Texas Winter 2021-2022

[gboudx]

YES! More cold, snow, sleet, and freezing rain possible for Texas next week! I can't wait!

What the hell are you talking about? This system looks much less severe and more progressive. Sure, we'll get a little cold air, but winter is on its way out now.

It's like a conversation between Smeagol and Gollum.

Smeagol: Masters says we likes it cold.
Gollum: Masters is betraying us! Masters only likeses heat!
Smeagol: But Masters is good to us and says the colds is the goodest.
Gollum: MASTERS LIES! Masters only likeses hot! Hot likeses Mordor!

[wxman57]

Dear Mr. Groundhog, would you care to weigh in on a projected weather day for Feb. 20th, way down in New Orleans? Asking for a friend who is riding in a Mardi Gras parade.

That's pretty far out to be confident in anything. 12Z GFS indicates clear and cool with a low in the upper 30s and a high near 60. Good Mardi Gras parade weather, I suppose. HOWEVER, I don't believe the 12Z GFS is correct, necessarily. Checking the projected 500mb flow in the 12Z GFS and 00Z Euro for 240 hrs out, on the 17th, I do see somewhat similar features. There's the main upper trough passing Texas around the 17th-18th, which could lead to the clearing that the GFS predicts. What concerns me is a second feature upstream over Oregon on the 17th. That feature could spell trouble by the 20th. Bottom line - it's way too early to speculate on the weather 12 days out. One think that seems unlikely is a warm, southerly wind with lots of moisture. Your friend will likely need a jacket. Check back in a week.

[wxman22]

Some models are bringing back the pre valentines storm.

https://i.ibb.co/TK61cWX/icon-2022-02-08-12-Z-102-36-921-255-101-25-565-266-761-Rain-Snow-Radar-highways.png

https://i.ibb.co/WFcXLrQ/icon-2022-02-08-12-Z-105-36-921-255-101-25-565-266-761-Rain-Snow-Radar-highways.png

https://i.ibb.co/gSq9x8R/icon-2022-02-08-12-Z-108-37-255-933-24-944-267-333-Rain-Snow-Radar-highways.png

Surface looks way too warm though....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/t2m_f/1644321600/1644688800-Cvp4aGSfPdA.png

Of course not saying its time to get "excited" LOL.Just watching it for trends if models start to get colder and dig the storm more.

[DallasAg]

The latest CPC guidance has a "slight risk" for heavy snow in the 8-14 day timeframe (2/16-2/22) in a broad swath from New Mexico to Illinois, including the NW half of Oklahoma and the TX panhandle:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ntours.png

[Brent]

The latest CPC guidance has a "slight risk" for heavy snow in the 8-14 day timeframe (2/16-2/22) in a broad swath from New Mexico to Illinois, including the NW half of Oklahoma and the TX panhandle:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ntours.png

Interesting. Looks a lot like last week

Right now it's not as cold as last week but I also remember the apps a week out last week being warm so there's that

[SoupBone]

Dear Mr. Groundhog, would you care to weigh in on a projected weather day for Feb. 20th, way down in New Orleans? Asking for a friend who is riding in a Mardi Gras parade.

That's pretty far out to be confident in anything. 12Z GFS indicates clear and cool with a low in the upper 30s and a high near 60. Good Mardi Gras parade weather, I suppose. HOWEVER, I don't believe the 12Z GFS is correct, necessarily. Checking the projected 500mb flow in the 12Z GFS and 00Z Euro for 240 hrs out, on the 17th, I do see somewhat similar features. There's the main upper trough passing Texas around the 17th-18th, which could lead to the clearing that the GFS predicts. What concerns me is a second feature upstream over Oregon on the 17th. That feature could spell trouble by the 20th. Bottom line - it's way too early to speculate on the weather 12 days out. One think that seems unlikely is a warm, southerly wind with lots of moisture. Your friend will likely need a jacket. Check back in a week.

I knew you couldn't give anything definitive that far out, but I appreciate this. The debate we're having is whether it will rain and whether they will need a jacket because it will likely be cold. I'm thinking it's going to be jacket weather for sure.

