2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

It would definitely be interesting to see how strong this -ENSO state gets. Because historically speaking, aren't cool neutral or weak La Ninas associated with very brutal, landfall-heavy seasons?

[Kingarabian]

It would definitely be interesting to see how strong this -ENSO state gets. Because historically speaking, aren't cool neutral or weak La Ninas associated with very brutal, landfall-heavy seasons?

I believe a +ENSO year followed by -ENSO are the most brutal. Like a 2005, 2010, 2017 (2016 still had a lot of +ENSO in it despite Nino 3.4 meeting La Nina threshold thanks to the preceding super El Nino). and 2020.

[Yellow Evan]

Third year -ENSO years are pretty limited: 2000, 1985, 1975, 1956, 1917, 1910, and 1894. Not the best batch and outside of 1985, all were less active than the 1st and 2nd year -ENSO counterparts. Of those years I like 1956 the best as an anolog because Africa was in a wet phase.

[AlphaToOmega]

Third year -ENSO years are pretty limited: 2000, 1985, 1975, 1956, 1917, 1910, and 1894. Not the best batch and outside of 1985, all were less active than the 1st and 2nd year -ENSO counterparts. Of those years I like 1956 the best as an anolog because Africa was in a wet phase.

What would make 3rd-year La Niñas less active than 2nd or 1st-year La Niñas? Is it the cooler Atlantic?

[cycloneye]

NMME for SSTA's are cooler at MDR for ASO.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1501169147362873349




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1501267024214908931

[mixedDanilo.E]

NMME for SSTA's are cooler at MDR for ASO.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1501169147362873349

Tbh I wouldn’t take it at face value like that cuz modes basically showing the same setup like that every single year now since 2016. MDR will prob warm around the time the season starts.

[mixedDanilo.E]

Third year -ENSO years are pretty limited: 2000, 1985, 1975, 1956, 1917, 1910, and 1894. Not the best batch and outside of 1985, all were less active than the 1st and 2nd year -ENSO counterparts. Of those years I like 1956 the best as an anolog because Africa was in a wet phase.

Tbf I hold off on saying 3rd year Niña this year cuz rn - the CFS is an outlier with it showing the La Niña remaing as strong as it is thru the season.

[mixedDanilo.E]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-sum ... mary_6.png

BoM model graph CFS clearly the most agressive one.

[cycloneye]

NMME for SSTA's are cooler at MDR for ASO.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1501169147362873349

Bug.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1501219619507511300

[FireRat]

It would definitely be interesting to see how strong this -ENSO state gets. Because historically speaking, aren't cool neutral or weak La Ninas associated with very brutal, landfall-heavy seasons?

It really will be interesting to see what '22 will bring. I agree with you, I respect the Neutral setups more than either Nino or Nina, because they really can be the mix of active with landfalls. I believe 2005 was one such season, which also was neutral to weak la nina if I'm not mistaken.

Strong Nina years tend to have many recurves, and El Nino seasons tend to be slow with few landfalls. Neutral, despite sounding more "normal", isn't a good thing if you're worried about an impactful season IMO.

[Category5Kaiju]

It would definitely be interesting to see how strong this -ENSO state gets. Because historically speaking, aren't cool neutral or weak La Ninas associated with very brutal, landfall-heavy seasons?

It really will be interesting to see what '22 will bring. I agree with you, I respect the Neutral setups more than either Nino or Nina, because they really can be the mix of active with landfalls. I believe 2005 was one such season, which also was neutral to weak la nina if I'm not mistaken.

Strong Nina years tend to have many recurves, and El Nino seasons tend to be slow with few landfalls. Neutral, despite sounding more "normal", isn't a good thing if you're worried about an impactful season IMO.

