Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

The WPC likes to say otherwise compared to the models.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/wpcwxfrontsf120.gif


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/wpcwxfrontsf144.gif

[txtwister78]

The 12z GEFS has trended warmer compared to 6z, I believe this is where the models get really confused with the storm syetem, I've been thinking that we're reaching the barrier area until the models are 100% sure on the storm system, which is 2-3 days out.

All 12z models have essentially moved toward a faster recovery for temps on Thursday (particularly the 12 GEFS) and so unlike the previous event in early February when you had just one model (Euro) essentially throwing in the towel too quickly around this timeframe, this is a bit different in that all models show it to some degree (yes including the ICON). We're still several days out, but a definite change and one that, I think could have some merit all teleconnections considered. Obviously, there will still be some swings and variability to this over the next few days.

Like all things TX weather related though, no sense in ever sounding the alarm too quickly as a lot can and in fact does change as we move closer.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 12z GEFS has trended warmer compared to 6z, I believe this is where the models get really confused with the storm syetem, I've been thinking that we're reaching the barrier area until the models are 100% sure on the storm system, which is 2-3 days out.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645185600/1645736400-F5oQuAufCRA.png

All 12z models have essentially moved toward a faster recovery for temps on Thursday (particularly the 12 GEFS) and so unlike the previous event in early February when you had just one model (Euro) essentially throwing in the towel too quickly around this timeframe, this is a bit different in that all models show it to some degree (yes including the ICON). We're still several days out, but a definite change and one that, I think could have some merit all teleconnections considered. Obviously, there will still be some swings and variability to this over the next few days.

Like all things TX weather related though, no sense in ever sounding the alarm too quickly as a lot can and in fact does change as we move closer.

This is a good point. I’ve noticed the consistency among the models is not of the caliber it was during the last event, even on the icon, which was dead set from nearly a week out back then. This storm could still ultimately play out like the last one, but there are a number of other scenarios on the table this time that many on here would probably consider a bust.

[Ntxw]

I do agree this one isn't a slam dunk like the last one, that one was ridiculously consistent relative to how hard it is to get that here. Still early though just look for the upper features. Worry mode for bust would definitely kick in if it were Tuesday next week. I think by this time of winter expectations lower anyway and if it's not snow we could just accept some chilly rain.

[Haris]

You don’t want to be in the bulls eye this far out most of the time. Euro looks pretty good for you Northerners still. Again we can even afford some air mass modifications as the temp biases upwards of 10F -15F remain on globals. Wait it out.

Edit: the euro sucks but I’m ignoring it for now

[txtwister78]

Yeah the Euro is no longer going to king again (even for the brief moment that it was a few days ago) on here after that run..lol

[TropicalTundra]

Yeah the Euro is no longer going to king again (even for the brief moment that it was a few days ago) on here after that run..lol

UKMET's holding the spotlight for now i'd say. It's shifted farther south and has a bit more cold than the 0z run. Most of the models I looked at had some sort of cold along with rain or winter precip but just in the wrong areas for us. There are still a lot of variables so I'd say wait a day or two and maybe the bipolar models will maybe have a change of mind.

[txtwister78]

Yeah the Euro is no longer going to king again (even for the brief moment that it was a few days ago) on here after that run..lol

UKMET's holding the spotlight for now i'd say. Most of the models I looked at had some sort of cold along with rain or winter precip but just in the wrong areas for us. There are still a lot of variables so I'd say wait a day or two and maybe the bipolar models will maybe have a change of mind.

Yeah but anytime the UKMET is in the spotlight it's typically for a good laugh. I think that one is about as reliable at the stock market and so I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket if I was looking at all models for a trend at least. Despite the 12z model trends today, I think due to the shallow nature of the cold (as we've all seen before), we're probably going to see some trends back in the other direction as we get closer to the middle of next week. I still feel though that this won't be a cold that is locked in for several days, so perhaps one day (two at the most) of cold relative to the averages followed by a faster moderation/recovery is probably more likely just based on where things sit today. More roller coaster type weather that we occasionally see late into the winter and going into March.

In terms of winter precip chances...that's definitely 1–3-day window so no sense in sounding that alarm in my opinion just yet regardless.

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah the Euro is no longer going to king again (even for the brief moment that it was a few days ago) on here after that run..lol

UKMET's holding the spotlight for now i'd say. It's shifted farther south and has a bit more cold than the 0z run. Most of the models I looked at had some sort of cold along with rain or winter precip but just in the wrong areas for us. There are still a lot of variables so I'd say wait a day or two and maybe the bipolar models will maybe have a change of mind.

I don’t think I trust the model of a country that names winter storms.

I would not mind wintry weather, but I can’t afford a long time out of school with deadlines.

