Texas Winter 2021-2022

[orangeblood]

This would be a problem with temps in upper 20s

[wxman57]

This would be a problem with temps in upper 20s

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/precip_24hr_inch/1645380000/1645704000-pHVrKjWogSE.png

That same Euro has temps in the mid to upper 30s for the D-FW area during the precip. 18Z GFS is a little colder at 28-32 during the precip Wed night.

[bubba hotep]

This would be a problem with temps in upper 20s

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/precip_24hr_inch/1645380000/1645704000-pHVrKjWogSE.png

18z NAM temps during that period

[bubba hotep]

This would be a problem with temps in upper 20s

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/precip_24hr_inch/1645380000/1645704000-pHVrKjWogSE.png

That same Euro has temps in the mid to upper 30s for the D-FW area during the precip.

We know how you love the Euro's warm bias in these setups. You never miss sending it a Christmas card lol

[rwfromkansas]

This is a really tough forecast for FWD. It would almost be easier to forecast if you just went with cold bias and forecasted a long stretch below freezing with rounds of freezing rain & sleet. If we get temps bouncing up and down around freezing with rounds of moisture, then the roads will be a nightmare as people encounter rain in one area and then freezing rain and icy overpasses in another area of the metroplex.

Yep, the nightmare scenario is what occurred at the onset of the Last Feb Outbreak in Fort Worth….temps upper 20’s with sporadic light frz rain that led to the 70 car pileup and several deaths on I-35

Yes, and as a reminder to everyone who may view this event as insignificant, that pileup occurred due to accumulations of no more than 0.05” of ice.

In a way, minor events like that are worse because so many people let their guard down

I recall that morning. It was completely dry here. Not even a patch of drizzle. Yet, 5 miles south, that happened. People got confident.

[wxman57]

This would be a problem with temps in upper 20s

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/precip_24hr_inch/1645380000/1645704000-pHVrKjWogSE.png

That same Euro has temps in the mid to upper 30s for the D-FW area during the precip.

We know how you love the Euro's warm bias in these setups. You never miss sending it a Christmas card lol

I was just stating a fact, not saying it was correct. NAM has colder temps but very little precip. What I don't believe is both models stalling the front just north of Houston until Thursday afternoon/evening. History tells us that models under-forecast the southward movement of shallow cold air.

Meanwhile, with temps into the mid to upper 70s here tomorrow, I decided to take a vacation day to get in a long bike ride. Rode 21 miles today, but it was too cold to ride in shorts and short sleeves without a head covering or full-finger gloves. That'll change tomorrow.

[Haris]

Saw this on my feed. Looks like the RPM? This would be wave 1 for y’all.

[txtwister78]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/fv5kdBD/143397-C4-63-C7-46-CA-915-A-ABC5512-FDDC5.jpg [/url]
Saw this on my feed. Looks like the RPM? This would be wave 1 for y’all.

Definitely not the Euro, even though it says that on the graphic.

[Ntxw]

I guess we can confidently say SOME cold air is coming down . Arctic HP pattern. Seriously though, week+ ago we canceled winter.

[Brent]

I guess we can confidently say SOME cold air is coming down . Arctic HP pattern. Seriously though, week+ ago we canceled winter.

https://i.imgur.com/MXIzJow.png

https://i.imgur.com/nGVQV9E.gif

Yeah I'm still waiting for my tornadoes

Maybe in April or May

[Haris]

Yikes !

40 + hours of frozen precip for NCTX. Temps in 20s. Def would be major even if light

[Ntxw]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/wQ665zX/19-E4-B108-43-BA-4-E8-A-B112-7-E4-D46579-C7-B.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/bmq2pvq/3-CB299-EF-F5-A0-45-A9-B9-BB-C1-D33504-E428.png [/url]

Yikes !

40 + hours of frozen precip for NCTX. Temps in 20s. Def would be major even if light

It'll be interesting if this bout of shallow cold air can beat the speed/intensity of the last one. 31-33F early onset (eerily same time frame early month with the days in the week) last time prevented efficient icing. lower than 30 would be a nastier outcome.

