BoB: 01B - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

90B INVEST 220301 1800 6.0N 91.0E IO 15 0

[doomhaMwx]

It's rather unusual to have something this early in the NIO. Looks like this was also spawned by the recent strong MJO + equatorial Rossby wave that caused an uptick in TC activity in the eastern SIO.

ABIO10 PGTW 021430

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY
395NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 021040Z SSMIS 94GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN
OBSCURED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL
AS 90B IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM SEA TEMPURATURES (29-30C) AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHING OVER THE NEXT 36-
48 HOURS. AS IT REACHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SRI LANKA AND THE
SOUTH EASTERN COAST OF INDIA THE WINDOW FOR 90B TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IS LIMITED WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING IT WILL
REACH LAND AT ROUGHLY THE SAME INSTANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 02.03.2022

YESTERDAY'S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) AND
ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN (EIO) LAY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BOB
AND ADJOINING EIO AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 2ND MARCH, 2022 WITH VERTICAL
EXTENSION UPTO 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL.
IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME A WELL-MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
AND CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SRI LANKA COAST DURING NEXT
24 HOURS AND TOWARDS TAMIL NADU COAST DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BOB AND ADJOINING EIO
BETWEEN LATITUDE 2.0N & 10.0N AND LONGITUDE 82.0E & 90.0E IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA . MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS
MINUS 88 DEG C. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ISOLATED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL & NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120 HRS:
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
LOW MODERATE HIGH NIL NIL

[wxman57]

IMD went from "NIL" chance of any development to "HIGH" in 24 hours. We've been issuing advisories on it for the past 2 days. Probably won't amount to much more than a depression passing north of Sri Lanka Friday and dissipating in high shear southeast of Chennai over the weekend.

[wxman57]

Officially a depression now. IMD upgraded it.

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC has upgraded it to TS 01B (IMD: deep depression).





Not the prettiest thing ever, but it's actually rather unusual to have a TC in the North Indian Ocean in March. IMD and JTWC/NOAA records show that the basin has only seen a handful of TCs in March since 1907.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/warning_center/status/1499929462766456844

[Iceresistance]

The NIO must have noticed that the Atlantic & EPAC was having early starts in the past few years, & wants to join in too!

A Northern Hemisphere TC in March is not common, even in the WPAC.

[wxman57]

The only official agency for the basin is the India Meteorological Department. They have yet to upgrade the now weakening system. Therefore, it is not officially a tropical cyclone.