Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

Ahhh yeah! But seriously, if we can get the MJO to propagate into P6/7 then I think we could see a winter wx event in early March. That is a pretty good phase space for a weakening Nina.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022021418/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

If the 18z GFS plays out y'all can have at it. That'll be more than enough snow for me this year lol. The 10 inches (for 10-1, 16 inches for Kuchera) would be enough to put us above average this year lol.

You also got absolutely NAMed on the 18z NAM.

[Quixotic]

Winter ain’t done yet per the euro

Yeah end of Euro looks like an ice storm and maybe flurries behind it for metroplex folks. Looks a hell of a lot like the storm we had at the start of the month.

Flashes of Feb 2003 for those old enough to remember.

Worst sleet storm I ever saw 3-5” area wide.

[TheProfessor]

GFS is still putting out stupid snow lol, even on 10 to 1. I wouldn't be surprised if this storm ends up stronger and further NW than what's being shown. In this setup there is no monster 1050 high to suppress the pattern. It's all dependent on the strength of the trough and that first energy kicking into negative-tilt in time. Kinda think we may be sleet or freezing rain here. As long as I'm not on either dry side (looks like a nasty dry slot could happen). I'll be happy.

[Haris]

FWIW its now 2 consec. euro runs!

[DallasAg]

Yeah end of Euro looks like an ice storm and maybe flurries behind it for metroplex folks. Looks a hell of a lot like the storm we had at the start of the month.

Flashes of Feb 2003 for those old enough to remember.

Worst sleet storm I ever saw 3-5” area wide.

And to add insult to injury we got a nice coating of freezing drizzle about 24 hours later. Even though I don't recall the term "cobblestone ice" being used, it was out there. Very messy.

[orangeblood]

FWIW its now 2 consec. euro runs!

CMC has it too...interesting setup for next week. Euro hangs much more energy back and is stronger with HP (1045+) while GFS much weaker. However, latest 06Z GFS is starting to hang much energy back across the SW. BEAR WATCH

[Iceresistance]

The SPC has a 5% tornado threat for the entire DFW metro Tomorrow. Be prepared!

(Slight Risk map)

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/TX_swody2.png

[HockeyTx82]

The SPC has a 5% tornado threat for the entire DFW metro Tomorrow. Be prepared!

(Slight Risk map)
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/TX_swody2.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/TX_swody2.png

It's Texas...... we got this.

All joking aside we just need the rain and nothing more.

[orangeblood]

Ahhh yeah! But seriously, if we can get the MJO to propagate into P6/7 then I think we could see a winter wx event in early March. That is a pretty good phase space for a weakening Nina.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022021418/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

This ENSO 1.2 Region is huge news right now...this is record cold for that region of the Pacific and would think is going to have major implications for the US over the next few months

[Iceresistance]

Ahhh yeah! But seriously, if we can get the MJO to propagate into P6/7 then I think we could see a winter wx event in early March. That is a pretty good phase space for a weakening Nina.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022021418/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

This ENSO 1.2 Region is huge news right now...this is record cold for that region of the Pacific and would think is going to have major implications for the US over the next few months

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/compday_srZbB_h3PQ.gif

More Weather action for snow & eventually storms?

[TropicalTundra]

FWIW its now 2 consec. euro runs!

CMC has it too...interesting setup for next week. Euro hangs much more energy back and is stronger with HP (1045+) while GFS much weaker. However, latest 06Z GFS is starting to hang much energy back across the SW. BEAR WATCH

Definitely some form of winter weather signal there... Now we wait for the ICON and other models to start latching on. Hopefully ICON does just as good as it did 2 weeks ago.

[orangeblood]

FWIW its now 2 consec. euro runs!

CMC has it too...interesting setup for next week. Euro hangs much more energy back and is stronger with HP (1045+) while GFS much weaker. However, latest 06Z GFS is starting to hang much energy back across the SW. BEAR WATCH

Definitely some form of winter weather signal there... Now we wait for the ICON and other models to start latching on. Hopefully ICON does just as good as it did last week.

For what seems like the first time in awhile, the GFS appears to be trending towards the Euro solution for next week...much stronger with the Canadian HP, now 1050+ as it crosses the border and hanging more energy back

Potential for a major overrunning ice event if the models are underestimating cold air push

[txtwister78]

Look at the CMC (other globals similar) bringing the heat early next week.

[txtwister78]

Good news for DFW but as expected, SPC catching up with latest model trends and adjusting the 5% tornado threat just north of the region in the afternoon update. Overall, continue to believe this won't be as big of a threat as what models had shown just a few days ago (very little instability in place), but of course it only takes one tornado in someone's neighborhood for it to be a "big event" for them so obviously still an event that needs to be monitored closely tomorrow.

[txtwister78]

My reaction as I'm watching the 12z Euro come in.....

"Does this mean folks on the forum like the Euro again" Lol!

[TropicalTundra]

My reaction as I'm watching the 12z Euro come in.....

"Does this mean folks on the forum like the Euro again" Lol!

Looks like maybe some glazing mid-day Wednesday then real ice on Late thursday- Early friday

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro....yikes, particularly with its warm bias!!!



GFS is starting to trend south as well. Axis is more or less in similar locations. 5H not far off either

[South Texas Storms]

Pattern next week screams ice storm across the Southern Plains. No thanks from me. I'll happily take a cold rain over that.

[Haris]

That’s the conservative euro mind you …. I’m intrigued

[orangeblood]

Pattern next week screams ice storm across the Southern Plains. No thanks from me. I'll happily take a cold rain over that.

Yes it is! And Ensembles now going with another Arctic Outbreak across US to end Feb, Week 2 looks really cold!!



With deep snow cover to our North, this has serious potential!