Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ralph's Weather]

Over a 30 degree temperature contrast across Van Zandt County currently. 43 to 76.

[Iceresistance]

Something crazy needs to happen if we will get above freezing, the Strong North Wind is keeping the Temperatures below freezing.

It's still 20°F outside, huge Temperature bust potential.

[bubba hotep]

Hi-res guidance shows DFW moderating back into the mid-40s this afternoon, not sure that's going to happen. Even if DFW was to warm back up to 44ish that would still be full degree colder than the coldest SREF member.

[CaptinCrunch]

The forecast bust for DFW is already going on, just about all forecast had front in here around noon, is was 830am when the front past DFW, and the temps have greatly dropped. We will be around 32 maybe as early as 7pm if not earlier. Just this morning Delkus was talking freezing by 5am Wednesday, guess he hugged the wrong models. NAM may win out on temperatures profiles this round, and I also don't see this front retreating back across DFW as a warm front by noon Thursday. We may see are WWA upgraded to a WATCH, or even a WARNING by early Thursday if enough precipitation continues to exist.

[orangeblood]

The forecast bust for DFW is already going on, just about all forecast had front in here around noon, is was 830am when the front past DFW, and the temps have greatly dropped. We will be around 32 maybe as early as 7pm if not earlier. Just this morning Delkus was talking freezing by 5am Wednesday, guess he hugged the wrong models. NAM may win out on temperatures profiles this round, and I also don't see this front retreating back across DFW as a warm front by noon Thursday. We may see are WWA upgraded to a WATCH, or even a WARNING by early Thursday if enough precipitation continues to exist.

Models are probably too far north with upglide along 850 mb front, precip bands will probably be further south than what is currently depicted. Everything is in flux with this forecast

[Snowman67]

Definitely the coldest of the HI-RES and definitely something to watch. Lol. Edit...added 12z WRF-NSSL which is also similar (both temps/ frozen precip) to ARW2.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2022022212/wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_scus_46.png

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2022022212/048/zr_acc.us_sc.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2022022212/wrf-arw2_T2m_scus_40.png

Almost seems as if there is some sort of wall keeping those freezing temperatures away from Houston? Wonder what (or I should say who) that might be attributed to

[bubba hotep]

12z guidance is pointing to pretty widespread qpf between 0.25-0.50"+ across a large area of Texas.

[gboudx]

The forecast bust for DFW is already going on, just about all forecast had front in here around noon, is was 830am when the front past DFW, and the temps have greatly dropped. We will be around 32 maybe as early as 7pm if not earlier. Just this morning Delkus was talking freezing by 5am Wednesday, guess he hugged the wrong models. NAM may win out on temperatures profiles this round, and I also don't see this front retreating back across DFW as a warm front by noon Thursday. We may see are WWA upgraded to a WATCH, or even a WARNING by early Thursday if enough precipitation continues to exist.

It's going to be brutal sitting out in the bleachers watching my son's high school soccer game which starts at 7:15.

[CaptinCrunch]

The forecast bust for DFW is already going on, just about all forecast had front in here around noon, is was 830am when the front past DFW, and the temps have greatly dropped. We will be around 32 maybe as early as 7pm if not earlier. Just this morning Delkus was talking freezing by 5am Wednesday, guess he hugged the wrong models. NAM may win out on temperatures profiles this round, and I also don't see this front retreating back across DFW as a warm front by noon Thursday. We may see are WWA upgraded to a WATCH, or even a WARNING by early Thursday if enough precipitation continues to exist.

It's going to be brutal sitting out in the bleachers watching my son's high school soccer game which starts at 7:15.

Just checked DFW Airport and it is showing a current temp of 39, that's what they were forecasting for around 10pm this evening

[WacoWx]

DFW forecast has a warmup to 53 by 3:00p. Currently 40.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

They are even a bust here with high temps, in Denver. Temps dropped about 6 degrees faster than expected for rush hour, and where i am, it's still below zero right now. Expected to reach 12 today. Dont think that will happen.

Mountain regions are very difficult to forecast though. Have to cut the mets lots of slack here.

[Snowman67]

Front is trucking, Wind shift already through Waco.

[orangeblood]

Geez, check out the latest Euro ENS EPO forecast….good luck with that March warmup Wxman57

[ColdFusion]

DFW forecast has a warmup to 53 by 3:00p. Currently 40.

Has now been adjusted:

Today: Partly sunny, with a steady temperature around 42. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is colder for DFW, but still has the temp rising to 47 by noon. It's still 38 there.

[Brent]

I'm seeing snowflakes here now

Be nice if that warm nose was overdone tomorrow

[Snowman67]

12Z GFS is colder for DFW, but still has the temp rising to 47 by noon. It's still 38 there.

At what point does a forecaster throw the model(s) out the window when surface observations deviate so widely from what the models show?

[Iceresistance]

I'm seeing snowflakes here now

Be nice if that warm nose was overdone tomorrow

Yes, it would be only snow instead of Sleet & Ice!

[HockeyTx82]

My home weather station (Ponder) went from 34F at 930AM to 42F at 1230PM.

That's interesting.

[CaptinCrunch]

My home weather station (Ponder) went from 34F at 930AM to 42F at 1230PM.

That's interesting.

With the patchy clouds and sun coming through it's expected. If the cloud deck was thick and full you can bet temps would remain around that 38 if not cooler till sunset.

But it's still 10+ degrees below yesterday's forecast.