Texas Winter 2021-2022

[BrokenGlass]

From FWD and shocking to no one.

Attention turns to the arctic cold front that is currently
spilling into North Texas. Latest observations show that it is
well ahead of schedule and has moved through Breckenridge,
Graham, and Bowie where temperatures are already in the 30s with
brisk north winds.

Went to sleep last night reading that freeze line would reach Dallas ~ noon on Wednesday. Unless it slams on the brakes, it’ll be 24 hours early?


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[Iceresistance]

We've gone from 70 to 27 in just 6 hours lol. GFS is definitely way too far north. Seems like a freezing drizzle setup here with some pretty impressive low level saturation on the models (though the surface is a bit dry on some of them). GFS shows snow (now well to the north of me) but not sure about that.

69 to 20 in the same general time period, yikes! The Low was only expected to be 33.

[orangeblood]

From FWD and shocking to no one.

Attention turns to the arctic cold front that is currently
spilling into North Texas. Latest observations show that it is
well ahead of schedule and has moved through Breckenridge,
Graham, and Bowie where temperatures are already in the 30s with
brisk north winds.

Went to sleep last night reading that freeze line would reach Dallas ~ noon on Wednesday. Unless it slams on the brakes, it’ll be 24 hours early?


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Won’t get down to frz with initial push, 2nd cold surge should occur after sunset…frz line should approach Metroplex closer to midnight so 12 hrs early

[DallasAg]

I took a look at the record books for DFW just to see if anything is in play this week. It's interesting that the last 10 days of February have some decent cold and snow records. The only two records which look like they might be threatened:

2/23 - lowest maximum - 30 (2015)
2/26 - snowfall - T (2015)

[wxman57]

That is quite a warm nose over the D-FW area. 50-52F at 850mb (5000 ft). Sub-freezing air will be from the surface to about 2500-3000 ft. Good setup for freezing rain and possibly sleet. No snow. Meanwhile, it was 83F in Houston yesterday. Had half a good bike ride. First half (13 miles) with the wind riding 18-20 mph and not feeling any wind. Wish I could say the same about the return leg.

[orangeblood]

I took a look at the record books for DFW just to see if anything is in play this week. It's interesting that the last 10 days of February have some decent cold and snow records. The only two records which look like they might be threatened:

2/23 - lowest maximum - 30 (2015)
2/26 - snowfall - T (2015)

2/23 max should occur at midnight so maybe tight to get to 30
2/24 max of 28 could happen too

[Haris]

Extended rap and hrrr getting wetter

[Ntxw]

17F at OKC this morning. Colder than most guidance. For sure way colder than any globals from a few days ago which had them approach freezing around this time. This air mass means business.

[DallasAg]

Some pretty crazy temperature contrasts across DFW at 8:00 CST. Alliance is 40, Spinks is 64. Maybe 30 miles between the 2. Totally different than the Feb 2nd front which oozed through and temps would drop 2-3 degrees/hour.

[Ralph's Weather]

Freeze line is currently along an Eastland to Decatur to Gainesville line. It has entered NW Denton Co.

[cheezyWXguy]

Some pretty crazy temperature contrasts across DFW at 8:00 CST. Alliance is 40, Spinks is 64. Maybe 30 miles between the 2. Totally different than the Feb 2nd front which oozed through and temps would drop 2-3 degrees/hour.

According to the temp stations on wundermap, it’s 65 where I am in uptown, and 52 at love field, which I can see from where I live. Wut.

[Haris]

17F at OKC this morning. Colder than most guidance. For sure way colder than any globals from a few days ago which had them approach freezing around this time. This air mass means business.

This is gonna end up more serious than early feb if trends continue

[Quixotic]

lol @ the models showing sw flow bottling up the shallow dense arctic air. 68 - 37 since the hail woke me up at 330am.

[Quixotic]

Convective sleet would be fun.

[Brent]

23 degrees here way colder than I expected

We are supposed to make a run at upper 30s today. Forgive me if I'm skeptical

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of the 6Z GFS temp/precip for DFW. The 48F at 9am doesn't look too bad. However, the temperature rising to 54 by 3pm looks suspect.

http://wxman57.com/images/6ZDFW.JPG

[Ntxw]

Here's a plot of the 6Z GFS temp/precip for DFW. The 48F at 9am doesn't look too bad. However, the temperature rising to 54 by 3pm looks suspect.

http://wxman57.com/images/6ZDFW.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/6ZDFW.JPG

DFW will be close to 40F @8:53 update. It was 43 in the intermediate mid hour reading.

[Texas Snowman]

Now freezing here in Denison…

[txtwister78]

3km NAM showing a mess. I wouldn't be surprised to see Winter Storm Watches posted this afternoon. What you might see is a winter weather advisory initially Wed across forecast offices with some areas perhaps upgrading to a warning Thursday if precip trends continue to increase during that timeframe. Doesn't make much difference however in that bridges/overpasses could become slick regardless as this is shaping up to be more of a freezing rain event across NTX (where sleet is looking less likely due to stout warm nose) down into SCTX.

[txtwister78]

Definitely the coldest of the HI-RES and definitely something to watch. Lol. Edit...added 12z WRF-NSSL which is also similar (both temps/ frozen precip) to ARW2.