Exactly. I mean, you look at moderate to strong La Nina years like 1995, 1999, 2010, 2011, and last year, and you'll notice how while there are definitely land impacts, many of their strong storms recurve. Now, obviously, there are definitely years like that such as 1955 or 2020 that feature a notorious high amount of land impacts, so this alone is not a guarantee or a statistically significant observation. But then you look at years like 1964, 2005, 2008, and 2017 that are weak La Ninas, and that's when you notice that there is definitely a historic handful of weak -ENSO years that are extremely ripe for powerful landfalls.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think it is also worth mentioning that I have definitely seen comparisons of this year being potentially similar to 2000 (and rightfully so, as that year was the last third-year La Nina year that occurred since the +AMO began in 1995). However, I am not quite sure how much such should be relied upon as a tell-all crystal ball, as the 1998/1999 La Nina was continuous and strong, while 2020/2021 La Nina did have a break in MJJ and JJA of 2021 and only reached moderate levels at its peak. I'd have to imagine that this difference *could* lead to somewhat different outcomes for this year compared to what we saw in 2000?

[aspen]

NMME for SSTA's are cooler at MDR for ASO.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1501169147362873349

Bug.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1501219619507511300

If the SSTA configuration still holds up despite this, then it would suggest another west-based season like 2020 (although probably nowhere near as active). A patch of above-normal SSTs from 50-80W and 20-30N could be concerning because storms heading towards the East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda could find conditions suitable for a phase of RI while they’re less than a few days out from land, similar to Florence’s second peak in 2018. This is a pretty situational threat, though, and would be nullified by a north-displaced ITCZ and weak ridging.

[Shell Mound]

The ECMWF has also switched from showing a +AMM for June to showing a -AMM for June.

Getting hyperactive seasons seems to have become more difficult over the past decade. Since 2010 only two years—2017 and 2020—have been hyperactive, 2020 only barely so. Most years since 2010 have seen few intense long-trackers vs. the period of 1995–2010. (Between 1995 and 2010 no fewer than eight hyperactive seasons occurred.) Even the recent stretch of above-average seasons has been largely characterised by slightly-above-average activity at best, 2017 and 2020 excepted. (2020, unlike 2017, also featured a dearth of intense long-trackers, aside from the occurrence of Teddy.) Given current indicators I do not expect the ongoing trend to change during ASO of 2022. I also surmise that the decline in the frequency of hyperactive seasons since 2010 also confirms the end of the +AMO.

The forces that hold up +AMO are a bit different than pre-2013 (more Africa dependent with weaker AMOC and less -NAO) but outside of late 2013 and late spring in 2015, 2018, and 2019, we haven’t had any sustained -AMO configuration (where the Canary Current is explicitly cold). If there was a true -AMO, most seasons would be at or below average, with virtually no hyperactive years.

Which databases are you relying on for this assertion? If I recall correctly virtually every spring since 2013 has featured a coolish Canary Current vs. the northwestern North Atlantic. Only 2017 and maybe 2020 were exceptions to this rule. Aside from those two seasons every year since 2013 has been only slightly above average in terms of ACE, and some have been average or below average. +AMOs tend to feature many well-above-average and/or hyperactive years; just look at 1926–69 and 1995–2010. In my view, a canonical +AMO cycle would have similar springtime SST profiles in the Atlantic basin relative to those of the two aforementioned periods, which were unquestionably those of a +AMO regime. Post 2010 (and especially post 2013) we have not been in a canonical +AMO.

[AlphaToOmega]

Getting hyperactive seasons seems to have become more difficult over the past decade. Since 2010 only two years—2017 and 2020—have been hyperactive, 2020 only barely so. Most years since 2010 have seen few intense long-trackers vs. the period of 1995–2010. (Between 1995 and 2010 no fewer than eight hyperactive seasons occurred.) Even the recent stretch of above-average seasons has been largely characterised by slightly-above-average activity at best, 2017 and 2020 excepted. (2020, unlike 2017, also featured a dearth of intense long-trackers, aside from the occurrence of Teddy.) Given current indicators I do not expect the ongoing trend to change during ASO of 2022. I also surmise that the decline in the frequency of hyperactive seasons since 2010 also confirms the end of the +AMO.

