Texas Winter 2021-2022

[txtwister78]

Models still all over the place in terms of the variation in temps across the state and how far south the shallow arctic air makes it into TX Wednesday. Obviously, that's going to determine where and if any frozen precip falls. I don't see anything that screams ice storm at all at this point. This looks like an overrunning/ freezing drizzle scenario to me (if that). This is why I was on guard early on about how far south the cold air would make it with a positive AO and NAO.

Some indication of a secondary push of arctic air late Thursday into Friday now by ICON and 6z GEFS, but who knows at this point whether that verifies. As is usually the case with these scenarios, will likely have to rely on hi-res data to help resolve the uncertainty but a definite trend warmer now with the operationals.

[Haris]

Already seeing NAM hinting that it’s gonna be stronger than modeled.

[txtwister78]

FWIW....12z GFS now shows the secondary push with a huge flip in temps Friday compared to the 6z with some light freezing rain across SC TX.

[funster]

NWS: We mostly don't know yet...

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1495013947925270528

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS is trending warmer, I really hope that's not the case.

[Quixotic]

The midrange shuffle. Having difficulty with shallow cold.

[Iceresistance]

The midrange shuffle. Having difficulty with shallow cold.

The WPC does not have that problem apparently . . .


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conusf93fa4c576aff380.gif

[Cpv17]

The midrange shuffle. Having difficulty with shallow cold.

This is why I’m not really concerned much about it. I’m fairly confident the cold is coming and the SE ridge isn’t going to win out. Models do this time and time again with these shallow Artic airmasses. How many times have we seen this..

[txtwister78]

The midrange shuffle. Having difficulty with shallow cold.

This is why I’m not really concerned much about it. I’m fairly confident the cold is coming and the SE ridge isn’t going to win out. Models do this time and time again with these shallow Artic airmasses. How many times have we seen this..

Difference is you have a positive AO/NAO so the tendency is for the cold to remain a bit more bottled up I think with that setup.... there are signs that we may get a secondary push late in the week that the models didn't have just two days ago, but how much cold is left is also suspect at that point. The other aspect is temps are going to be really warm out ahead of the shallow cold air as a result of the stout SE ridge (-PNA) so this is not a layup as some might think in my opinion.

I do agree models are probably not handling the shallow nature of the cold as it drains into the state, but I don't think this is one of those scenarios where we have an arctic HP that just overwhelms the pattern and the cold barrels into the state. I think this is going to be more gradual and as a result that can make forecasting winter precip tricky.

[Brent]

Euro looks icy even up here I would not mind that turning into a cold rain tbh

I hope it's a snowstorm but it just seems like theres gonna be a problem with ice

[Iceresistance]

Euro looks icy even up here I would not mind that turning into a cold rain tbh

I hope it's a snowstorm but it just seems like theres gonna be a problem with ice

The Euro is also showing multiple waves of snow across Oklahoma & Northern Texas through Early March

[orangeblood]

The midrange shuffle. Having difficulty with shallow cold.

This is why I’m not really concerned much about it. I’m fairly confident the cold is coming and the SE ridge isn’t going to win out. Models do this time and time again with these shallow Artic airmasses. How many times have we seen this..

Difference is you have a positive AO/NAO so the tendency is for the cold to remain a bit more bottled up I think with that setup.... there are signs that we may get a secondary push late in the week that the models didn't have just two days ago, but how much cold is left is also suspect at that point. The other aspect is temps are going to be really warm out ahead of the shallow cold air as a result of the stout SE ridge (-PNA) so this is not a layup as some might think in my opinion.

I do agree models are probably not handling the shallow nature of the cold as it drains into the state, but I don't think this is one of those scenarios where we have an arctic HP that just overwhelms the pattern and the cold barrels into the state. I think this is going to be more gradual and as a result that can make forecasting winter precip tricky.

Hi Res 5-10 deg F colder Tuesday, this airmass is even shallower than the one in early Feb….going to give Globals fits

[bubba hotep]

FWIW, the 18z NAM at 84hrs is about 5-6F colder across Southern OK and N. Texas than the 12z GFS was at 90hrs.

[bubba hotep]

Looking at the 12z Euro, adjusting the surface cooler to account for bias, it shows about 1" qpf across DFW that probably falls as freezing rain or sleet.

[gpsnowman]

Looking at the 12z Euro, adjusting the surface cooler to account for bias, it shows about 1" qpf across DFW that probably falls as freezing rain or sleet.

That much qpf would be a lot for any form of precip. Can one imagine 1"qpf with freezing rain? No thanks. The snow probability is looking slimmer and slimmer unfortunately.

[bubba hotep]

18z ICON is adjusting back cooler through 75hrs.

[bubba hotep]

Looking at the 12z Euro, adjusting the surface cooler to account for bias, it shows about 1" qpf across DFW that probably falls as freezing rain or sleet.

That much qpf would be a lot for any form of precip. Can one imagine 1"qpf with freezing rain? No thanks. The snow probability is looking slimmer and slimmer unfortunately.

The one good thing, with these very shallow air masses the surface has to be well below freezing to counteract the deeper warm layer. I've seen heavier rain actually melt the accumulated ice when temps are in the 30-32F range with a deep warm layer.

[gpsnowman]

Looking at the 12z Euro, adjusting the surface cooler to account for bias, it shows about 1" qpf across DFW that probably falls as freezing rain or sleet.

That much qpf would be a lot for any form of precip. Can one imagine 1"qpf with freezing rain? No thanks. The snow probability is looking slimmer and slimmer unfortunately.

The one good thing, with these very shallow air masses the surface has to be well below freezing to counteract the deeper warm layer. I've seen heavier rain actually melt the accumulated ice when temps are in the 30-32F range with a deep warm layer.

Good point, the warmer rain drops falling in a very shallow freezing layer have a tough time catching up. As mentioned before this system is different than the one in early Feb. This is why so many variables and questions arise when it comes to predicting Texas winter weather. Rarely a slam dunk, just a bunch of passing with a 35% chance of a 3 pointer. Or less.

[txtwister78]

Not much of a change with the 18z ICON. Temps very similar to the 12z and very little precip across TX other than the panhandle region.

[gpsnowman]

Case in point Bubba, the fam and I were in San Marcos during the "no catch" Dez Bryant game in January several years ago. The precip started as freezing rain but over time the deeper rain came in and melted the ice during the day with a temp close to 32. We made it home to Dallas no prob that evening.