#6088 Postby jasons2k » Tue Feb 22, 2022 10:47 am
Morning update for SE Texas from Jeff Lindner:
Arctic cold front will move across Texas over the next 24-36 hours.
Arctic surface boundary currently extends from near Fort Worth back WSW into WC TX with temperatures of 66 at Fort Worth and 27 at Wichita Falls. Boundary is making good progress to the south well ahead of projected model guidance as is usual in these sort of setups. While the upper level flow is not favorable for a push of cold air to the south, the density of the cold air continues to move it southward against the unfavorable flow aloft. Will follow the fastest and coldest of the short range guidance with this boundary as the global models are too slow and warm.
Arctic front will continue southward today, but ahead of the boundary with breaks in the low level overcast, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80’s over the region, this will create a large temperature contrast across the state with temperatures in the upper 90’s over deep south Texas and near 0 in the panhandle. Front will slow today and then continue slowly south this evening arriving into SE TX around sunset. Temperatures behind the front will quickly fall into the 40’s with gusty north winds. Front will likely reach the I-10/US 59 corridors by Wednesday morning and then slow again as best forcing and push of the cold air shifts off to the northeast. Main question is where does the front stall, based on current trends, think it will be closer to the coast, but probably not offshore and this will likely yield a strong temperature gradient across the area on Wednesday. For example areas in NW Harris County will likely be in the 40’s while areas near Galveston Bay in the mid to upper 70’s. Cold air mass will be extremely shallow (around 1,000-2,000 ft) deep with temperatures warming to near 60 just above the surface cold dome. Additionally, southerly winds above the surface cold dome will help to lift moisture and result in scattered areas of light rain, drizzle and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Lots of potential for temperature forecast busts on Wednesday…upwards of 30-35 degrees in some areas depending on frontal location. I am leaning toward the faster and colder solutions which show the front making it south of I-10 and closer to the coast on Wednesday which would bring much of the area into the 40’s and 50’s.
Arctic front may lift back slightly to the north on Wednesday night before getting a secondary push on Thursday which will bring the boundary offshore by afternoon/evening and bring all of SE TX into the cold sector. Highs on Thursday will be cold and mainly in the 40’s although some areas to the north and west may remain in the 30’s. Areas of light rain, drizzle, and fog will continue as the warm upglide over the surface cold dome continues.
Cold air will remain locked in place into the weekend with several upper air disturbances to pass over the region resulting in periods of cloudy, showery, and foggy conditions. Overnight lows on both Friday and Saturday mornings may drop near or below freezing along and north of a line from Columbus to Huntsville and with precipitation possible a mix of rain/freezing rain will be possible in those areas. At this time any ice accumulation is expected to remain mainly to the NW of SE TX, but something to watch in the coming 24-36 hours. Overall temperatures will likely struggle to get much above 50 for highs through the weekend with clouds and lingering light rain/drizzle in place.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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the weather station closest to me is at 18 though I've noticed it runs cold
