SIO: VERNON - Post-Tropical

[zzh]

92S INVEST 220224 1800 13.4S 95.7E SHEM 30 1000

[aspen]

The JTWC upgraded Vernon to 70 kt for 12z, but it could be approaching Cat 2 intensity now and might be a major by this time tomorrow.

[ElectricStorm]

This should be the next major. After an extremely slow start, the SHEM has finally started producing some quality systems over the last few weeks.

[wxman57]

The JTWC upgraded Vernon to 70 kt for 12z, but it could be approaching Cat 2 intensity now and might be a major by this time tomorrow.

By this time tomorrow, it will begin interacting with 93S to its west, likely causing weakening for a 24-48 hour period while they merge. After the merger, the tiny Vernon will be more than twice its current size. It could reach 100 kts prior to the merger beginning, as small cyclones can go up and down in intensity very quickly.

[aspen]

MH intensity Vernon coming up


The current 80 kt BT estimate is likely too low. At least 90 kt looks good.

[wxman57]

Looks 90+ kts now. CIMSS can't handle it. ADT there has a value of 3.9 and 59 kts. Should make 100 kts soon, then it begins interacting with 93S to its northwest. They'll Fujiwara over the weekend. The result will be a weaker but much larger Vernon by Monday. Should regain strength more slowly after the merger.

[Yellow Evan]

Approaching Category 4 already.

[Yellow Evan]

Likely into the Category 4 range. Very good symmetry with an OW eye embedded in WMG. Instantaneous DT is T6.5.

[Hurricane2021]

 https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1497388905087258627

[doomhaMwx]

With Himawari-8 and Meteosat being too far away, India's INSAT and China's Fengyun satellites currently provide the best view of the system.

[Hurricane2021]

With Himawari-8 and Meteosat being too far away, India's INSAT and China's Fengyun satellites currently provide the best view of the system.

https://i.imgur.com/8pR59N0.png
https://i.imgur.com/jQj0N7d.png
https://i.imgur.com/0ubdmh9.png

Incredible!

[ElectricStorm]

Since there's no land in the way, I'm rooting for this to become a monster.

[aspen]

Vernon’s structure has rapidly collapsed due to its interaction with the tropical disturbance to its north — and somehow its 12z BT estimate is still 100 kt. Did the JTWC ever asses it at 105-120 kt for the 6z BT update?

[wxman57]

Vernon’s structure has rapidly collapsed due to its interaction with the tropical disturbance to its north — and somehow its 12z BT estimate is still 100 kt. Did the JTWC ever asses it at 105-120 kt for the 6z BT update?

It's definitely a lot weaker now. Eye disappeared on visible satellite imagery by 09Z. May be down to 75-85 kts. Vernon was expected to weaken as it interacted with and absorbed the disturbance to its northwest.

[aspen]

The JTWC has kept Vernon at 100 kt despite its LLC being exposed.

I just don’t get why tropical cyclone monitoring is such a mess in the Southern Hemisphere.

[aspen]

Interaction with the tropical low has torn Vernon apart. I doubt it’s anything more than a mid-grade tropical storm…so why is it that the JTWC still has it as an 85 kt Cat 2 hurricane? The 12z update will be coming out soon, but that 85 kt estimate for 6z was once again way too high.

Is there any recent ASCAT data for Vernon that suggests it’s anywhere close to the JTWC estimate? Otherwise, there’s no justification for a Cat 2 with shriveled convection and an exposed LLC. I’m wondering if the tropical low might end up as the dominant system.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1498065501649580036