Pacific air with this look, not enough Arctic air



To compare, here was the 500mb look for this week

[Iceresistance]

Mid-month not looking great unless we can get the NE Pacific Ridge to pop back into Alaska...too much Pacific air with this look, not enough Arctic air

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022020412/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_53.png

The MJO is back in action once again at Phase 3, if it goes inactive again, this could really mess up the models once more.

[ROCK]

Here in Brownwood got about 1.5in of sleet with 1/4in of snow on top…Way more sleet / ice than I expected for this event. Never lost power which is a good thing with a low of 10 forecasted for tonight.

[bubba hotep]

Mid-month not looking great unless we can get the NE Pacific Ridge to pop back into Alaska...too much Pacific air with this look, not enough Arctic air



To compare, here was the 500mb look for this week
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022020200/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_3.png

That is a pretty big 24hr swing on the GEFS but it also happened on the Euro EPS. Models are probably struggling with what to do with the MJO since it is currently low amplitude.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I got 5 inches of rain here in Georgia with some flooding occurring. That’s a lot of rain.

[bubba hotep]

Ok, so who got what?

Denison: 1/4” of ice; 1.5” of sleet; 1-2” of snow; lowest temperature of 20 (so far).

1.7 inches combined sleet and snow in DFW. Record low tomorrow is 12. It will close.

FWD currently going with 14F. The sun today ate a lot of ice pack and winds will be 5-10 mph. However, looking at last visible sat and it looks like the swath of snow that crossed the airport might have held on somewhat. So I think it is a toss up but I might fade a bit warmer than the forecast 14F.

[gpsnowman]

Ok, so who got what?

Denison: 1/4” of ice; 1.5” of sleet; 1-2” of snow; lowest temperature of 20 (so far).

1.7 inches combined sleet and snow in DFW. Record low tomorrow is 12. It will close.

FWD currently going with 14F. The sun today ate a lot of ice pack and winds will be 5-10 mph. However, looking at last visible sat and it looks like the swath of snow that crossed the airport might have held on somewhat. So I think it is a toss up but I might fade a bit warmer than the forecast 14F.

I think you are correct. Much has melted but another night in the teens with no wind is in store. I'll find out at 4 in the morning.

[Brent]

Surprisingly we got above freezing today(above the forecast) but yeah everything is going to refreeze tonight with a low around 5 lot of snow melt today the main roads were fine but the side streets were a fun mess

[Yukon Cornelius]

Mid-month not looking great unless we can get the NE Pacific Ridge to pop back into Alaska...too much Pacific air with this look, not enough Arctic air

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022020412/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_53.png

To compare, here was the 500mb look for this week
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022020200/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_3.png

Our local meteorologist was just talking about this and a warm period coming up.

[Brent]

Mid-month not looking great unless we can get the NE Pacific Ridge to pop back into Alaska...too much Pacific air with this look, not enough Arctic air

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022020412/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_53.png

To compare, here was the 500mb look for this week
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022020200/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_3.png

Our local meteorologist was just talking about this and a warm period coming up.

Possibly 60s end of next week here. Quick shot Super Bowl Sunday but nothing remotely cold vs what we just had

[somethingfunny]

Since I moved to Dallas in 2002 I've noticed we're usually good for one wintry precip impact per winter. It might just be a freezing drizzle glaze or a light snow dusting, but you could count on frozen precipitation sticking to the ground once every season, and usually not more than once. The only deviations I recall were 09-10, 10-11, 14-15, and of course every winter between 2015 and 2021. Maybe this was just that one storm filling our quota. Particularly with a La Nina, I'm really not expecting any more winter precip impacts for Dallas this winter. ... Just my dumb hunch.

[NDG]

Interesting how the GFS was too aggressive with forecasting single digits lows through central TX over the snow cover, did the snow melted more than forecasted?

[NDG]

Spring for the south is just around the corner.

[orangeblood]

Spring for the south is just around the corner.

https://i.imgur.com/QwYxEaK.gif

Yep, game over if this gets into 4,5,6



And really unfortunate but not surprising we never were able to swing through the prime winter phases of 8-1-2

[rwfromkansas]

Only got down to 16 IMBY. Very quick melting yesterday, and I knew it would bust high with temp because it was already 25 early in the morning with bright sun. Got up to 35, which pretty much doomed the minimal ice pack.

Well, guess on to spring. I am glad we had a good event because until last year, my only non-flizzard event was in 2014-2015, when we moved here!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Despite it being clear and calm last night, it didn’t get anywhere close to the forecasted low. The low was forecasted at 6. It only got down to 13 which isn’t the coldest we’ve gotten this season.

[HockeyTx82]

Interesting how the GFS was too aggressive with forecasting single digits lows through central TX over the snow cover, did the snow melted more than forecasted?

https://i.imgur.com/MQkd8HR.gif

I'm out of the heat island and usually much colder then other areas. Yes, snow/ice metled yesterday. Some on grass but streets look basically clear now.

My thermometer went down to 15F at 6:16AM. Like someone else said not the coldest we have seen.

Go home GFS, you're drunk.

Throw it out with the trash.

[wxman57]

It's sad to say that we have now likely passed the "peak" of winter in Texas. Warming temperatures are on the horizon. The GFS' mid-month ice storm is but a memory. Instead, we'll have to suffer through temps in the 70s next weekend. Yesterday was so perfect. First day of the winter where I could turn off the AC and open all the windows.

[HockeyTx82]

It's sad to say that we have now likely passed the "peak" of winter in Texas. Warming temperatures are on the horizon. The GFS' mid-month ice storm is but a memory. Instead, we'll have to suffer through temps in the 70s next weekend. Yesterday was so perfect. First day of the winter where I could turn off the AC and open all the windows.

Anyone know where he lives? We need a wellness check-up.

That or once he thaws out he will be himself again. Cold affects everyone differently.