Texas Winter 2021-2022

[gboudx]

I don't think he travels this far north this time of year. Too cold for him.

I can have a very broad reach across Texas. I notice that the shallow cold air is modifying quickly at DFW - up to 45 there now. Just a little freezing rain/sleet up there Wed/Thu then it's bye-bye winter weather for this season.

Up to 45? It was just 38 there like 3 hours ago. That’s discouraging.

It was 39 here and is now 45. Once the clouds thinned, allowing in more sunlight, the temp has warmed. Keep in mind that the front was probably 6 hours or so ahead of schedule. I just talked to my boss who lives in Cedar Park north of Austin and it's 84. Quite the contrast.

[CaptinCrunch]

I don't think he travels this far north this time of year. Too cold for him.

I can have a very broad reach across Texas. I notice that the shallow cold air is modifying quickly at DFW - up to 45 there now. Just a little freezing rain/sleet up there Wed/Thu then it's bye-bye winter weather for this season.

Up to 45? It was just 38 there like 3 hours ago. That’s discouraging.

Partly cloudy skies, sun has warmed the metro area a few degrees. Wait till the sun sets

[Haris]

I can have a very broad reach across Texas. I notice that the shallow cold air is modifying quickly at DFW - up to 45 there now. Just a little freezing rain/sleet up there Wed/Thu then it's bye-bye winter weather for this season.

Up to 45? It was just 38 there like 3 hours ago. That’s discouraging.

Partly cloudy skies, sun has warmed the metro area a few degrees. Wait till the sun sets

Yep. Drop like a rock after sunset. And every model had modification into the 40s,

btw 86 in Austin. Holy smokes it is nasty

[orangeblood]

Ice Storm Warning criteria now showing up on latest RDPS for DFW

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Geez, check out the latest Euro ENS EPO forecast….good luck with that March warmup Wxman57

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1645488000-2vlYW%20wJfXycgrb2.png

the jet extension into the Pacific, as a result of the MJO, may have something to do with this. Not complaining!

This has been showing up much of the past week on the ENs. Freakishly strong agreement for long range of AK ridge and better AO (natural seasonal weakening of PV). Suspect after moderation period we see some anomalous cold snap for March.

That block looks very big, now what do we need to get blocking in Greenland? #Greedy

[Quixotic]

the jet extension into the Pacific, as a result of the MJO, may have something to do with this. Not complaining!

This has been showing up much of the past week on the ENs. Freakishly strong agreement for long range of AK ridge and better AO (natural seasonal weakening of PV). Suspect after moderation period we see some anomalous cold snap for March.

That block looks very big, now what do we need to get blocking in Greenland? #Greedy

Nope. NAO is overrated for our part of the nation. Don't get me wrong as it would be a bonus and keep us colder longer, but the EPO is the big driver on this.

[Portastorm]

I can have a very broad reach across Texas. I notice that the shallow cold air is modifying quickly at DFW - up to 45 there now. Just a little freezing rain/sleet up there Wed/Thu then it's bye-bye winter weather for this season.

Up to 45? It was just 38 there like 3 hours ago. That’s discouraging.

It was 39 here and is now 45. Once the clouds thinned, allowing in more sunlight, the temp has warmed. Keep in mind that the front was probably 6 hours or so ahead of schedule. I just talked to my boss who lives in Cedar Park north of Austin and it's 84. Quite the contrast.

Yep, so far our max today at the airport is 85 ... and 86 at Camp Mabry. It's been a warm spring day down here ... but the very shallow cooler airmass is on our doorstep as I type this. Burnet is 66 degrees.

[Quixotic]

TBH, I'm paying more attention to DP than actual temp. Might be a bonus if it would be clear most of the night, but the CAA wouldn't let things drop too much further. Temps in the mid to upper 20s with a DP around 15 or so would be ripe if we started overrunning precip.

[Golf7270]

Hey guys. Does anyone know if the rgem model is accurate or overdone all the time? It is showing a doomsday scenario for my area if its correct

[gpsnowman]

The tricky part for tomorrow is most people will be going to work and kids going to school. The problem is the icy conditions while everyone is away from home. This could cause a nightmare scenario in the afternoon, especially if schools opt for an early release. And then there is Thursday. I normally leave for work at 5:15 so I will post an early morning update.

[Iceresistance]

I'm surprised that I got up to 32°F today, I did not think it was very possible, but the winds died down just enough for this to work.

[Golf7270]

My area is under a winter storm warning but what's interesting is that we wasn't under a watch but jumped from nothing to warning. Up to .40 inch ice and quarter inch sleet. I'm think just a small glaze here

[South Texas Storms]

Hey guys. Does anyone know if the rgem model is accurate or overdone all the time?

The RGEM is typically one of the more reliable short range models. I use it often. Only thing is it's sometimes a bit too cold for temperatures. But for precipitation it normally does a good job.

[Golf7270]

Hey guys. Does anyone know if the rgem model is accurate or overdone all the time?

The RGEM is typically one of the more reliable short range models. I use it often. Only thing is it's sometimes a bit too cold for temperatures. But for precipitation it normally does a good job.

If it's even remotely correct, bad bad scenario for my area. I dont believe it makes it to 26 degrees at any point here but that's what it indicates

[bubba hotep]

Temps moderated some this after, as expected, but even with the "warm up" DFW still busted the 15 SREF.

[bubba hotep]

Hey guys. Does anyone know if the rgem model is accurate or overdone all the time?

The RGEM is typically one of the more reliable short range models. I use it often. Only thing is it's sometimes a bit too cold for temperatures. But for precipitation it normally does a good job.

Also, it's higher qpf is supported by the 12z Euro/EPS. It wouldn't be surprising to see some areas north of I20 push above 0.5" qpf.

[HockeyTx82]

Hey guys. Does anyone know if the rgem model is accurate or overdone all the time?

The RGEM is typically one of the more reliable short range models. I use it often. Only thing is it's sometimes a bit too cold for temperatures. But for precipitation it normally does a good job.

Also, it's higher qpf is supported by the 12z Euro/EPS. It wouldn't be surprising to see some areas north of I20 push above 0.5" qpf.

So does mean that after the precip falls ans thaws I should get about that much in my rain bucket? It counts .01" at a time.

[Haris]

Not to sound like a sentimental baby, but can i just appreciate what a great community this is. My hope is we have a meetup of every Texas Winter storm2k member at some venue one day. It's been a blast tracking it thus far with everyone. Hopefully we all get a little action but stay safe at the same time too. Best of luck to all.

[orangeblood]

Hey guys. Does anyone know if the rgem model is accurate or overdone all the time?

The RGEM is typically one of the more reliable short range models. I use it often. Only thing is it's sometimes a bit too cold for temperatures. But for precipitation it normally does a good job.

Also, it's higher qpf is supported by the 12z Euro/EPS. It wouldn't be surprising to see some areas north of I20 push above 0.5" qpf.

Yeah, this looks like a North of I-20 upgrade to Ice Storm Warnings potential

[gpsnowman]

Not to sound like a sentimental baby, but can i just appreciate what a great community this is. My hope is we have a meetup of every Texas Winter storm2k member at some venue one day. It's been a blast tracking it thus far with everyone. Hopefully we all get a little action but stay safe at the same time too. Best of luck to all.

Party at Portastorm's house. A convenient central Texas location.