Texas Winter 2021-2022

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS looks more juiced up but pulls the freezing line back northward through DFW, so verbatim it wouldn't really be a concern with most of the metroplex at or slightly above freezing. Now, combine the higher looking qpf with NAM temps and then you get some issues.

[orangeblood]

Pretty much all models now show a period of freezing rain/drizzle for DFW. Does FWD go with an Advisory or a Watch? It looks like the freezing rain accretion to 1/4 criteria will be close to being met, esp. if surface temps are lower like on the NAM.

Yeah, looking at most guidance 1/4 qpf seems borderline, WWAs seem likely with this event but latest GFS precip output may change things. Ice Storm Warnings could be on the table

[cheezyWXguy]

12z GFS looks more juiced up but pulls the freezing line back northward through DFW, so verbatim it wouldn't really be a concern with most of the metroplex at or slightly above freezing. Now, combine the higher looking qpf with NAM temps and then you get some issues.

GFS doing GFS things with the shallow cold

[orangeblood]

GEFS Mean now has DFW below freezing for a 60 hr stretch from early Wednesday morning thru Friday afternoon….the entire state is 10-25 below normal for a 5 day stretch

[Cpv17]

GEFS Mean now has DFW below freezing for a 60 hr stretch from early Wednesday morning thru Friday afternoon….the entire state is 10-25 below normal for a 5 day stretch

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom_5day/1645358400/1646049600-qGpdrrG0uKQ.png

Heck yeah!! That’s what I like to see right there

[orangeblood]

GEFS Mean now has DFW below freezing for a 60 hr stretch from early Wednesday morning thru Friday afternoon….the entire state is 10-25 below normal for a 5 day stretch

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f_anom_5day/1645358400/1646049600-qGpdrrG0uKQ.png

Heck yeah!! That’s what I like to see right there

Could arguably become a colder stretch than earlier this month, particularly with daily highs

[Ntxw]

This type of -EPO (Alaska/W Can) can sustain cold air masses relative to the time of year. There's not much -AO help so the deep cold isn't able to penetrate the SE ridge, however lower level cold can win. One background metric (at least for DFW) is the amount of freezes. Prior with the +EPO before the new year we had a whopping 1 freeze. Has come in bunches with the -EPO since.

[Haris]

This type of -EPO (Alaska/W Can) can sustain cold air masses relative to the time of year. There's not much -AO help so the deep cold isn't able to penetrate the SE ridge, however lower level cold can win. One background metric (at least for DFW) is the amount of freezes. Prior with the +EPO before the new year we had a whopping 1 freeze. Has come in bunches with the -EPO since.

https://i.imgur.com/SByReye.gif

How often does DFW get 40+ freezing nights? Good chance this year you reach that mark give y’all are at #31 or so.

Here in Austin I believe the city has gotten 13 but airport has seen 26

[Haris]

Seems important to remember. Damn!

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has a 3rd system for Winter Precipitation Saturday. This is crazy!

[Ntxw]

This type of -EPO (Alaska/W Can) can sustain cold air masses relative to the time of year. There's not much -AO help so the deep cold isn't able to penetrate the SE ridge, however lower level cold can win. One background metric (at least for DFW) is the amount of freezes. Prior with the +EPO before the new year we had a whopping 1 freeze. Has come in bunches with the -EPO since.

https://i.imgur.com/SByReye.gif

How often does DFW get 40+ freezing nights? Good chance this year you reach that mark give y’all are at #31 or so.

Here in Austin I believe the city has gotten 13 but airport has seen 26

42 years out of 126 kept on record so roughly a third of the time. 2013-2014 (55) and 2014-2015 (40) were the last occurrences. 28 so far.

[Haris]

HRRR coming in several degrees colder than even the NAM just like it was a few days ago w. the last front. Only model that never adjusted or was warm.

[Brent]

KFOR has a 3rd system for Winter Precipitation Saturday. This is crazy!

Tulsa talking about it too

With the cold air in place at the surface, at least two rounds of
wintry weather are expected to sweep across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas Wednesday into Thursday. The southwesterly
flow aloft will help provide the isentropic lift for the first
round of wintry precipitation beginning Wednesday morning and
continuing into Wednesday night. The second round will run from
Thursday morning into Thursday evening as as mid-level shortwave
ejects out of the Southwest US and across the area. During both
of these periods all modes of winter weather will be possible.
However, it is looking more likely that a good portion of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas will see more sleet and freezing
rain than snow. Significant impacts from the sleet and ice are
looking possible. Precipitation types and amounts will continue
to be refined as the event draws closer. Stay tuned.

After a dry yet chilly Friday, another chance of a wintry mix
will come Saturday into Saturday night as a another mid-level
shortwave sweeps across the area.

[Haris]

[Brent]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/pjV6tzw/3017-ACF1-A4-F3-462-D-B495-D0122-C8-A6265.png [/url]

That looks like a mess

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/pjV6tzw/3017-ACF1-A4-F3-462-D-B495-D0122-C8-A6265.png [/url]

That looks like a mess

A Textbook Sleetstorm for Oklahoma & Northern Texas by the NAM

We got NAMed!

[Brent]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/pjV6tzw/3017-ACF1-A4-F3-462-D-B495-D0122-C8-A6265.png [/url]

That looks like a mess

A Textbook Sleetstorm for Oklahoma & Northern Texas by the NAM

We got NAMed!

I just hope it's sleet and not freezing rain. Sleet can be managed

[txtwister78]

18z NAM about a few degrees "warmer" overall generally speaking during the Wednesday temp transition period. This run does indicate a small increase in coverage now of some light sleet/freezing rain mix from parts of Oklahoma into Central TX (still nothing significant though yet in terms of accumulation).

One thing as mentioned prior (even with the NAM's better handling of the shallow arctic air draining into the state) is this is probably as cold as you're going to get (a few degrees either way) with surface temps in looking at the small variation in temps from the panhandle into central TX late in the day on Wednesday (which is certainly well below average for this time of year) but right now even with the faster NAM, nothing screams significant cold or freezing precip (all manageable still despite the roller coaster weather week we have shaping up). I do think that may be the story line especially if the NAM has the better handle on the faster temp drop as many folks may be caught by "surprise" Wednesday.

The lighter amounts of frozen precip along with the manageable cold would be great news for our roads and the population centers. Holding out hope that we avoid that mess. Still a few things to watch though, especially should a secondary surge of arctic air arrive later in the week as some of the ensembles indicate now.

[Iceresistance]

That looks like a mess

A Textbook Sleetstorm for Oklahoma & Northern Texas by the NAM

We got NAMed!

I just hope it's sleet and not freezing rain. Sleet can be managed

Also want to note that the Warm Nose on the models is very strong, up to 6.5°C on the soundings. I hope that's not the case.

[bubba hotep]

I know people hate TTs snow maps but they do show where freezing surface temps a precipitation lineup fairly well. Most of this is either freezing rain or sleet.