SIO: EMANATI - Extratropical

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SIO: EMANATI - Extratropical

#1 Postby zzh » Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:57 pm

96S INVEST 220212 0000 10.8S 85.5E SHEM 15 0
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Re: SIO: INVEST 96S

#2 Postby aspen » Wed Feb 16, 2022 5:02 pm

I’m surprised 96S — now TC13 — hasn’t been getting much attention. Models have been consistent about a potential Cat 3/4 threat to Madagascar and neighboring islands, and the first JTWC forecast cone has an aggressive 95 kt forecast peak. Odds are good that this becomes another land-threatening major like Batsirai.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 96S

#3 Postby alan1961 » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:33 pm

Image

This looks to take a similar track to Batsirai.

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Re: SIO: INVEST 96S

#4 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:51 pm

WTH?! A cyclone is the last thing Madagascar needs right now.
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 16, 2022 8:16 pm

 https://twitter.com/ForceThirteen/status/1494117446868869124


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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 17, 2022 8:28 am

This one will be very strong when it makes landfall in Madagascar.

Image

Image
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:51 pm

The latest JTWC forecast has it weakening due to upwelling from Batsirai.
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Feb 17, 2022 4:03 pm

TPXS11 PGTW 175458

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE (EMNATI)

B. 17/1730Z

C. 13.70S

D. 63.68E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO EXTRAP/ANMTN. CCC TECHNIQUE YIELDS A DT OF 3.5.

MET AND PT AGREES. DBO DT.



ABRAHAM



Wrong scene type, correct FT.
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Feb 17, 2022 4:20 pm

Image

Only 45 knots apparently.
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#10 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:44 am

I expect an eye at around 12 hours from now. It is shrimpy. The wind shear is decreasing and emanati is organizing.
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#11 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:46 am

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 171718.gif
Image
Maybe even sooner than 12 hours.
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Feb 18, 2022 1:00 am

Image

Likely a hurricane now. With shear out of the way, door wide open for another fairly long tracked and intense hurricane as it nears Madagascar. Ceiling probably higher than Batsirai as long as it avoids the upwelled region.
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Feb 18, 2022 10:02 am

I was looking at an old satellite photo. But yeah really looks good.
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 18, 2022 10:14 am

Image
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 19, 2022 9:08 am

 https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/1494962261508689922


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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 19, 2022 11:03 am

Some dry air around.

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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 19, 2022 1:30 pm

Looks like dry air and an EWRC stalled Emanati’s intensification, but an eye is starting to appear on IR imagery surrounded by -70C and colder convection. It might be starting RI now. Hopefully something else comes up to cause it to weaken before landfall.
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby Hurricane2021 » Sat Feb 19, 2022 6:47 pm

https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1 ... 7089282457
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#19 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 19, 2022 7:07 pm

Hurricane2021 wrote:https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/149517717089282457



 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/149517717089282457




You can use the "[Tweet][/Tweet]" function to see what the Tweet says. I fixed it for you ;)


EDIT: Of course he deleted the Tweet!
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Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#20 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 19, 2022 7:17 pm

Based on what I'm seeing on Satellite, Emanati has a full eye & it's possibly a Pinhole, only time will tell if it's a true Pinhole, or it's in the process of clearing the eye completely.
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