Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Yukon Cornelius]

Weather Powers that Be, I would like to request a 250 mile trend to the SE. Thanks in advance.

https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022021012/174/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png

Pass on that. I’d be driving right through the heart of that during that time if it verifies.

[TheProfessor]

12z CMC is the worst case scenario for us, weak trough and little to no QPF. Meanwhile both the GFS and Euro are showing monster snowstorms (30" on the GFS with Kuchera for Salina ). Only difference is location.

[TheProfessor]

In terms of severe weather 12z Euro was a step back, trough is weaker, less negatively tilted, further south. Still has big snow, however for southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Still would rather see a stronger trough dig more than be more suppressed.

[wxman57]

Hm...I was supposed to drive down to DFW for a concert next Wednesday--maybe I should hold off?

Weather should be fine prior to early Wednesday afternoon.

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC is the worst case scenario for us, weak trough and little to no QPF. Meanwhile both the GFS and Euro are showing monster snowstorms (30" on the GFS with Kuchera for Salina ). Only difference is location.

I don't know what's with the CMC with that run, it could be a poor performance run compared to the Euro & GFS (Euro has a LOT of snow in a HUGE difference in locations, Guthrie, OK gets a Foot of snow, but I only get 1-2 inches, it highly depends on the Snowbands.)

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 said that there are at least 2 Scenarios for this storm, Track #1 has snow (Wind Blown, near Blizzard conditions) for NW Oklahoma & into Kansas with Severe Storms for most of the state, Track #2 is further SE & has near Blizzard conditions for SW, Central, & NE Oklahoma, especially along I-44.

[Cerlin]

Uhhh…seeing snow showers popping up around Oklahoma now. Am I oblivious or did no one know this was a possibility?

[gpsnowman]

Uhhh…seeing snow showers popping up around Oklahoma now. Am I oblivious or did no one know this was a possibility?

The snow stretches from Tulsa to Santa Fe with Lubbock and Amarillo both reporting snow in between.

[funster]

Snow showers appear to be intensifying a little to the west. Maybe some potential for wet flakes that don't stick when the band arrives?

 https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1492505297243488260

[gpsnowman]

Snow showers appear to be intensifying a little to the west. Maybe some potential for wet flakes that don't stick when the band arrives?

https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1492505297243488260

I can confirm. Very light snow flurry south side of the airport.

[gpsnowman]

Snow showers appear to be intensifying a little to the west. Maybe some potential for wet flakes that don't stick when the band arrives?

https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1492505297243488260

I can confirm. Very light snow flurry south side of the airport.

Wow. Small flakes flyimg around everywhere!!! Didn't expect this.

[gpsnowman]

More than a flurry now. Wind blown flakes. Small but numerous.

[Iceresistance]

I didn't see any snow, did I miss it or I'm just very unlucky for this system?

[Texas Snow]

Yep looked outside and was like what the heck? Lots of flurries currently

[Iceresistance]

I do believe that the CMC now has a Dry Bias.

[wxman22]

Some models are bringing back the pre valentines storm.

https://i.ibb.co/TK61cWX/icon-2022-02-08-12-Z-102-36-921-255-101-25-565-266-761-Rain-Snow-Radar-highways.png

https://i.ibb.co/WFcXLrQ/icon-2022-02-08-12-Z-105-36-921-255-101-25-565-266-761-Rain-Snow-Radar-highways.png

https://i.ibb.co/gSq9x8R/icon-2022-02-08-12-Z-108-37-255-933-24-944-267-333-Rain-Snow-Radar-highways.png

Surface looks way too warm though....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/t2m_f/1644321600/1644688800-Cvp4aGSfPdA.png

Of course not saying its time to get "excited" LOL.Just watching it for trends if models start to get colder and dig the storm more.

I mentioned this the other day that models were starting to show the potential for snow today.

[Texas Snowman]

Snow showers in North Texas?!?

It can’t be, I tell you! I read just the other day that winter was likely done for everyone, even those of us in northern Texas.

[gboudx]

Flizzard and sleet here in Rockwall.

[Texas Snow]

Is the snow in the bigger band from Denton down to west Fort Worth and westward making it to the ground? Not really seeing new mPing reports out that way.

Edit: switched radars and not as impressive as it seemed.

[Iceresistance]

The models have made a very worrying trend, there's less QPF compared to Yesterday on the Valentine's week Storm System.