[Quixotic]

Think this is a case like 2013-14 where we have a strong -EPO and no -NAO. The cold will come but may be a quick hit 24 - 48 hour thing. The timing is important. It doesn't take much QPF to produce some good results. We had multiple small events, the last being in March. The cold was impressive and difficult to predict this far out.

[Brent]

The WPC likes to say otherwise compared to the models.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/wpcwxfrontsf120.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/wpcwxfrontsf120.gif

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/wpcwxfrontsf144.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/wpcwxfrontsf144.gif

That looks eerily similar to the big storm at the start of the month up here anyway

[bubba hotep]

We are still beyond D5 and the models are jumping around a good bit at H5. Haven't really seen anything I would call a trend in either direction at this point.

[Haris]

We are still beyond D5 and the models are jumping around a good bit at H5. Haven't really seen anything I would call a trend in either direction at this point.

100%. The temp changes are just the reactions to the trough placement. Once that gets agreed upon, then we'll know whatever trend is happening

[txtwister78]

One thing for certain is early next week is going to be blowtorch across parts of the state (RGV and S Central TX in particular)

[Brent]

Tulsa AFD

Local TV met also more concerned about ice

The early week cold front will set the stage for a potential
wintry mess mid to late week across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas. After a brief lull in precipitation
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, the chances of precipitation
increase on Wednesday as a southwesterly flow aloft develops across
the region as a trof rotates into the Rockies. Several rounds of
wintry precipitation are expected across the area with persistent
isentropic lift in place. The precipitation is forecast to come to
end Thursday night as the main upper level shortwave moves east
of the area. It is still too early to pin down precipitation types
and amounts at this time. However, this period of unsettled weather
could bring all modes of winter weather to the area and could
significantly impact the region. The forecast will continue to be
refined as the event draws closer. However, winter weather headlines
will likely be needed for this event.

[Cpv17]

We are still beyond D5 and the models are jumping around a good bit at H5. Haven't really seen anything I would call a trend in either direction at this point.

100%. The temp changes are just the reactions to the trough placement. Once that gets agreed upon, then we'll know whatever trend is happening

I’m not too worried about the temps. It’s going to get cold and probably really cold.

[txtwister78]

NWS Austin/San Antonio has also introduced a chance of freezing rain across the Hill Country & Edwards Plateau region Wed night into early Thursday morning in their latest forecast update this afternoon. Obviously the timing of those impulses/disturbances will be key in correlation to low temps. NWS here still has high temps considerably warmer though both Wed & Thurs than what most models currently indicate (even if runs were a bit warmer today), but with this event still 5 days away, that's not a big surprise either.

"Wednesday night into Thursday morning, another upper short wave is
forecast to push across the Southern Plains creating elevated
convection with temperatures near the freezing mark. Therefore, a
slight to chances of rain and freezing rain have been introduced for
this forecast package for areas across the Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country. So, a wintry mix event is possible with no ice accumulation
expected at this time. There is a hint within the GFS solution of
few upper level disturbances moving across the area along the
southwest flow aloft through Thursday morning with temperatures in
the upper 20s to lower 30s across the Hill Country for additional
episode of rain and freezing rain".

[Lagreeneyes03]

DFW/North Texas (Friday 2/18/22 at 11 am)
...Quick forecast update...
...Rain possible in N TX midweek...

For now, I am only forecasting cold rain midweek. Rain is even questionable at this point. No winter storm as best I can tell. No ice. No snow. This is why I prefer to wait before I jump off the deep end. Things can still change (unlikely). Just enjoy the weekend. 80° on Monday.

Please see the forecast that I posted earlier this morning.

Enjoy the weekend.

—————
Chris Robbins, Meteorologist, M.S., iWeatherNet

I've seen his posts on Facebook-he didn't forecast the last event until it was upon us, he said no snow, ice, winter weather, and mild first week of Feb.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS keeping the hope alive.

Wednesday through the end of the week will feature much colder
temperatures compared to the beginning of the week. The upper
level trough will continue to impact our region as it approaches
mid week. Widespread precipitation chances are expected Wednesday
into Thursday as low level ascent increases. Temperature profiles
support a mix of wintry precipitation during this time frame.
With this event being several days out, it is not surprising that
the ensemble cluster analysis indicates some uncertainty on the
location and timing of the upper level trough, as well as the
strength. I did trend slightly colder than the NBM as ensemble
guidance has trended colder over the past few days, but there is
still uncertainty in regards to the precipitation types and
amounts. At this time, we continue to advertise a wintry mix
across most of the region Wednesday through Thursday. Finally, the
combination of breezy north winds and cold temperatures will yield
wind chills in the single digits across the Big Country to the
teens elsewhere.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1494722414588084231




It's going to be either Scenario 1 or 2