2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Shell Mound]

Just have that feeling it’s going to be another wild season.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1498727519238774784?

So far, the CanSIPS has been crap with VP anomalies.

Everything but the SST graphics has been bugged for the longest time on Tropical Tidbits, not sure what is going on.
I do have a subscription to weathermodels.com, however, and the precip anomaly maps are fine on there interestingly enough:
https://i.ibb.co/jMRNbxQ/ezgif-5-f4495cec6d.gif

The low-latitude ITCZ being projected implies another strong Atlantic Niño during ASO, at least on this modelled run.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

So far, the CanSIPS has been crap with VP anomalies.

Everything but the SST graphics has been bugged for the longest time on Tropical Tidbits, not sure what is going on.
I do have a subscription to weathermodels.com, however, and the precip anomaly maps are fine on there interestingly enough:
https://i.ibb.co/jMRNbxQ/ezgif-5-f4495cec6d.gif

The low-latitude ITCZ being projected implies another strong Atlantic Niño during ASO, at least on this modelled run.

Actually it appears the opposite is true. AMM looks like it is solidly positive:

[Shell Mound]

Everything but the SST graphics has been bugged for the longest time on Tropical Tidbits, not sure what is going on.
I do have a subscription to weathermodels.com, however, and the precip anomaly maps are fine on there interestingly enough:
https://i.ibb.co/jMRNbxQ/ezgif-5-f4495cec6d.gif

The low-latitude ITCZ being projected implies another strong Atlantic Niño during ASO, at least on this modelled run.

Actually it appears the opposite is true. AMM looks like it is solidly positive:
https://i.ibb.co/qxCjd0M/cansips-ssta-Mean-noice-month-atl-6.png
https://i.ibb.co/M8CCN7d/cansips-ssta-Mean-noice-month-global-6.png

While the -ENSO/-PDO/+IOD certainly imply an active season, the greatest warmth in the Atlantic basin is still predominantly concentrated in the subtropics, off the Eastern Seaboard, while the colder-than-average anomalies south of Greenland, southwest of Iceland, clearly indicate a -AMM, at least in my eyes. Even with the Atlantic Niño being absent, the lack of a true +AMO will likely contribute to sinking air, enhanced easterlies, and a suppressive, shearing TUTT in the deep tropics (MDR and Caribbean) during ASO, so I would expect ACE south of 20°N to be relatively limited vs. farther north. If the deep tropics were warmer vs. the subtropics I would certainly be on the lookout for a potentially hyperactive season, but as of now the projected setup looks similar to a blend of 2020–1, which would certainly favour another above-average but not hyperactive season.

[Shell Mound]

It's honestly stunning to see how signs are pointing possibly toward a seventh above average Atlantic season. Since 2016, whether it's due to a highly fortuitous ENSO state evolution or some other factor, the Atlantic has been genuinely relentless.

The active WAM is definitely one of the main culprits to blame for this current high-activity streak. Strong wave train, warms up MDR in time for peak season, handicaps +ENSO...pretty much a perfect storm of sorts (no pun intended ) to produce a consistently active Atlantic. Wonder how long it could last - definitely a possibility that AGW could be prolonging this strong WAM/ASW period for much longer than anticipated and may also be contributing to its dominance in the global atmospheric circulation as well. Something to think about for sure.

Climate change is definitely a double-edged sword. On the one hand expanded Hadley cells associated with warming tend to result in greater AWB via TUTT streamers and also contribute to weaker instability in the deep tropics during the traditional peak of the season. On the other hand climate change also tends to result in a warmer Indian basin, which helps prop up the ASW and Atlantic Niño, thereby contributing to a wetter-than-average Sahel, while also altering the global circulation in such a manner as to hinder springtime +ENSO development under marginal conditions. Climate change may also merely result in “back-loaded” seasons with greater ACE generated during preseason and late in the season. But climate change also contributes to a weaker AMOC and thus suppresses the AMO over time, which makes hyperactive seasons less likely. Maybe climate change will result in more above-average seasons with fairly marginal ACE in the deep tropics vs. the subtropics, while truly hyperactive seasons à la 1933, 2005, or 2017 become less common, ACE-wise.

[NotSparta]

The low-latitude ITCZ being projected implies another strong Atlantic Niño during ASO, at least on this modelled run.