[wxman57]

Dear Mr. Groundhog, would you care to weigh in on a projected weather day for Feb. 20th, way down in New Orleans? Asking for a friend who is riding in a Mardi Gras parade.

That's pretty far out to be confident in anything. 12Z GFS indicates clear and cool with a low in the upper 30s and a high near 60. Good Mardi Gras parade weather, I suppose. HOWEVER, I don't believe the 12Z GFS is correct, necessarily. Checking the projected 500mb flow in the 12Z GFS and 00Z Euro for 240 hrs out, on the 17th, I do see somewhat similar features. There's the main upper trough passing Texas around the 17th-18th, which could lead to the clearing that the GFS predicts. What concerns me is a second feature upstream over Oregon on the 17th. That feature could spell trouble by the 20th. Bottom line - it's way too early to speculate on the weather 12 days out. One think that seems unlikely is a warm, southerly wind with lots of moisture. Your friend will likely need a jacket. Check back in a week.

I knew you couldn't give anything definitive that far out, but I appreciate this. The debate we're having is whether it will rain and whether they will need a jacket because it will likely be cold. I'm thinking it's going to be jacket weather for sure.

12Z European model is more optimistic, with not much of an upstream disturbance around the 17th-18th. Cool and dry seems more likely - so far.

[bubba hotep]

12z ensembles certainly raise the possibility (all be it low) of two winter wx windows for N. Texas to Oklahoma. I wouldn't be surprised to either the 12/13th or 18/19th threats trend higher.

[Iceresistance]

12z ensembles certainly raise the possibility (all be it low) of two winter wx windows for N. Texas to Oklahoma. I wouldn't be surprised to either the 12/13th or 18/19th threats trend higher.

My school was not thrilled when I told them that there is a chance of snow Next Week.

[Haris]

12z ensembles certainly raise the possibility (all be it low) of two winter wx windows for N. Texas to Oklahoma. I wouldn't be surprised to either the 12/13th or 18/19th threats trend higher.

18z GEFS definitely eyebrow raiser

[Iceresistance]

The Climate Prediction Center just got really interesting.



https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Oh-boy.png

[wxman57]

12z ensembles certainly raise the possibility (all be it low) of two winter wx windows for N. Texas to Oklahoma. I wouldn't be surprised to either the 12/13th or 18/19th threats trend higher.

18z GEFS definitely eyebrow raiser

I don't know, my eyebrows remained stationary. Possibly two light freezes all the way down to D-FW?

[Haris]

12z ensembles certainly raise the possibility (all be it low) of two winter wx windows for N. Texas to Oklahoma. I wouldn't be surprised to either the 12/13th or 18/19th threats trend higher.

18z GEFS definitely eyebrow raiser

I don't know, my eyebrows remained stationary. Possibly two light freezes all the way down to D-FW?

Lol I meant a couple members show a full fledged storm on the 18th but I am grasping for straws too admittedly

[orangeblood]

18z GEFS definitely eyebrow raiser

I don't know, my eyebrows remained stationary. Possibly two light freezes all the way down to D-FW?

Lol I meant a couple members show a full fledged storm on the 18th but I am grasping for straws too admittedly

More than just grasping, trending to a much deeper/colder setup

[Quixotic]

No more frz rain. It kept the grass straight and ruined the aesthetic of the sleet and snow being all nice and even.

[cheezyWXguy]

Keep the oranges and purples away please. Kthx

[Iceresistance]

0z GEFS has a Mean snowfall of 1-2 inches for my area on the Valentines Week storm, the signal is getting stronger.

[Iceresistance]

Why is the 0z Euro not hyping anyone?

[wxman57]

Why is the 0z Euro not hyping anyone?

The thunderstorms across Texas on the 17th?

[Iceresistance]

Why is the 0z Euro not hyping anyone?

The thunderstorms across Texas on the 17th?

I noticed snow across NW & Panhandle Texas & into Oklahoma.

There might be severe storms on the Southern Half of Texas as well as you pointed out.