[txtwister78]

Looks like (if NAM is accurate) sleet would be the predominant precip type across N TX with more freezing rain further south into Central TX.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

18z NAM about a few degrees "warmer" overall generally speaking during the Wednesday temp transition period. This run does indicate a small increase in coverage now of some light sleet/freezing rain mix from parts of Oklahoma into Central TX (still nothing significant though yet in terms of accumulation).

One thing as mentioned prior (even with the NAM's better handling of the shallow arctic air draining into the state) is this is probably as cold as you're going to get (a few degrees either way) with surface temps in looking at the small variation in temps from the panhandle into central TX late in the day on Wednesday (which is certainly well below average for this time of year) but right now even with the faster NAM, nothing screams significant cold or freezing precip (all manageable still despite the roller coaster weather week we have shaping up). I do think that may be the story line especially if the NAM has the better handle on the faster temp drop as many folks may be caught by "surprise" Wednesday.

The lighter amounts of frozen precip along with the manageable cold would be great news for our roads and the population centers. Holding out hope that we avoid that mess. Still a few things to watch though, especially should a secondary surge of arctic air arrive later in the week as some of the ensembles indicate now.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/t2m_f_dprog/1645380000/1645660800-HUOSr1DafUk.png

I guess we have different definitions of “significant”…highs of 26-28 F with .20-.30 inch qpf and the potential for 60 hrs below freezing is significant in my book for DFW and disruptive

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1645380000/1645660800-bBoNjnl09wA.png

This is a really tough forecast for FWD. It would almost be easier to forecast if you just went with cold bias and forecasted a long stretch below freezing with rounds of freezing rain & sleet. If we get temps bouncing up and down around freezing with rounds of moisture, then the roads will be a nightmare as people encounter rain in one area and then freezing rain and icy overpasses in another area of the metroplex.

I don’t envy the folks at FWD and the TV Mets at all. They get roundly criticized when they miss on a forecast like this, with no real acknowledgement of how narrow the differences can be. Literally a few hours or a degree difference in surface temps can mean huge differences in outcomes.

[Ntxw]

I guess we have different definitions of “significant”…highs of 26-28 F with .20-.30 inch qpf and the potential for 60 hrs below freezing is significant in my book for DFW and disruptive

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1645380000/1645660800-bBoNjnl09wA.png

This is a really tough forecast for FWD. It would almost be easier to forecast if you just went with cold bias and forecasted a long stretch below freezing with rounds of freezing rain & sleet. If we get temps bouncing up and down around freezing with rounds of moisture, then the roads will be a nightmare as people encounter rain in one area and then freezing rain and icy overpasses in another area of the metroplex.

I don’t envy the folks at FWD and the TV Mets at all. They get roundly criticized when they miss on a forecast like this, with no real acknowledgement of how narrow the differences can be. Literally a few hours or a degree difference in surface temps can mean huge differences in outcomes.

Well it's looking more like a scenario where DFW and the northern half of NTX may get to freezing Wednesday morning and stay there or below until Saturday is at least better on the table.

[Haris]

ICON now has NTX below freezing thru Thu. Major shift S in the cold. 65 in the Hill Co in last nights run, and now 35

[Brent]

ICON now has NTX below freezing thru Thu. Major shift S in the cold. 65 in the Hill Co in last nights run, and now 35

Its colder than the NAM here with temps staying in the teens Wednesday

Not that I don't believe even at low mid 20s the sleet won't stick to everything but

[txtwister78]

0z GFS pretty much mirrors the Euro keeping most of the frozen precip NW of DFW. Globals still not budging yet.

[txtwister78]

GEFS...the back and forth continues. Very little help. NAM pretty much stands alone. I think by tomorrow evening into Tuesday when the other short range HI-RES begin to come into focus, we should have a better idea how this all plays out, but still a lot of questions on the table that remain tonight.

[Texas Snow]

Often times at this timeframe for these scenarios it’s a blend of Nam for temps and globals for precip. The euro is about to run and I suspect that within 24 hours from now one side will have caved to the other with new HiRes to confirm and we will have a better forecast of what will likely happen. Get your bets in now with DFW being the likely battleground for prop betting