Actually it appears the opposite is true. AMM looks like it is solidly positive:
https://i.ibb.co/qxCjd0M/cansips-ssta-Mean-noice-month-atl-6.png
https://i.ibb.co/M8CCN7d/cansips-ssta-Mean-noice-month-global-6.png

While the -ENSO/-PDO/+IOD certainly imply an active season, the greatest warmth in the Atlantic basin is still predominantly concentrated in the subtropics, off the Eastern Seaboard, while the colder-than-average anomalies south of Greenland, southwest of Iceland, clearly indicate a -AMM, at least in my eyes. Even with the Atlantic Niño being absent, the lack of a true +AMO will likely contribute to sinking air, enhanced easterlies, and a suppressive, shearing TUTT in the deep tropics (MDR and Caribbean) during ASO, so I would expect ACE south of 20°N to be relatively limited vs. farther north. If the deep tropics were warmer vs. the subtropics I would certainly be on the lookout for a potentially hyperactive season, but as of now the projected setup looks similar to a blend of 2020–1, which would certainly favour another above-average but not hyperactive season.

The subtropics are irrelevant when it comes to AMM. The tropical NATL is warmer than the equatorial Atlantic and tropical SATL, so it is clearly +AMM

[hurricane2025]

Lol people with this climate change lol

[crownweather]

I've been researching and going over the data over the last couple of months in preparation for the seasonal outlook I'll be sending out later this month. A couple of things that have popped out at me.

First is the comparison to the ONI chart to past years - https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php. We've been in neutral or a negative ENSO state since JJA, 2019 and this could continue right through most of, if not all of 2022. Looking through the records, the closest years that match this are 1956, 1975, 2000 and 2012. 2 of those seasons had below average ACE (1956, 1975) while the other 2 had above average ACE (2000, 2012).

Another thing that's absolutely noteworthy and eye opening is that there has never been span of 6 consecutive seasons with above average ACE. If we see above average ACE again in 2022, it'll make it 7. The previous consecutive above average ACE record is 3 consecutive seasons from 2003 to 2005. At some point, we've gotta see a below average ACE season, right??

[WiscoWx02]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1499051431554338816




There it goes.....see ya later +AMO! Feel this was well anticipated however. With trades expected to continue for the next week or two out there....think a more -AMO will be in place before long. Obviously still doesn't mean much for the upcoming season itself but will likely hamper early season prediction numbers.

[AlphaToOmega]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1499051431554338816/photo/1

There it goes.....see ya later +AMO! Feel this was well anticipated however. With trades expected to continue for the next week or two out there....think a more -AMO will be in place before long. Obviously still doesn't mean much for the upcoming season itself but will likely hamper early season prediction numbers.

When you say +AMO, do you mean +AMM? The AMO has been consistently positive since February 2019.

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1499051431554338816/photo/1

There it goes.....see ya later +AMO! Feel this was well anticipated however. With trades expected to continue for the next week or two out there....think a more -AMO will be in place before long. Obviously still doesn't mean much for the upcoming season itself but will likely hamper early season prediction numbers.

That warm MDR was definitely an oddity going deep into winter, returning to what you'd expect in March post-2013 now

[wxman57]

I keep up with the AMO on Klotzbach's website (https://tropical.colostate.edu/archive.html#amo). The Gray/Klotzbach method is a little different from previous methods. I believe they look at a slightly different ocean area. The AMO has been mostly negative since 2013, though it has turned positive during the hurricane season. Current (January) value is -0.09C. Phil & I have been debating whether the +AMO that began in 1995 ended in 2013. It has certainly been more negative than positive since 2013.

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO1950-2022.png
http://wxman57.com/images/AMO2000-2022.png

[AlphaToOmega]

Relative to the Global Tropics, MDR SSTAs are dropping precipitously. Based on past seasons, Africa will probably warm the MDR if and only a strong Atlantic Nino does not form and "steal" away heat from the MDR. The Pacific pattern is getting to be well-defined, and the change of an El Nino is dropping; all of our attention should be on the Atlantic pattern as of now.

[AlphaToOmega]

Looking at the CFSv2 zonal wind anomalies, I am thinking that the MDR SSTAs will decrease until late March; after late March, they will probably start rising again.

[mixedDanilo.E]

The +AMO period has not ended. Imo we need to look at impacts too as a symptom of the +AMO and something I feel is understated and since 2017, we been getting nothing but impacts on the US after impacts. The real reason why the AMO is negative looking rn is bc of the constantly +NAOs during winter and then when the WAM lights up and the ridge shifts north ig, the Atlantic just warms up to a +AMO look again. In a -AMO u ain’t gonna get constantly back to back strong year impacts on the US like we had, sure u might get one or 2 but not every year the Atlantic gets bang hammered like crazy. So that case the +AMO is still very much here Imo, the subtropics being warm is just cuz the NAO has been consistently positive weirdly since 2013 and it tries to hide the positive state til the season warms the Atlantic itself.

[mixedDanilo.E]

The low-latitude ITCZ being projected implies another strong Atlantic Niño during ASO, at least on this modelled run.

