Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Haris]

Ok so it indeed is the tilt that is giving models fits.

GFS 18z is now more neutral to negative again over NM so more moisture now (across N TX & Oklahoma) this run. Good luck nailing that down for now.

Definitely still on the table for a storm next week if everything aligns right. But odds remain low-ish for now until we get closer

[wxman57]

The temporary small hole in my wall has been repaired. I am not concerned about next week. The trend is my friend. I think I'll take Monday & maybe Tuesday off to go biking, as temps here will be in the mid to upper 70s.

[orangeblood]

GEFS continues to trend colder, QPF much lighter but this has nasty longer term freezing drizzle setup written all over it

[Haris]

The temporary small hole in my wall has been repaired. I am not concerned about next week. The trend is my friend. I think I'll take Monday & maybe Tuesday off to go biking, as temps here will be in the mid to upper 70s.

Not so fast

[Iceresistance]

The temporary small hole in my wall has been repaired. I am not concerned about next week. The trend is my friend. I think I'll take Monday & maybe Tuesday off to go biking, as temps here will be in the mid to upper 70s.

Not so fast [url]https://i.ibb.co/hYX0dGS/712-DEA19-8948-4866-B6-C0-C13-FB879147-F.png [/url]

I believe that Heat Miser had a hole in the Houston Wall that leaked some cold air to Houston, it dipped below freezing in Houston within the past 5-7 days.

[Iceresistance]

Alaska is absolutely torching!


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_25.png

[orangeblood]

Alaska is absolutely torching!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_25.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_25.png

Wall is holding up great…………in the Gulf of Mexico

[wxman57]

Alaska is absolutely torching!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_25.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_25.png

Wall is holding up great…………in the Gulf of Mexico

You cannot scare me. I can feel the warmth that will flood across Texas in the coming months. I notice the 18Z GFS doesn't even have Houston reaching the 30s over the next two weeks. Of course, it's not handling the cold air across SE TX well next Fri/Sat, when we may see upper 20s. However, winter is on its way out. I will prevail!

[Ntxw]

Anyone notice how the ENs drills stronger Alaskan blocking after this episode? That's a hot agreement between them. Much like the period we are heading into the models out in the long range sees higher heights across US but corrects near the surface in closer range because of the high blocking up there.

[Iceresistance]

Alaska is absolutely torching!

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_25.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_25.png

Wall is holding up great…………in the Gulf of Mexico

You cannot scare me. I can feel the warmth that will flood across Texas in the coming months. I notice the 18Z GFS doesn't even have Houston reaching the 30s over the next two weeks. Of course, it's not handling the cold air across SE TX well next Fri/Sat, when we may see upper 20s. However, winter is on its way out. I will prevail!

Time is not your favorite, but you may need to wait until you can do your work on the Spring & Summer to help bring in storms starting in Mid-March.

[orangeblood]

Ice Storm warning criteria on the CMC tonight

[Haris]

Long duration winter storm on cmc

[orangeblood]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/NZSz4N0/FB8-D3-BE7-B436-48-DF-925-C-5351-AAD3911-A.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/BNy7jvh/DA1-FD939-78-D7-4282-A1-B4-684572-B0037-F.png [/url]

Long duration winter storm on cmc

GEFS starting to hint at higher QPF amounts as well

[Haris]

[DW5522]

If we could get in to some higher QPUs we could really be into something!

[orangeblood]

GFS is the current outlier among the Globals when it comes to precip amounts next Wed/Thursday…drizzle/frz drizzle while others all have moderate/heavy frz rain

[gpsnowman]

GFS is the current outlier among the Globals when it comes to precip amounts next Wed/Thursday…drizzle/frz drizzle while others all have moderate/heavy frz rain

At this point I am hoping the storm goes south enough to get into the sleet portion for DFW. Heavy freezing rain doesn't sound fun. Still holding out for the snow possibility.

[wxman57]

Models are indicating freezing rain ending with sleet in the D-FW area next week. 00Z Euro has no freeze for SE TX, which is not as cold as yesterday's 12Z run. Too early to be confident in anything.

[bubba hotep]

12z ICON looks about the same with a borderline freezing rain/sleet event for portions of N & NE Texas with colder temps and more significant threat up into Oklahoma. It looks a lot like the GFS with pretty low qpf across N Texas but higher amounts as you head NE. I say hug the Euro at this point, simply for the higher qpf, which is much needed.

ETA: Actually, overall the ICON is much dryer for N. Texas than the GFS.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS ticks warmer again at the surface, so this is a real trend now. It looks like primarily a cold rain event for N. Texas with maybe some patchy freezing rain but temps will be borderline for ice buildup. If it's not going to snow, let's keep this trend and get the much needed rain.