Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TropicalTundra]

UKMET is looking pretty good for the first run in range....

[Iceresistance]

Larry Cosgrove on FB: “ Next week will be tough. All of the elements that make for a crazed weather forecast will be in play, starting on President's Day and lasting until the end of the month.

By now you have heard about the mammoth cold intrusion from Siberia, which will ooze out of Canada this weekend, then make a mad dash for the Gulf Coast and Mexican border. The formation of an Alaska/Yukon block starts to take shape next Wednesday and Thursday, creating a cross-polar flow aloft that will take a regime from Siberia into the lower 48 states. Also helping in this process is a broad, neutral-tilt, full-latitude trough at 500MB, spawning low pressure in the Texas Panhandle. It looks like that cyclone will be big wind producer as it tracks through New York State and then into New Brunswick by February 27.

But it is the precipitation array that draws your attention. Severe thunderstorm and torrential rainfall in parts of Dixie; heavy snow from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley; and the potential threat for a freezing rain/sleet event from N TX into middle and upper Appalachia.

Now add onto this mess the ongoing high wind potential, Arctic air mass, and the weakening of the protective heat ridge in Florida and the Bahamas. That action leaves the door open for yet another storm to impact Texas, the Deep South, and the Eastern Seaboard. With the blocking ridge at its strongest in the first week of next month, it is unlikely that any serious moderation will get underway in the lower 48 states before March 10.

Have a nice holiday weekend, everyone!”

Oh boy, does this mean a long-term Winter Weather outbreak sequence until Mid-March?

[Ntxw]

Larry Cosgrove on FB: “ Next week will be tough. All of the elements that make for a crazed weather forecast will be in play, starting on President's Day and lasting until the end of the month.

By now you have heard about the mammoth cold intrusion from Siberia, which will ooze out of Canada this weekend, then make a mad dash for the Gulf Coast and Mexican border. The formation of an Alaska/Yukon block starts to take shape next Wednesday and Thursday, creating a cross-polar flow aloft that will take a regime from Siberia into the lower 48 states. Also helping in this process is a broad, neutral-tilt, full-latitude trough at 500MB, spawning low pressure in the Texas Panhandle. It looks like that cyclone will be big wind producer as it tracks through New York State and then into New Brunswick by February 27.

But it is the precipitation array that draws your attention. Severe thunderstorm and torrential rainfall in parts of Dixie; heavy snow from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley; and the potential threat for a freezing rain/sleet event from N TX into middle and upper Appalachia.

Now add onto this mess the ongoing high wind potential, Arctic air mass, and the weakening of the protective heat ridge in Florida and the Bahamas. That action leaves the door open for yet another storm to impact Texas, the Deep South, and the Eastern Seaboard. With the blocking ridge at its strongest in the first week of next month, it is unlikely that any serious moderation will get underway in the lower 48 states before March 10.

Have a nice holiday weekend, everyone!”

Oh boy, does this mean a long-term Winter Weather outbreak sequence until Mid-March?

Both GEFS and EPS surges more blocking into AK. Cold snaps will have reinforcements through 1st week of March. -EPO.

[Iceresistance]

Larry Cosgrove on FB: “ Next week will be tough. All of the elements that make for a crazed weather forecast will be in play, starting on President's Day and lasting until the end of the month.

By now you have heard about the mammoth cold intrusion from Siberia, which will ooze out of Canada this weekend, then make a mad dash for the Gulf Coast and Mexican border. The formation of an Alaska/Yukon block starts to take shape next Wednesday and Thursday, creating a cross-polar flow aloft that will take a regime from Siberia into the lower 48 states. Also helping in this process is a broad, neutral-tilt, full-latitude trough at 500MB, spawning low pressure in the Texas Panhandle. It looks like that cyclone will be big wind producer as it tracks through New York State and then into New Brunswick by February 27.

But it is the precipitation array that draws your attention. Severe thunderstorm and torrential rainfall in parts of Dixie; heavy snow from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley; and the potential threat for a freezing rain/sleet event from N TX into middle and upper Appalachia.

Now add onto this mess the ongoing high wind potential, Arctic air mass, and the weakening of the protective heat ridge in Florida and the Bahamas. That action leaves the door open for yet another storm to impact Texas, the Deep South, and the Eastern Seaboard. With the blocking ridge at its strongest in the first week of next month, it is unlikely that any serious moderation will get underway in the lower 48 states before March 10.

Have a nice holiday weekend, everyone!”

Oh boy, does this mean a long-term Winter Weather outbreak sequence until Mid-March?

Both GEFS and EPS surges more blocking into AK. Cold snaps will have reinforcements through 1st week of March. -EPO.

Could this lead to a more active & dangerous Spring Storm Season since there's more cold air in place behind the warm, moist air come March-May?

[cheezyWXguy]

Oh boy, does this mean a long-term Winter Weather outbreak sequence until Mid-March?

Both GEFS and EPS surges more blocking into AK. Cold snaps will have reinforcements through 1st week of March. -EPO.

Could this lead to a more active & dangerous Spring Storm Season since there's more cold air in place behind the warm, moist air come March-May?

Depends. More of these storms coming through likely means more precip in the drought ridden areas out west which would help reduce the strength of the cap. But if these fronts continue to push through into the gulf, they’ll keep gulf sst’s cooler reducing available instability in the southern plains

[txtwister78]

Imagine if we had a negative AO to go with that negative EPO. But yes, as long as that ridge remains anchored up into western Canada and Alaska, we should be in for an active pattern with temps below normal relative to averages which does get a little more important as we move into March in terms of just how "cold" things can actually get. What a switch from a week ago though when signs were pointing to winter being over.

