Texas Spring 2022

[bubba hotep]

ICON has a hell of a snowstorm

Was just coming to post that both the 18z 12k NAM and ICON look really good at H5.

And for fun, the ICON. Dropping the hammer over DFW.

[bubba hotep]

Also, for tomorrow morning. And I almost forgot, picked up a trace of sleet this morning from some sleet showers.

[HockeyTx82]

ICON has a hell of a snowstorm

Where and when? Texas is a big state

[url]https://i.ibb.co/X7Fczyb/764-DDA9-D-8-D72-4-DB6-84-A2-787-DE04-D3-D21.png [/url]

Ignore the dark green. Icon can’t show mix. It’s all below freezing

[rwfromkansas]

It does appear to warm up quickly after, but that's not too surprising for March.

It is trending into a bigger potential event. I could see 3-4 possibly in DFW with the ICON, even with temps around 30 or so.

[bubba hotep]

Happy Hour GFS

[orangeblood]

Happy Hour GFS

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022030718/105/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

H5 looks similar to snowmaggedon!! Doesn't mean we have the same PWAT values but upper levels look really good

[Iceresistance]

ICON has a hell of a snowstorm

Where and when? Texas is a big state

[url]https://i.ibb.co/X7Fczyb/764-DDA9-D-8-D72-4-DB6-84-A2-787-DE04-D3-D21.png [/url]

Ignore the dark green. Icon can’t show mix. It’s all below freezing

WeatherNerds has Rain/Ice/Mix/Snow feature for the ICON

[Iceresistance]

Happy Hour GFS

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022030718/105/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

I get OOFED with 4-7 inches of snow on the 10:1 Ratio

Kuchera Ratio is more impressive, with 6-10 inches

[CaptinCrunch]

All this cold and snow talk and we are missing our resident Heat Miser but then again that up here in NTX and we know how he hates the North

[EnnisTx]

It's got some attention now.

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Through Early Next Week/

A rather rapid warm-up is expected Wednesday and Thursday, as
sunshine and southerly winds return to the area. However, this
warmth will be short-lived, as another strong cold front is
expected to arrive late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
This front will bring another blast of cold, arctic air to North
and Central Texas, sending temperatures plummeting into the 20s
and 30s across much of the area by Friday morning.

Meanwhile, a potent upper-level trough will be approaching from
the west early Friday morning. Ascent will increase ahead of this
feature, resulting in the development of rain and potentially
wintry weather. The most likely areas to see wintry weather
continue to be near and north of a Goldthwaite-DFW-Paris line
through Friday morning; however, given the proximity of the upper-
level trough to North and Central Texas, have advertised a
rain/sleet mix across most of the area Friday afternoon as the
system departs to our east.

Regarding precipitation types, latest forecast soundings suggest
mostly snow across our northwestern counties, with sub-freezing
temperature profiles and saturation within the dendritic growth
zone. A transition to a sleet/snow mix and eventually a rain/sleet
mix is expected further south and east as forecast soundings
indicate the presence of a warm layer aloft. However, there is
still significant uncertainty in the temperature forecast on
Friday, and any changes in temperatures could have a significant
impact on the forecast precipitation types. Latest guidance has
continued to trend colder with this update, so continue to closely
monitor the forecast over the next few days as additional changes
are likely.

It`s still rather early to determine specific accumulations, but a
lack of column moisture should hopefully keep precipitation rates
on the lighter side. Expected impacts will be assessed as we get a
better handle on potential accumulations and temperature trends.
One thing is certain, however... Friday will be a blustery and
dreary day across North and Central Texas, so don`t put up your
winter gear just yet!

Widespread freezing temperatures are expected Friday night, with
another light freeze possible Saturday night. Be sure to protect
any sensitive vegetation before the cold arrives. Otherwise, we
should quickly warm up over the weekend, with temperatures
returning to the 60s and 70s by Sunday. Warmer weather will
continue into early next week.

Barnes

[bubba hotep]

Happy Hour GFS

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022030718/105/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

H5 looks similar to snowmaggedon!! Doesn't mean we have the same PWAT values but upper levels look really good

I would fade the surface cooler than what the GFS is showing. If trends continue then this could be a nice event.

[CaptinCrunch]

GFS and EURO both have been extremely poor handling temps with these deep arctic air masses. I would watch the ICON temp profiles since the ICON has done very well with the last 2 Arctic events. I expect GFS and EURO to be 3-7 degrees to warm on both ends of the temperature range.

[Haris]

GFS and EURO both have been extremely poor handling temps with these deep arctic air masses. I would watch the ICON temp profiles since the ICON has done very well with the last 2 Arctic events. I expect GFS and EURO to be 3-7 degrees to warm on both ends of the temperature range.

Yup. Surface will be several degrees colder than even gfs. Widespread snow very possible unless we see the storm shear out like the euro. Bears watching for now

[cheezyWXguy]

Happy Hour GFS

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022030718/105/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

H5 looks similar to snowmaggedon!! Doesn't mean we have the same PWAT values but upper levels look really good

Interesting you bring that up, because this event reminds me a lot of the March snow event a month or so later that dropped 6+” of snow on me when I lived in Plano. Do you know how this event compares to that one?

[HockeyTx82]

Happy Hour GFS

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022030718/105/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

H5 looks similar to snowmaggedon!! Doesn't mean we have the same PWAT values but upper levels look really good

Interesting you bring that up, because this event reminds me a lot of the March snow event a month or so later that dropped 6+” of snow on me when I lived in Plano. Do you know how this event compares to that one?

I just had pictures pop up from that event two days ago on my OneDrive. That was a doozey for sure.

[orangeblood]

FW NWS now coming around....

[orangeblood]

Happy Hour GFS

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022030718/105/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

H5 looks similar to snowmaggedon!! Doesn't mean we have the same PWAT values but upper levels look really good

Interesting you bring that up, because this event reminds me a lot of the March snow event a month or so later that dropped 6+” of snow on me when I lived in Plano. Do you know how this event compares to that one?

Doesn't look like it...a decent analog looks like early March 2015

March 4, 2015


This Friday March 11, 2022 forecast

[Iceresistance]

H5 looks similar to snowmaggedon!! Doesn't mean we have the same PWAT values but upper levels look really good

Interesting you bring that up, because this event reminds me a lot of the March snow event a month or so later that dropped 6+” of snow on me when I lived in Plano. Do you know how this event compares to that one?

Doesn't look like it...a decent analog looks like early March 2015

March 4, 2015


This Friday March 11, 2022 forecast

Ninja'd

I was going to say that this could rival the March 4th, 2015 Snowstorm in my area.

[orangeblood]

According to GFS, DFW Column cools rapidly once precip starts falling...

[Ntxw]

March 2008 (second storm on 7th) where 6-9" of snow was dumped on Denton-Collin ->Red River counties where the sharp changeover was though this is more likely widespread. Has some similarities.

1924 mid March also had a snow storm but it's difficult getting maps before 1979. It holds the monthly record.