ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Febuary CPC update has La Niña at 35%, Neutral at 46% and El Niño at 17% for ASO.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[DorkyMcDorkface]

If we somehow manage to triple dip it would be the first time since 1998-2000 where we've had three successive Niña episodes in the Pacific. Additionally, history does does show that El Niño episodes are almost guaranteed to occur the year after, so we would likely be in prime position for one in 2023. But of course that all depends on what happens these next few months regarding the MJO. If it continues to stall in the Indian Ocean then yes, +ENSO prospects this year would lower dramatically, but it's a different story if it does manage to eventually break on through into the Pacific, as it shouldn't take much of a WWB to guide the subsurface warm pool to the surface. It's because of said warm pool that I do believe we have a better chance at warm neutral/El Niño than last year, but again, if the MJO continues to constructively interfere with the current Niña base state then Upwelling KWs can stall its progress and perhaps cause it to wither away.

[cycloneye]

If we somehow manage to triple dip it would be the first time since 1998-2000 where we've had three successive Niña episodes in the Pacific. Additionally, history does does show that El Niño episodes are almost guaranteed to occur the year after, so we would likely be in prime position for one in 2023. But of course that all depends on what happens these next few months regarding the MJO. If it continues to stall in the Indian Ocean then yes, +ENSO prospects this year would lower dramatically, but it's a different story if it does manage to eventually break on through into the Pacific, as it shouldn't take much of a WWB to guide the subsurface warm pool to the surface. It's because of said warm pool that I do believe we have a better chance at warm neutral/El Niño than last year, but again, if the MJO continues to constructively interfere with the current Niña base state then Upwelling KWs can stall its progress and perhaps cause it to wither away.

Agreed about 2023 that is going to have a bonifide El Niño but in the meantime, we will have to deal with another active Atlantic hurricane season in 2022.

[Kingarabian]

Oceanic kelvin wave activity for the past year:


Looking at March and April 2021, shows how important it is to get atmospheric coupling while the downwelling KW's are in place. Or else that El Nino potential is wasted. We'll see if a cold pool will follow this warm pool by about mid March.

[AlphaToOmega]

Oceanic kelvin wave activity for the past year:
https://i.imgur.com/0darLN3.png

Looking at March and April 2021, shows how important it is to get atmospheric coupling while the downwelling KW's are in place. Or else that El Nino potential is wasted. We'll see if a cold pool will follow this warm pool by about mid March.

The downwelling KWs certainly have warmed the Nino 4 region, though.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1493585532214984707

[AlphaToOmega]

MAM will be a very critical time for ENSO development. Any small westerly or easterly wind burst could tip the odds in favor of an El Nino or a La Nina respectively.
[

[NotSparta]

MAM will be a very critical time for ENSO development. Any small westerly or easterly wind burst could tip the odds in favor of an El Nino or a La Nina respectively.
[https://i.postimg.cc/FFwDpbhq/cfs-mon-01-u850a-Mean-month-global-1.png

Yeah, that's why some climate models (CFS being one of the most) keep us in -ENSO. Easterlies during that period. However these models have trouble handling the MJO so I wouldn't hang my hat on them

[Yellow Evan]

January 2022 PDO is out:

2021-10 -2.1850
2021-11 -1.8904
2021-12 -1.9434
2022-01 -1.5440

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/d ... do/pdo.txt

Honestly while the pattern in the Pacific screams an eventful transition to +PDO, the current value in itself is not conducive for a Nino.

[Kingarabian]

GFS will soon start showing a strong MJO entering the WPAC by the end of the first week of March. As it normally does every spring.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS will soon start showing a strong MJO entering the WPAC by the end of the first week of March. As it normally does every spring.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS will soon start showing a strong MJO entering the WPAC by the end of the first week of March. As it normally does every spring.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733554252567281754/944210789844283392/image0.jpg

What exactly does that image show, if you don't mind me asking?

[AlphaToOmega]

GFS will soon start showing a strong MJO entering the WPAC by the end of the first week of March. As it normally does every spring.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733554252567281754/944210789844283392/image0.jpg

What exactly does that image show, if you don't mind me asking?

It is showing easterlies over the tropical western Pacific Ocean.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733554252567281754/944210789844283392/image0.jpg

What exactly does that image show, if you don't mind me asking?

It is showing easterlies over the tropical western Pacific Ocean.

Easterlies? Wouldn't that really shut down the chance of El Nino, let alone a +ENSO state?

[Yellow Evan]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733554252567281754/944210789844283392/image0.jpg

What exactly does that image show, if you don't mind me asking?

It is showing easterlies over the tropical western Pacific Ocean.

Only east of 140E. You can see the clear westerlies further west, likely due to the incoming MJO.

[Kingarabian]

GFS will soon start showing a strong MJO entering the WPAC by the end of the first week of March. As it normally does every spring.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733554252567281754/944210789844283392/image0.jpg

We'll see if it verifies and how far east it can get into the WPAC as the time frame comes in. GFS did a lot better than the Euro and CFS with calling for a big IO MJO event back in late December, while those two were calling for it be in the WPAC. Right now the Euro and the CFS are calling for a much weaker MC/WPAC MJO.

[AlphaToOmega]

As we go into March, the MJO patterns will decide everything.

[Kingarabian]

As we go into March, the MJO patterns will decide everything.
https://i.postimg.cc/Hn8kyKx4/ensplume-full.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/43XySBLs/ps2png-worker-commands-5cc9d5d68-742xq-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-B9-LBCw.png

That GFS MJO forecast can be interpolated into a strong WPAC MJO even though it's not in range yet. But the GFS literally always shows a big WPAC MJO at this time of the year.
So we have to take it with a grain of salt.

We don't know how strong the upcoming upwelling KW will be. We probably need a significant MJO in the WPAC to shift things back to El Nino. it's debatable that a simple WPAC MJO passage will be any help if that upwelling KW is strong.

[AlphaToOmega]

The February CPC/IRI average is neutral until OND, but there is still no consensus.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1495823067565727745




 https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1495824956873220099