The forces that hold up +AMO are a bit different than pre-2013 (more Africa dependent with weaker AMOC and less -NAO) but outside of late 2013 and late spring in 2015, 2018, and 2019, we haven’t had any sustained -AMO configuration (where the Canary Current is explicitly cold). If there was a true -AMO, most seasons would be at or below average, with virtually no hyperactive years.

Which databases are you relying on for this assertion? If I recall correctly virtually every spring since 2013 has featured a coolish Canary Current vs. the northwestern North Atlantic. Only 2017 and maybe 2020 were exceptions to this rule. Aside from those two seasons every year since 2013 has been only slightly above average in terms of ACE, and some have been average or below average. +AMOs tend to feature many well-above-average and/or hyperactive years; just look at 1926–69 and 1995–2010. In my view, a canonical +AMO cycle would have similar springtime SST profiles in the Atlantic basin relative to those of the two aforementioned periods, which were unquestionably those of a +AMO regime. Post 2010 (and especially post 2013) we have not been in a canonical +AMO.

I cannot speak for Yellow Evan, but I get my AMO data from here: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list/#EPNP, specifically here: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.data
The Canary Current pattern would be better represented with the AMM: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/monthly/AMM/ammsst.data

[NotSparta]

Getting hyperactive seasons seems to have become more difficult over the past decade. Since 2010 only two years—2017 and 2020—have been hyperactive, 2020 only barely so. Most years since 2010 have seen few intense long-trackers vs. the period of 1995–2010. (Between 1995 and 2010 no fewer than eight hyperactive seasons occurred.) Even the recent stretch of above-average seasons has been largely characterised by slightly-above-average activity at best, 2017 and 2020 excepted. (2020, unlike 2017, also featured a dearth of intense long-trackers, aside from the occurrence of Teddy.) Given current indicators I do not expect the ongoing trend to change during ASO of 2022. I also surmise that the decline in the frequency of hyperactive seasons since 2010 also confirms the end of the +AMO.

The forces that hold up +AMO are a bit different than pre-2013 (more Africa dependent with weaker AMOC and less -NAO) but outside of late 2013 and late spring in 2015, 2018, and 2019, we haven’t had any sustained -AMO configuration (where the Canary Current is explicitly cold). If there was a true -AMO, most seasons would be at or below average, with virtually no hyperactive years.

Which databases are you relying on for this assertion? If I recall correctly virtually every spring since 2013 has featured a coolish Canary Current vs. the northwestern North Atlantic. Only 2017 and maybe 2020 were exceptions to this rule. Aside from those two seasons every year since 2013 has been only slightly above average in terms of ACE, and some have been average or below average. +AMOs tend to feature many well-above-average and/or hyperactive years; just look at 1926–69 and 1995–2010. In my view, a canonical +AMO cycle would have similar springtime SST profiles in the Atlantic basin relative to those of the two aforementioned periods, which were unquestionably those of a +AMO regime. Post 2010 (and especially post 2013) we have not been in a canonical +AMO.

The fact that the Atlantic can muster up hyperactive seasons at all is proof that there's a +AMO. Back in the -AMO even above average seasons were few and far between, much unlike the 6 (and perhaps 7 this year) consecutive above average seasons

[cycloneye]

The odds for having an active North Atlantic hurricane season went up after the CPC March update came out. See the details at the ENSO updates thread. In other words, the indicators are going from now on to be very important.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

While MDR SSTs have fallen since the beginning of the month thanks to stronger trades, I would expect them to rebound in April if the EPS verifies here:

[Shell Mound]

The forces that hold up +AMO are a bit different than pre-2013 (more Africa dependent with weaker AMOC and less -NAO) but outside of late 2013 and late spring in 2015, 2018, and 2019, we haven’t had any sustained -AMO configuration (where the Canary Current is explicitly cold). If there was a true -AMO, most seasons would be at or below average, with virtually no hyperactive years.

