2022 Severe Weather

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's gonna be quiet for a while. Winter slump is in full effect now with not much happening the next few weeks.

It do be like that sometimes...

[Iceresistance]

Looks like it's gonna be quiet for a while. Winter slump is in full effect now with not much happening the next few weeks.

It do be like that sometimes...

There are Marginal Risks in the Deep South & Florida in the next couple of days, not much otherwise, even though I don't take any chances, even with a Marginal risk.

[Iceresistance]

Slight Risk for the Florida Panhandle Today.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the majority of today's event is going to be nocturnal so hopefully everyone down there has a way to get warnings. Luckily the main threat will be over a small area but as always it only takes one to make it a memorable event.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like there were several tornadoes this morning with some injuries reported in FL. Hope everyone ends up okay over there.

[Iceresistance]

Looks like there were several tornadoes this morning with some injuries reported in FL. Hope everyone ends up okay over there.

That's not good, I'm expected to be in Florida in Early May. (I will try to stay behind at home if there is potential for an Outbreak for Central Oklahoma)

[Iceresistance]

Slight risk for Eastern Texas, most of Louisiana, Southern Arkansas, & Western Mississippi today.

[ElectricStorm]

It's been a quiet couple of weeks but models and SPC are both hinting at an uptick in severe weather across parts of TX and eastwards. Still a week out, but this will have to be one to watch.

[ElectricStorm]

Slight risk event ongoing in MS/AL today. Multiple confirmed tornadoes ongoing and a potentially strong one on the ground right now. Hope everyone stays safe down there.

[ElectricStorm]

Slight risk event ongoing in MS/AL today. Multiple confirmed tornadoes ongoing and a potentially strong one on the ground right now. Hope everyone stays safe down there.

Unfortunately it appears there was a fatality with that strong tornado in AL. Also 8 injuries. 3 of them critical.

[ElectricStorm]

It's a week out so a lot can (and will) change, but I think we're going to have some sort of severe weather event next week, particularly in the dixie alley/deep south region. Might get some action in OK/TX as well but as of right now that's looking like more of a rain event. Most of the time the system moves slower than the models show initially so we'll see what happens. Too early for specifics but it's looking like the 2/16-2/18 range needs to be watched for an uptick in severe weather potential.

[Iceresistance]

The Southern Plains may get a head start in Severe Storms Next Week, then Dixie Alley gets it.

Day 6

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/day6prob.gif

Day 7

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/day7prob.gif

[Iceresistance]

12z NAM sounding near Tecumseh, OK looks really impressive for a Marginal Risk

[ElectricStorm]

A rare special Day 3 outlook
Expanding the slight risk north and west.

[Iceresistance]

A rare special Day 3 outlook
Expanding the slight risk north and west.
https://i.imgur.com/PIm9kSa.gif

A high number of models were consistent for Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Texas Wednesday, that's the main reason why they updated the Day 3 outlook. Here's the updated discussion:

The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for
increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to
the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles,
forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with
thunderstorm development. A surface low is forecast to develop
eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening.
At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across
western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from
northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture
will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the
surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures
around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially
given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast
hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with
long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms
capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the
evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km,
which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature
of convection.

[ElectricStorm]

A rare special Day 3 outlook
Expanding the slight risk north and west.
https://i.imgur.com/PIm9kSa.gif

A high number of models were consistent for Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Texas Wednesday, that's the main reason why they updated the Day 3 outlook. Here's the updated discussion:

The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for
increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to
the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles,
forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with
thunderstorm development. A surface low is forecast to develop
eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening.
At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across
western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from
northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture
will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the
surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures
around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially
given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast
hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with
long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms
capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the
evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km,
which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature
of convection.

Yeah I'm not surprised at all. I just thought they would wait until the Day 2

[Iceresistance]

A rare special Day 3 outlook
Expanding the slight risk north and west.
https://i.imgur.com/PIm9kSa.gif

A high number of models were consistent for Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Texas Wednesday, that's the main reason why they updated the Day 3 outlook. Here's the updated discussion:

The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for
increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to
the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles,
forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with
thunderstorm development. A surface low is forecast to develop
eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening.
At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across
western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from
northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture
will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the
surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures
around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially
given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast
hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with
long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms
capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the
evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km,
which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature
of convection.

Yeah I'm not surprised at all. I just thought they would wait until the Day 2

If the model trends continue to have Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Northern & NE Texas (And if it also trends stronger Storms), an Enhanced risk may be needed on Day 2.

I don't see a Moderate unless the Models go absolutely crazy & stay that way.

[ElectricStorm]

A high number of models were consistent for Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Texas Wednesday, that's the main reason why they updated the Day 3 outlook. Here's the updated discussion:

The Day 3/Wednesday convective outlook has been adjusted for
increasing confidence in severe thunderstorm potential further to
the north and west across parts of TX/OK. Over the last few cycles,
forecast guidance has trended toward the north/west with
thunderstorm development. A surface low is forecast to develop
eastward across the TX Panhandle into western OK Wednesday evening.
At 00z, a dryline is expected to extend south/southwest across
western OK into southwest TX, while a cold front extends from
northwest OK into southeast KS/northwest MO. Boundary-layer moisture
will be somewhat marginal (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) along the
surface boundaries, however steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values as high as 500-750 J/kg. Modestly warm temperatures
around 850 mb will likely maintain elevated convection, especially
given northeast storm motion and cells becoming undercut by the
south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, forecast
hodographs indicated enlarged low-level hodographs below 3 km, with
long, straight hodographs above 3 km, indicative of rotating storms
capable of severe hail. A low-level jet will increase during the
evening/overnight hours with strong winds indicated below 1 km,
which may aid in strong gusts despite the somewhat elevated nature
of convection.

Yeah I'm not surprised at all. I just thought they would wait until the Day 2

If the model trends continue to have Severe Storms for Oklahoma & Northern & NE Texas (And if it also trends stronger Storms), an Enhanced risk may be needed on Day 2.

I don't see a Moderate unless the Models go absolutely crazy & stay that way.

I could definitely see an enhanced, especially for hail, and maybe wind. Not sure how high the tornado threat is since that cold front will be undercutting the storms. It all depends how quickly the front moves through.

[ElectricStorm]

We'll talk more about this later after the first system comes through. But this would be crazy moisture for Feb.
I've also never been in a severe weather event on this particular date, not even a marginal risk so this would be a first if this were to somehow verify...

[Iceresistance]

The SPC has a 5% Tornado threat for this storm system, it appears that the tornado threat is along & south of I-40.