Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Haris]

KFWS Radar is apparently down which is “wonderful” timing for DFW just as precip should start picking up.

What precip......

Breaking out now W. Look at wichita falls radar

[bevolon]

KFWS Radar is apparently down which is “wonderful” timing for DFW just as precip should start picking up.

What precip......

Misting pretty heavy here in Keller.

[TropicalTundra]

Getting super light sprinkles of freezing rain right now. Enough to make the porch slippery at the least. I would check the roads but that cold is brutal to me lol .

[TropicalTundra]

Also looks like some light radar returns are appearing just SW if DFW. Looks like FZRA mostly but maybe some of that is sleet?

[HockeyTx82]

Well my driveway has a slight glaze of ice as does the street in my neighborhood. While maybe not what was forecasted per the warning, still not something I don't want to be out in.

Do be safe if you have to get out today.

[Ralph's Weather]

Most school around here are open or delayed. Still forecasted by NWS to get another 0.1" of freezing rain. Temp held on at 30 so surface roads are just wet. Bridges are bad so many wrecks on the major highways across East Texas. I told boss I'll be late as I am going to drive the long way to avoid bridges.

[cstrunk]

Lowest temp overnight at my house was 32.4F. Off and on showers overnight with mist now.

What a tease.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I stepped out on my driveway here in Keller and slid 3 feet with hiking boots on. So a pretty decent coating in this part of the city. Checked the TxDot cams and very few people are trying to tempt fate this morning.

[Edwards Limestone]

Yesterday on the COD website I noticed some sneaky dry air mixing in at the mid-levels...wonder if the SW flow from interior Mexico/Chihuahuan desert combined w/ their dry cT air limited QPF for this system across Texas?

[CaptinCrunch]

Everything is glazed over here in SE Tarrant Co. Back porch, driveway, both with nice glaze so I can imagine what the streets look like.

[Ralph's Weather]

Tyler area is in the very dangerous position of wet roads and ice covered bridges. Glad I stuck to surface roads. Every undpass I passed had a wreck on the above bridge.

[PineyWoods]

Our streets in Tyler weren’t bad at 6:30am
Left for Gun Barrell City and it is a little tricky on overpasses in Athens. Parking lots here in GBC are slick. Y’all be careful out there today

[rwfromkansas]

I still don’t consider it a bust. We had drizzle still, and it’s a skating rink out there since it was thick enough to stick to roads, which isn’t always the case.

My wife said the dog slid down the driveway, so they gave up on the walk she begs for daily.

But, goes to show things can change last second.

[Haris]

I still don’t consider it a bust. We had drizzle still, and it’s a skating rink out there since it was thick enough to stick to roads, which isn’t always the case.

My wife said the dog slid down the driveway, so they gave up on the walk she begs for daily.

But, goes to show things can change last second.

Yeah all that added up overnight. Looks like everything is iced

[orangeblood]

I still don’t consider it a bust. We had drizzle still, and it’s a skating rink out there since it was thick enough to stick to roads, which isn’t always the case.

My wife said the dog slid down the driveway, so they gave up on the walk she begs for daily.

But, goes to show things can change last second.

Agreed that the forecast served its purpose...to keep people off the roads and for good reason but this was a huge model failure. Almost all were forecasting anywhere from .10 to .40 inch QPF and in reality it looks like DFW may get .01 to .02. Just Atrocious, no way to sugar coat it. This one is in the upper tier of modeling busts

[CaptinCrunch]

There is plenty of freezing drizzle across Tarrant Co and western parts of the area that radar is not pricking up. Stay vigilant if getting out, and just saw I35 @ 114 is closed north bound due to multi car wreak involving a patrol car with entrapment, txdot camera shows most vehicles are throughout the grassy medium.

[wxman57]

Delightful 40 degrees and overcast here in southwest Houston. Back to the 70s next week. Still no sign of any future winter weather events across Texas over the next couple of weeks. Come on, summer!

[snowballzzz]

Well, precip was almost non-existent last night but still a slight glaze of ice on the roads. Should easily melt the .01" this afternoon with temps around 32. Wonder if this is our last ice/winter weather threat until the fall.... Not ready for summer!

[Haris]

Snow reports in Austin. Lol

[txtwister78]

Clearly this was a bust with QPF by the models, but I will say Ice is Ice and so once the temps dropped into the mid 20's up in NTX and parts of CTX, travel was going to become dangerous at times (especially on bridges/overpasses with the drizzle in place) so while technically speaking a WWA would have sufficed for this event, I understand why WSW's were used. So, in that regard, I don't think the public in general would view this particular QPF "bust" the same as other weather scenarios. While I think there can be a danger from a "credibility" standpoint in overuse of WSW's for every winter weather related event, I don't see that in play here in terms of how the general public will perceive that as mentioned above (Ice is dangerous regardless of specific amounts).

This may be a topic for another time and perhaps the mets on the board could comment later, but I've often wondered whether we should simply use watches and warnings for winter weather similar to how we forecast/issue guidance for severe weather? Example, when this was clearly a freezing rain event based on sounding data and the pattern in general, I've wondered why not just use a freezing rain watch/warning to specifically define the threat to the public as opposed to using a WSW which encompasses more winter weather scenarios that are of much greater significance/impact. In other words use the WSW for long duration/truly impactful snowstorms/sleet. If I were not as informed about the weather in general, I would think that's as bad as it sounds (Winter Storm Warning). I completed a survey with the NWS a few years back where if I'm not mistaken, they were studying/getting feedback on eliminating the advisory in general for all weather criteria (not just winter) and looking at more defined products of guidance that specifically define the threat/wording to the public. Again, probably getting too much in the weeds here on that but would appreciate one of the board mets commenting later.

We all know model bust happen and so this isn't the first time and obviously won't be the last, but in the end, it does provide another reminder that events down here (particularly winter weather) are often real-time in nature as to how they ultimately unfold and so the moral of the story is use/post models at your own risk (especially several days out). We've all done it (myself included) and so it happens. Mother nature surprises all (even the most experienced Met) as I'm sure they would acknowledge.