Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

Kansas City got Extremely NAMed on the 0z NAM with up to 25 inches of snow! (Kuchera Ratio)

[TheProfessor]

0z HRRR crushed me like the 21z RAP. Will be interesting to see where that snow lines up. RAP and HRRR are entering blizzard territory, but it's still early. Right now I'm liking the positioning of EFI's snow, so the GFS and NAM are probably too far north, but the Euro is too far south. We'll see.

[Iceresistance]

0z HRRR crushed me like the 21z RAP. Will be interesting to see where that snow lines up. RAP and HRRR are entering blizzard territory, but it's still early. Right now I'm liking the positioning of EFI's snow, so the GFS and NAM are probably too far north, but the Euro is too far south. We'll see.

I do get some snow action as well, with up to .5 inch.

The QPF is impressive with the storm, melt the snow, & you will get up to 1.5 inches of liquid.

(Also, the 0z HRRR has up to 55 knots of wind during snow, this could be the first Blizzard in the Southern Plains in a Decade)

[Iceresistance]

0z FV3 High-Res has a well defined Squall line for Oklahoma & Northern Texas, then snow along & North of I-40 & I-44.

Blizzard Conditions are possible in Kansas, 10:1 Ratios are up to 18 inches just north of Wichita.

[rwfromkansas]

Some of those snow model amounts up north are nuts. The most I saw in 22 years in Kansas was 14 inches.

Hopefully we see some thunder tomorrow. And while I would like some snow, no ice. Got deadlines looming and can’t have school out for days.

[Iceresistance]

Some of those snow model amounts up north are nuts. The most I saw in 22 years in Kansas was 14 inches.

Hopefully we see some thunder tomorrow. And while I would like some snow, no ice. Got deadlines looming and can’t have school out for days.

Ice does appear unlikely for Northern Texas with the current system, the HRRR tried to have flurries in Northern Texas for Thursday, but that has gone away for now.

[Iceresistance]

0z GEFS has 13 inches of snow ENE of Wichita, KS, & that's only the 10:1 Ratio.

[TheProfessor]

0z GEFS has 13 inches of snow ENE of Wichita, KS, & that's only the 10:1 Ratio.

18z GEFS snow mean was 8.29" here. Will be interesting to see how the 0z run compares. 3z RAP has us mix a bit longer, but still has just under 15" of snow 10:1 and 18" on Kuchera plus blizzard conditions.

[Haris]

Cold getting more intense on GEFS tonight and lots of ice showing up on individual ens

[wxman57]

6Z GFS has a significant ice storm across Texas, even down to Brownsville at the end of the month into early March! Everyone needs to get excited about it, as it's sure to happen.

[Iceresistance]

I'm expecting Severe Storms Tomorrow Morning, then Snow Tomorrow afternoon? That's sounds Illegal . . .

[txtwister78]

I'm expecting Severe Storms Tomorrow Morning, then Snow Tomorrow afternoon? That's sounds Illegal . . .

Based on trends the storms look good for your area, but I wouldn't bank on snow just yet.... all depends on the track of the low. Right now, it appears southern, parts of central and NE Oklahoma could get dry slotted after the storms move through as a result of the NE track. Best odds look like western and northern Oklahoma (at least from what I see). But you never know real time as a minor adjustment south of the track could put more of central Oklahoma in play for some wrap around snow. Suprise snow is the best snow so hopefully you cash in on something but doesn't look like central Oklahoma is in play for much if anything as it stands now.

[orangeblood]

Now in ICON range and sure enough, the ingredients are on the field for an Ice Storm across portions of Texas next Wednesday/Thursday. Much colder than other Globals

[txtwister78]

GFS still has other ideas for next wk and brings a glancing blow of cold air down from the plains (with a big SE ridge holding firm) but definitely not the 1050 HP type that just overwhelms the pattern as the Euro (I think we're calling it king again for now) has shown. The last few runs however of the GEFS have been colder than the operational though to be fair so still a wait and see for several days before anyone can say with confidence this pattern is a lock for winter precip/deep cold into TX in my opinion.

[orangeblood]

GFS still has other ideas for next wk and brings a glancing blow of cold air down from the plains (with a big SE ridge holding firm) but definitely not the 1050 HP type that just overwhelms the pattern as the Euro (I think we're calling it king again for now) has shown. The last few runs however of the GEFS have been colder than the operational though to be fair so still a wait and see for several days before anyone can say with confidence this pattern is a lock for winter precip/deep cold into TX in my opinion.

But if you recall from a couple of weeks ago, these model output patterns look quite similar....GFS and/or Euro pick up in long range, drop for a few days while ICON takes lead once in range. Then other Globals revert back/play catch up

Just something I've noticed over the past 2 decades following these models closely....there seems to be a particularly odd model pattern that develops every winter season and this one could be one of them this time around

[losf1981]

GFS still has other ideas for next wk and brings a glancing blow of cold air down from the plains (with a big SE ridge holding firm) but definitely not the 1050 HP type that just overwhelms the pattern as the Euro (I think we're calling it king again for now) has shown. The last few runs however of the GEFS have been colder than the operational though to be fair so still a wait and see for several days before anyone can say with confidence this pattern is a lock for winter precip/deep cold into TX in my opinion.

I don't know if I can handle the swings! Excited about the potential and following this forum is always fun.

[Haris]

Canadian just got colder now. Lots of shallow air

[orangeblood]

Canadian just got colder now. Lots of shallow air

With a 1045+ HP this time of year and fresh snow cover like this over next week, wouldn't expect much in the way of modification/likely models are way underestimating shallow arctic cold AGAIN!

[txtwister78]

GFS still has other ideas for next wk and brings a glancing blow of cold air down from the plains (with a big SE ridge holding firm) but definitely not the 1050 HP type that just overwhelms the pattern as the Euro (I think we're calling it king again for now) has shown. The last few runs however of the GEFS have been colder than the operational though to be fair so still a wait and see for several days before anyone can say with confidence this pattern is a lock for winter precip/deep cold into TX in my opinion.

But if you recall from a couple of weeks ago, these model output patterns look quite similar....GFS and/or Euro pick up in long range, drop for a few days while ICON takes lead once in range. Then other Globals revert back/play catch up

Just something I've noticed over the past 2 decades following these models closely....there seems to be a particularly odd model pattern that develops every winter season and this one could be one of them this time around

Oh don't get me wrong I see the "potential" with the overall signals, but I just don't think we're at a point where we can lock anything in just yet, but no question it bears watch. How much cold air comes down into the plains is not something we're going to know for several days is all and naturally that's going to modify some as it moves south (depending on the strength of the HP).

As I'm typing this, the GEFS now has a 1042HP building so definitely a sign if it holds that would point to a reversal from the operational. No question that the signals appear to be pointing to a much more active and below normal temp pattern next week and beyond going into March and that's not something we had on the table a week ago so a lot to watch no doubt.

[wxman22]

12Z Canadian