Actually it appears the opposite is true. AMM looks like it is solidly positive:
https://i.ibb.co/qxCjd0M/cansips-ssta-Mean-noice-month-atl-6.png
https://i.ibb.co/M8CCN7d/cansips-ssta-Mean-noice-month-global-6.png

While the -ENSO/-PDO/+IOD certainly imply an active season, the greatest warmth in the Atlantic basin is still predominantly concentrated in the subtropics, off the Eastern Seaboard, while the colder-than-average anomalies south of Greenland, southwest of Iceland, clearly indicate a -AMM, at least in my eyes. Even with the Atlantic Niño being absent, the lack of a true +AMO will likely contribute to sinking air, enhanced easterlies, and a suppressive, shearing TUTT in the deep tropics (MDR and Caribbean) during ASO, so I would expect ACE south of 20°N to be relatively limited vs. farther north. If the deep tropics were warmer vs. the subtropics I would certainly be on the lookout for a potentially hyperactive season, but as of now the projected setup looks similar to a blend of 2020–1, which would certainly favour another above-average but not hyperactive season.

Do note that for instance in 2017 we had the subtropics warmer than the tropics around this time and things just strongly warmed up in April and May bc the pattern was more favorable for warming - things can change just like this the cooling down of the MDR as well as how the warming of the MDR changed so far.

[SFLcane]

Looking at the CFSv2 zonal wind anomalies, I am thinking that the MDR SSTAs will decrease until late March; after late March, they will probably start rising again.

Of course they will warm we do this every season. The MDR looked like crap this time last year and boom. For those that like to track TC's its not much to be concerned about. Without el nino i am anticipating another busy season this year so enjoy the time off.

Speaking off sst's the western part of the basin is in fuego especially near Florida.

[cycloneye]

CPC now has a new and more clear graphic for NAO. Shell Mound, I added the new links to the first post list.

[Shell Mound]

I keep up with the AMO on Klotzbach's website (https://tropical.colostate.edu/archive.html#amo). The Gray/Klotzbach method is a little different from previous methods. I believe they look at a slightly different ocean area. The AMO has been mostly negative since 2013, though it has turned positive during the hurricane season. Current (January) value is -0.09C. Phil & I have been debating whether the +AMO that began in 1995 ended in 2013. It has certainly been more negative than positive since 2013.

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO1950-2022.png
http://wxman57.com/images/AMO2000-2022.png

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO1950-2022.png

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO2000-2022.png

For reference, one may also bring up the following:

To add to this, I would wish to inquire: Has anyone composed a graph by which to compare the trend in ACE index, by gridded latitudinal/longitudinal boxes, since 2012? Such a graph could illustrate how the mean location of ACE generation, especially by major hurricanes, has migrated from the MDR and Caribbean to the subtropics, based on a comparison between ACE generated over respective time frames before (1995–2012) vs. after 2012 (2013–present)—that is, ACE generation per TC after minus before 2012. I think such a graph would better illustrate how the AMO index has likely gone negative since 2012, based solely on the shift in mean ACE generation (which is heavily weighted toward major-hurricane days) from the MDR/Caribbean to the subtropics.

Thought this was an interesting idea, so here's a map of the change in annual ACE in 5x5 degree gridboxes between the 2013-2019 period and the 1995-2012 period, and a few other comparisons to the 1970-1994 -AMO period. I would caution looking too deeply into this as the recent 7-season period is quite short, but it does highlight the relative quiet of the western Caribbean in the past decade. Some of the changes on the fringes of the basin may be related to increased usage and coverage of satellites, but the effect is probably not very considerable as I don't think major hurricanes, which contribute most to ACE, would be missed (a 100kt major hurricane instantaneously generates 8x more ACE than a 35kt tropical storm).

A relevant paper was published in the Monthly Weather Review in 1998, "The 1995 and 1996 North Atlantic Hurricane Seasons: A Return of the Tropical-Only Hurricane ", noting the uptick in tropically-based activity in what we now understand to have been the start of an +AMO period.

214KB. Source: Generated myself in QGIS using HURDAT data


For comparison's sake here's the -AMO 1970-1994 period minus the 1995-2012 period:
215KB


And finally, 2013-2019 compared to the -AMO 1970-1994 period:
156KB

The first graph in particular highlights the migration of the stronger storms into the Sargasso Sea and the easternmost Atlantic since 2012.

[crownweather]

Latest seasonal forecast from ECMWF Seas 5 is out and it shows the potential for a slightly above average season.

[AlphaToOmega]

Latest seasonal forecast from ECMWF Seas 5 is out and it shows the potential for a slightly above average season.

https://i.imgur.com/TekTnTs.png

https://i.imgur.com/DSve0k3.png

https://i.imgur.com/AR9eAI0.png

The ECMWF has also switched from showing a +AMM for June to showing a -AMM for June.