Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Solid snowstorm expected here in the the foothills of Denver today. Hopefully it lays enough snow cover down into the plains, to reduce the modification of cooler air coming down. That ice storm next week has my attention for sure.

[orangeblood]

Trending colder/further south

[DallasAg]

Solid snowstorm expected here in the the foothills of Denver today. Hopefully it lays enough snow cover down into the plains, to reduce the modification of cooler air coming down. That ice storm next week has my attention for sure.

We're getting a little bit up here in Crested Butte today. After we got over 5 feet between Christmas and New Years we've had very little since. Most of it has been on the front range, which they obviously need the moisture. The snow up here was really starting to get crusty and gross, so getting a little on top is helping. Looks like a bigger opportunity for the mountains starting on Sunday night or Monday. Everybody wins!

[orangeblood]

Solid snowstorm expected here in the the foothills of Denver today. Hopefully it lays enough snow cover down into the plains, to reduce the modification of cooler air coming down. That ice storm next week has my attention for sure.

We're getting a little bit up here in Crested Butte today. After we got over 5 feet between Christmas and New Years we've had very little since. Most of it has been on the front range, which they obviously need the moisture. The snow up here was really starting to get crusty and gross, so getting a little on top is helping. Looks like a bigger opportunity for the mountains starting on Sunday night or Monday. Everybody wins!

Looks like that’s about to change, good cold/snowy pattern for the Rockies coming up over the next few weeks

[EnnisTx]

Trending colder/further south

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645012800/1645617600-AU8jPu9E5SY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1645012800/1645704000-AITtKWHwxIU.png

NWS FWD is mentioning it, but still to far out.

The shortwave and its attendant surface cyclone will eject
northeast through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday as the larger scale
trough continues to deepen to our west. A cold front will extend
southwest through the Plains from the aforementioned surface low,
and the evolving upper air pattern will give the cold front a
southward push through North and Central Texas around the middle
of next week. The post-frontal airmass will contain modified
arctic air, which should send temperatures plummeting to near or
below freezing by late next Wednesday or next Thursday.

Meanwhile, the upper trough off to our west will produce a broad
swath of isentropic ascent above the cold frontal layer, which
would likely lead to cold rain over much of the region and
possibly a wintry mix at some point for the northwestern zones. It
is still far too soon to speculate on just how cold and how much
precipitation will fall while it is near or below freezing, but I
felt that a rain/sleet mix was a necessary addition for the far
northwest zones (with no significant accumulations) starting
around a week from now. That said, this is still on the day 8
portion of the forecast where much uncertainty still exists, and
it will still be a few more days until better resolution guidance
is received and more details become known.

[Cpv17]

Trending colder/further south

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645012800/1645617600-AU8jPu9E5SY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1645012800/1645704000-AITtKWHwxIU.png

NWS FWD is mentioning it, but still to far out.

The shortwave and its attendant surface cyclone will eject
northeast through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday as the larger scale
trough continues to deepen to our west. A cold front will extend
southwest through the Plains from the aforementioned surface low,
and the evolving upper air pattern will give the cold front a
southward push through North and Central Texas around the middle
of next week. The post-frontal airmass will contain modified
arctic air, which should send temperatures plummeting to near or
below freezing by late next Wednesday or next Thursday.

Meanwhile, the upper trough off to our west will produce a broad
swath of isentropic ascent above the cold frontal layer, which
would likely lead to cold rain over much of the region and
possibly a wintry mix at some point for the northwestern zones. It
is still far too soon to speculate on just how cold and how much
precipitation will fall while it is near or below freezing, but I
felt that a rain/sleet mix was a necessary addition for the far
northwest zones (with no significant accumulations) starting
around a week from now. That said, this is still on the day 8
portion of the forecast where much uncertainty still exists, and
it will still be a few more days until better resolution guidance
is received and more details become known.

Is it really that far out though? I mean it’s inside a week. And the Euro is a no go. 57’s best friend (the SE ridge) holds up the cold air.

[Haris]

Trending colder/further south

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645012800/1645617600-AU8jPu9E5SY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1645012800/1645704000-AITtKWHwxIU.png

NWS FWD is mentioning it, but still to far out.

