Texas Winter 2021-2022

[txtwister78]

Well folks I think we know now tonight (at least with a little more certainty) where this is now headed. New runs of the WRF-NSSL and ARW2.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2022022200/048/sfct.us_sc.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2022022200/wrf-arw2_T2m_scus_49.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2022022200/wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_scus_48.png

That’s an I-35 cold bleed is what that is….temps mid 20’s will stick to most everything

Yeah I've seen that occur here before no doubt with these arctic fronts and despite the global models going in a totally different direction, these scenarios are never as easy to predict as some might think in the medium range until you get the arctic air down in the plains and can track it real-time (ex-tonight). Hopefully we see manageable precip amounts though to avoid significant travel issues across the state. I think that's still up in the air tonight.

[Ntxw]

Well folks I think we know now tonight (at least with a little more certainty) where this is now headed. New runs of the WRF-NSSL and ARW2.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2022022200/048/sfct.us_sc.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2022022200/wrf-arw2_T2m_scus_49.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2022022200/wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_scus_48.png

That’s an I-35 cold bleed is what that is….temps mid 20’s will stick to most everything

Yeah I've seen that occur here before no doubt with these arctic fronts and despite the global models going in a totally different direction, these scenarios are never as easy to predict as some might think in the medium range until you get the arctic air down in the plains and can track it real-time (ex-tonight). Hopefully we see manageable precip amounts though to avoid significant travel issues across the state. I think that's still up in the air tonight.

I think the cold will be there, there is def still bust potential if qpf doesn't come through. Still a good risk though.

Surprising the models do well away from the slopes and high grounds of the Great Plains. If you look at the graphics outside of the middle states they're not so bad with it currently. Gravity does the work going downhill.

[orangeblood]

The proof is in the pudding. Don't even get me started with the Globals on temp push.

https://i.imgur.com/u9d4zvW.png

https://i.imgur.com/0Tz25nA.png

Yup, it’s such a massive flaw in a setup like this

Credit to you and others who are never afraid to go bold

Although Ntxw and I probably sound like Grumpy Old Men (probably just me) by now, we’ve been complaining about for 10-15 years on here

[TheProfessor]

We've gone from 70 to 27 in just 6 hours lol. GFS is definitely way too far north. Seems like a freezing drizzle setup here with some pretty impressive low level saturation on the models (though the surface is a bit dry on some of them). GFS shows snow (now well to the north of me) but not sure about that.

[orangeblood]

RDPS now has DFW 27F with gusts to 25mph at 3pm on Wednesday afternoon

[txtwister78]

Extended RAP getting there with temps but very little precip (spotty drizzle at best) through 51 hours.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022022203/051/zr_acc.us_sc.png

[TheProfessor]

Extended RAP getting there with temps but very little precip (spotty drizzle at best) through 51 hours.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022022203/051/zr_acc.us_sc.png

Pretty much have to stop using p-type maps and accumulations at this point. This type of sounding in DFW (from the RAP) would cause freezing drizzle that the models just aren't seeing. These prolonged freezing drizzle events can be very nasty and impactful.

[Haris]

Extended RAP getting there with temps but very little precip (spotty drizzle at best) through 51 hours.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022022203/051/zr_acc.us_sc.png

Does start blowing up some stuff at the end from the west. Seems in line with most guidance. Wednesday will be light drizzle

[TheProfessor]

Area sounding for all of DFW.



Anything even somewhat convective will probably have rumbles of thunder too.

[orangeblood]

Extended RAP getting there with temps but very little precip (spotty drizzle at best) through 51 hours.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022022203/051/zr_acc.us_sc.png

Pretty much have to stop using p-type maps and accumulations at this point. This type of sounding in DFW (from the RAP) would cause freezing drizzle that the models just aren't seeing. These prolonged freezing drizzle events can be very nasty and impactful.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Z2FDBdR/rap-2022022203-051-32-94-97-16.png [/url]

Yep, arguably more impactful than some WS Warnings…these prolonged frz drz / spotty light frz rain events can be some of the most dangerous setups

RDPS approaching Ice Storm Warning criteria northern portions of metroplex

[cheezyWXguy]

Area sounding for all of DFW.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/LSR9nVP/rap-2022022203-051-area-32-42-33-31-97-75-96-07.png [/url]

Anything even somewhat convective will probably have rumbles of thunder too.

That is an absurdly warm warm nose. If precip was heavy enough, would it warm the surface in this scenario?

[txtwister78]

Extended RAP getting there with temps but very little precip (spotty drizzle at best) through 51 hours.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022022203/051/zr_acc.us_sc.png

Pretty much have to stop using p-type maps and accumulations at this point. This type of sounding in DFW (from the RAP) would cause freezing drizzle that the models just aren't seeing. These prolonged freezing drizzle events can be very nasty and impactful.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Z2FDBdR/rap-2022022203-051-32-94-97-16.png [/url]

Oh yeah mentioned the spotty drizzle. Not discounting it. Definitely still an issue for bridges and overpasses no doubt. Doesn't take much to cause slick spots. Looking at trends at this point with each model.

[TheProfessor]

Area sounding for all of DFW.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/LSR9nVP/rap-2022022203-051-area-32-42-33-31-97-75-96-07.png [/url]

Anything even somewhat convective will probably have rumbles of thunder too.

That is an absurdly warm warm nose. If precip was heavy enough, would it warm the surface in this scenario?

There would be some canceling out. You'd probably get some evaporative cooling in the midlevels assuming the precipitation started above (which it wouldn't in that sounding) then you would also have cooling due to latent heat with heavy melting snow. In this case, it's hard to get real heavy precip in this kind of setup, but in a scenario where it occurred then yes it probably would.

[Haris]

Area sounding for all of DFW.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/LSR9nVP/rap-2022022203-051-area-32-42-33-31-97-75-96-07.png [/url]

Anything even somewhat convective will probably have rumbles of thunder too.

That is an absurdly warm warm nose. If precip was heavy enough, would it warm the surface in this scenario?

It happened in feb 2021 in Austin. Went from 24 to 32. But that dbz was like 30-40. Doubt it gets that high anywhere this time. So no BUT if it was heavier storm, yes for sure.

[Quixotic]

Storm came through here. Definitely bigger than golf ball sized hail. Woke the kid up and he never wakes up.

[Quixotic]

BTW, precip will be heavy enough for thunder according to point forecasts. That would be something if it’s 25 degrees.

[gpsnowman]

Woke up to some heavy rain. That hasn't happened in a long time.

[gpsnowman]

23 degrees in OKC
63 in Ardmore.

[bubba hotep]

From FWD and shocking to no one.

Attention turns to the arctic cold front that is currently
spilling into North Texas. Latest observations show that it is
well ahead of schedule and has moved through Breckenridge,
Graham, and Bowie where temperatures are already in the 30s with
brisk north winds.

[BrokenGlass]

23 degrees in OKC
63 in Ardmore.

27 in Wichita Falls
63 in Ft Worth (~60 miles?)


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