[Iceresistance]

Imagine if we had a negative AO to go with that negative EPO. But yes, as long as that ridge remains anchored up into western Canada and Alaska, we should be in for an active pattern with temps below normal relative to averages which does get a little more important as we move into March in terms of just how "cold" things can actually get. What a switch from a week ago though when signs were pointing to winter being over.

The NAO is refusing to go Negative, that may had many people thinking last week that winter was going to end. But no, there is the WPO, & I've heard it's Negative. Which is defeating the +NAO.

[txtwister78]

Imagine if we had a negative AO to go with that negative EPO. But yes, as long as that ridge remains anchored up into western Canada and Alaska, we should be in for an active pattern with temps below normal relative to averages which does get a little more important as we move into March in terms of just how "cold" things can actually get. What a switch from a week ago though when signs were pointing to winter being over.

The NAO is refusing to go Negative, that may had many people thinking last week that winter was going to end. But no, there is the WPO, & I've heard it's Negative. Which is defeating the +NAO.

The EPO tends to be a little more important this late into the winter for our region but having both AO and NAO positive still gives me some pause about the sustainability of the cold. Having a positive AO tends to flood the country with westerlies (flatter jet) and the cold remains bottled, but with the EPO being negative (the western ridge pumped into Alaska and western Cananda), you drain that Siberian air south down the plains, but it doesn't overwhelm the entire pattern across the country and lock in. I think we get shots of cold but with faster recovery temp wise.

[Iceresistance]

I'm expecting a brief torch early next week, expecting a high of 75°F next Monday, but next Tuesday's high is only 45°F.

(Note: The Temperature forecasts came from a TV station.)

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing I wish the models were showing that I’m not seeing is a more amplified ejection over Texas and Oklahoma. The system really flattens out once it crosses out of New Mexico. If the trough stays more amplified or digs a bit further south, then we could probably get enough cooling aloft to entertain a transition to snow at some point south of the red river and shift the accumulation focus closer to north Texas and the eastern half of Oklahoma. Not seeing it at this point.

[Brent]

I'm expecting a brief torch early next week, expecting a high of 75°F next Monday, but next Tuesday's high is only 45°F.

(Note: The Temperature forecasts came from a TV station.)

TWC has 78 here Monday then a snowstorm Wednesday. Not much ice

[Iceresistance]

I'm expecting a brief torch early next week, expecting a high of 75°F next Monday, but next Tuesday's high is only 45°F.

(Note: The Temperature forecasts came from a TV station.)

TWC has 78 here Monday then a snowstorm Wednesday. Not much ice

I'm wondering when the TWC will try to pop 80°F on their App on Next Monday.

[Iceresistance]

The Trough is hanging back way more on 12z GFS compared to 6z.

(I think I made the speed on the GIF too fast. )


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_us_fh132_trend.gif

[Haris]

12z gfs is ugly dry. Not sure why

[cheezyWXguy]

12z gfs is ugly dry. Not sure why

I think it’s because the trough is more positively tilted this run. Also, despite driving a 1049mb high into South Dakota, it’s the warmest run yet. I would guess it’s struggling with the surface depiction associated with a comparatively slower trough and a shallow airmass. We are getting into that range where the models “lose” it

[Haris]

12z gfs is ugly dry. Not sure why

I think it’s because the trough is more positively tilted this run. Also, despite driving a 1049mb high into South Dakota, it’s the warmest run yet. I would guess it’s struggling with the surface depiction associated with a comparatively slower trough and a shallow airmass. We are getting into that range where the models “lose” it

Yeah I’m not even looking at temps on these models. Agreed re. positive tilt. That low has been jumping so much the last few runs so it can easily change to a more favorable position. Still peculiar though. We shall see

[HockeyTx82]

12z gfs is ugly dry. Not sure why

I think it’s because the trough is more positively tilted this run. Also, despite driving a 1049mb high into South Dakota, it’s the warmest run yet. I would guess it’s struggling with the surface depiction associated with a comparatively slower trough and a shallow airmass. We are getting into that range where the models “lose” it

We are getting into that range where the models and people
on this board “lose” it....

Fixed it for you.

[losf1981]

12z gfs is ugly dry. Not sure why

I think it’s because the trough is more positively tilted this run. Also, despite driving a 1049mb high into South Dakota, it’s the warmest run yet. I would guess it’s struggling with the surface depiction associated with a comparatively slower trough and a shallow airmass. We are getting into that range where the models “lose” it

We are getting into that range where the models and people
on this board “lose” it....

Fixed it for you.

not losing it.....just trying to "prepare"

[Iceresistance]

The 12z GEFS has trended warmer compared to 6z, I believe this is where the models get really confused with the storm syetem, I've been thinking that we're reaching the barrier area until the models are 100% sure on the storm system, which is 2-3 days out.

[Texas Snow]

DFW/North Texas (Friday 2/18/22 at 11 am)
...Quick forecast update...
...Rain possible in N TX midweek...

For now, I am only forecasting cold rain midweek. Rain is even questionable at this point. No winter storm as best I can tell. No ice. No snow. This is why I prefer to wait before I jump off the deep end. Things can still change (unlikely). Just enjoy the weekend. 80° on Monday.

Please see the forecast that I posted earlier this morning.

Enjoy the weekend.

—————
Chris Robbins, Meteorologist, M.S., iWeatherNet