Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Quixotic]

PL please. No FZRA.

[rwfromkansas]

Ahhh yeah! But seriously, if we can get the MJO to propagate into P6/7 then I think we could see a winter wx event in early March. That is a pretty good phase space for a weakening Nina.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022021418/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

This ENSO 1.2 Region is huge news right now...this is record cold for that region of the Pacific and would think is going to have major implications for the US over the next few months

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/compday_srZbB_h3PQ.gif

I thought La Nina was dying?

[Iceresistance]

Ahhh yeah! But seriously, if we can get the MJO to propagate into P6/7 then I think we could see a winter wx event in early March. That is a pretty good phase space for a weakening Nina.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022021418/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

This ENSO 1.2 Region is huge news right now...this is record cold for that region of the Pacific and would think is going to have major implications for the US over the next few months

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/compday_srZbB_h3PQ.gif

I thought La Nina was dying?

No, it never died, it just came back with a vengeance.

[orangeblood]

Ahhh yeah! But seriously, if we can get the MJO to propagate into P6/7 then I think we could see a winter wx event in early March. That is a pretty good phase space for a weakening Nina.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022021418/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

This ENSO 1.2 Region is huge news right now...this is record cold for that region of the Pacific and would think is going to have major implications for the US over the next few months

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/compday_srZbB_h3PQ.gif

I thought La Nina was dying?

dying in 3.4 but east is still going really strong. Here is the change over past 2 months. This is surface skin though so not sure what deeper layers look like

[txtwister78]

Pattern next week screams ice storm across the Southern Plains. No thanks from me. I'll happily take a cold rain over that.

Agreed...ice just plain sucks all around. -EPO definitely showing itself though. MJO perhaps hanging around longer in phase 3.

But hey I'm loving the "King Euro" vibes on here again while we wait on the what .... the GFS? How can that be?

[Brent]

I'm gonna have to pass on the freezing rain

[Quixotic]

Enso regions 1+2 are pretty shallow and variable.

[DallasAg]

CPC outlooks starting to gravitate toward colder and wetter for most areas west of the Mississippi through the end of the month:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[Brent]

Tulsa already mentioning next week and they are usually pretty conservative

Another strong cold
front is due in by Tuesday, which may set the stage for
potentially significant wintry weather across a larger portion of
the forecast area later next week.

Still not totally ruled out we could get a little snow Thursday up here

[Golf7270]

I'm gonna have to pass on the freezing rain

I'm concerned for your area Brent. Especially if models are underestimating the cold air and snowpack as well.

[Iceresistance]

Tulsa already mentioning next week and they are usually pretty conservative

Another strong cold
front is due in by Tuesday, which may set the stage for
potentially significant wintry weather across a larger portion of
the forecast area later next week.

Still not totally ruled out we could get a little snow Thursday up here

NWS-Norman has this in their long-range forecast.

A modified arctic airmass and a
deeper upper trough could impact the extended forecast.

[Iceresistance]

The High Pressure area in Southern Canada has trended way stronger on the 18z GFS compared to 12z

[Iceresistance]

That trough (Next Week's system) has a lot of energy . . .


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500_vort_us_28.png

Compared to 12z, the Trough is hanging back even more, but then ejects faster, timing is everything here right now.

[Iceresistance]

There's a fire WSW of me, I'm smelling smoke.

[Iceresistance]

There's a fire WSW of me, I'm smelling smoke.

Fire has been put out, the smoke is gone

[Iceresistance]

What is with the 18z HRRR??

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1493712882835640326

[Ntxw]

MJO forecasts have been shaky since the beginning of 2022. Walker circulation shifted late December out in the WPAC and has been persistent regardless of where the OLR tends to move regarding ENSO. That creates conflicting signals in the rmm charts. East-shifted La Nina is very different than the ones we are used to. Many Ninas of recent memory by this time are west based as warming props up in the eastern basin as it fades, not the case here. This persistence in the WPAC convection has held a steady -WPO -> -EPO transition ridge in the NPAC likely has been influenced by such an east based Nina (instead of cold to the west it is warm to sustain the convection.) The little difference across the Chuckchi/Barents has wildly different outcomes, raise the heights and you get some cold air to move down.

SOI has a lag effect and the recent warmth can be attributed to the SOI rise in late Jan and early Feb. SOI fall now tells us more Nino like late Feb and early March.

[TheProfessor]

Oh boy, that 21z RAP came in strong and hard. 15 inches of snow with blizzard conditions. Probably some ice/sleet before that.

[Iceresistance]

Oh boy, that 21z RAP came in strong and hard. 15 inches of snow with blizzard conditions. Probably some ice/sleet before that.

Spotted a 21 inch marker near Emporia, KS

Also, the 18z HRRR told me (On how it showed) that we (Members of Central Oklahoma) could be in a big surprise Wednesday Night & into Thursday.

[gpsnowman]

Good trends the last couple days. Just want cold and snow please, we had our ice already. Not sure if this is a sign but I have seen dozens of bird flocks of mostly geese flying south in formation the past three days(especially today). We shall see.