The shortwave and its attendant surface cyclone will eject
northeast through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday as the larger scale
trough continues to deepen to our west. A cold front will extend
southwest through the Plains from the aforementioned surface low,
and the evolving upper air pattern will give the cold front a
southward push through North and Central Texas around the middle
of next week. The post-frontal airmass will contain modified
arctic air, which should send temperatures plummeting to near or
below freezing by late next Wednesday or next Thursday.

Meanwhile, the upper trough off to our west will produce a broad
swath of isentropic ascent above the cold frontal layer, which
would likely lead to cold rain over much of the region and
possibly a wintry mix at some point for the northwestern zones. It
is still far too soon to speculate on just how cold and how much
precipitation will fall while it is near or below freezing, but I
felt that a rain/sleet mix was a necessary addition for the far
northwest zones (with no significant accumulations) starting
around a week from now. That said, this is still on the day 8
portion of the forecast where much uncertainty still exists, and
it will still be a few more days until better resolution guidance
is received and more details become known.

Is it really that far out though? I mean it’s inside a week. And the Euro is a no go. 57’s best friend (the SE ridge) holds up the cold air.

No I agree with NWS. The broad pieces are there but the timing, the moisture content, etc... is really in flux still. Any even small changes in the upper air pattern could really change surface precip and coverage, as well as precip types.

[Cpv17]

57 isn’t gonna like this



That should get some people talking.

[Brent]

57 isn’t gonna like this

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

That should get some people talking.

Yeah I thought winter was ending

Near blIzzard conditions not far from here tomorrow either

[Iceresistance]

57 isn’t gonna like this

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

That should get some people talking.

Yeah I thought winter was ending

Near blIzzard conditions not far from here tomorrow either

So did my 4th Hour Teacher, she does not want to see any of this!

[HockeyTx82]

We need that clip from Space Balls of the alien popping out of the guys stomach and he says. "Oh no, not again" but have it photoshopped with model map......

I'm reaching here aren't I?

[Brent]

Winter Storm Warning one county away here tomorrow

Gonna be close forecast says maybe an inch or two here

[Iceresistance]

Winter Storm Warning one county away here tomorrow

Gonna be close forecast says maybe an inch or two here

There is a chance that we could be in a Surprise with this system.

[Brent]

Winter Storm Warning one county away here tomorrow

Gonna be close forecast says maybe an inch or two here

There is a chance that we could be in a Surprise with this system.

I wouldn't be surprised tbh... It's been very close all along. If it busts its definitely busting high

[Ntxw]

57 isn’t gonna like this

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

That should get some people talking.

Yeah I thought winter was ending

Near blIzzard conditions not far from here tomorrow either

Can't trust models 2 weeks out right, for cold or warmth . Even the best of us fall in the same trap on either end!

[Brent]

57 isn’t gonna like this

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

That should get some people talking.

Yeah I thought winter was ending

Near blIzzard conditions not far from here tomorrow either

Can't trust models 2 weeks out right, for cold or warmth . Even the best of us fall in the same trap on either end!

Oh for sure I just had to make a comment I've been there before too

[Golf7270]

I think we can just about write off any winter weather next week for most. Models are too consistent on keeping the real cold from advancing east, especially for no ice storm. Especially the op runs. I will say the ensembles are still cold in that timeframe so I guess we shall see

[losf1981]

I think we can just about write off any winter weather next week for most. Models are too consistent on keeping the real cold from advancing east, especially for no ice storm. Especially the op runs. I will say the ensembles are still cold in that timeframe so I guess we shall see

well this is a kick in the peaches......

[Brent]

I think we can just about write off any winter weather next week for most. Models are too consistent on keeping the real cold from advancing east, especially for no ice storm. Especially the op runs. I will say the ensembles are still cold in that timeframe so I guess we shall see

well this is a kick in the peaches......

To be fair it's probably ice. Tulsa still mentioning messy weather possible which doesn't sound like straight snow anyway even up here

[cheezyWXguy]

I think we can just about write off any winter weather next week for most. Models are too consistent on keeping the real cold from advancing east, especially for no ice storm. Especially the op runs. I will say the ensembles are still cold in that timeframe so I guess we shall see

Who is most? If you’re talking about southeast Texas and Louisiana I agree, but areas north of there have a risk that can’t really be discounted yet.