Which databases are you relying on for this assertion? If I recall correctly virtually every spring since 2013 has featured a coolish Canary Current vs. the northwestern North Atlantic. Only 2017 and maybe 2020 were exceptions to this rule. Aside from those two seasons every year since 2013 has been only slightly above average in terms of ACE, and some have been average or below average. +AMOs tend to feature many well-above-average and/or hyperactive years; just look at 1926–69 and 1995–2010. In my view, a canonical +AMO cycle would have similar springtime SST profiles in the Atlantic basin relative to those of the two aforementioned periods, which were unquestionably those of a +AMO regime. Post 2010 (and especially post 2013) we have not been in a canonical +AMO.

The fact that the Atlantic can muster up hyperactive seasons at all is proof that there's a +AMO. Back in the -AMO even above average seasons were few and far between, much unlike the 6 (and perhaps 7 this year) consecutive above average seasons

Archived satellite imagery suggests that seasonal ACE from 1971–94 was likely significantly underestimated (reanalysis has also significantly bolstered ACE in a number of earlier cases, e.g., 1970). A number of hurricanes and even majors likely went undocumented as such, to not mention numerous “depressions” that were actually (sub-)tropical storms, and an objective reanalysis would likely substantially increase the MSW of several existing storms, among them Blanche, Doris, Eloise, and Gladys (1975); Candice and Gloria (1976); Cora, Ella, Flossie, and Greta (1978); Gloria (1979); Bonnie, Frances, and Ivan (1980); Emily, Floyd, Harvey, and Jose (1981); Diana (1984); Helene and Joan (1988); and so on. 1980, 1988, and/or 1989 may well have been hyperactive.

[Yellow Evan]

Which databases are you relying on for this assertion? If I recall correctly virtually every spring since 2013 has featured a coolish Canary Current vs. the northwestern North Atlantic. Only 2017 and maybe 2020 were exceptions to this rule. Aside from those two seasons every year since 2013 has been only slightly above average in terms of ACE, and some have been average or below average. +AMOs tend to feature many well-above-average and/or hyperactive years; just look at 1926–69 and 1995–2010. In my view, a canonical +AMO cycle would have similar springtime SST profiles in the Atlantic basin relative to those of the two aforementioned periods, which were unquestionably those of a +AMO regime. Post 2010 (and especially post 2013) we have not been in a canonical +AMO.

The fact that the Atlantic can muster up hyperactive seasons at all is proof that there's a +AMO. Back in the -AMO even above average seasons were few and far between, much unlike the 6 (and perhaps 7 this year) consecutive above average seasons

Archived satellite imagery suggests that seasonal ACE from 1971–94 was likely significantly underestimated (reanalysis has also significantly bolstered ACE in a number of earlier cases, e.g., 1970). A number of hurricanes and even majors likely went undocumented as such, to not mention numerous “depressions” that were actually (sub-)tropical storms, and an objective reanalysis would likely substantially increase the MSW of several existing storms, among them Blanche, Doris, Eloise, and Gladys (1975); Candice and Gloria (1976); Cora, Ella, Flossie, and Greta (1978); Gloria (1979); Bonnie, Frances, and Ivan (1980); Emily, Floyd, Harvey, and Jose (1981); Diana (1984); Helene and Joan (1988); and so on. 1980, 1988, and/or 1989 may well have been hyperactive.

Most of the storm’s mentioned had aircraft confirmation through them, so it’s unlikely there are any huge errors. Yes, some higher latitude stuff was highly likely to be undetected but remember observations were a lot better and a lot more consistent after the Dvorak technique was put into use, after the first geostationary satellites were launched, and the modern version of Dvorak was established in 1984 (important for the non-recon observed upper end systems). 1980 is the only season with a shot of getting near hyperactive of the batch which would put it at 1 hyperactive year in 25 seasons.

As for the SST configuration, we still have more often than not a +AMO horseshoe even if it’s further north and east than 1995-2012.